Germany vs. Paraguay Prediction, Picks, Lineups for World Cup Round of 32

After South Africa vs. Canada opened the World Cup knockout stage on Sunday, we get our first full schedule of Round of 32 matches on Monday, June 29. Following Brazil vs. Japan at 1 p.m. ET, Germany vs. Paraguay kicks off at 4:30 p.m. ET on FOX, taking place at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough. 

According to PrizePicks Team Picks, Germany is favored with a 1.29x payout to win compared to Paraguay’s 8.33x payout to emerge victorious in full-time (90 minutes + stoppage time).

Germany won Group E with an impressive +6 goal differential, but they come off a disappointing 2-1 loss vs. Ecuador on Matchday 3. Paraguay rebounded from Matchday 1’s 4-1 loss vs. the United States by posting a 1-0 win vs. Türkiye and a 0-0 draw vs. Australia to qualify for the knockout stage.

After logging back-to-back clean sheets, will Paraguay keep up their defensive efforts against a talented Germany squad? Let’s dive into our Germany vs. Paraguay prediction and picks for Monday’s World Cup Round of 32 match, including the spread, total goals, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

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Germany vs. Paraguay World Cup Round of 32 Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Monday, June 29

How to watch Germany vs. Paraguay: FOX (English) / Telemundo (Spanish)

Kickoff Time: 4:30 p.m. ET

Venue: Gillette Stadium (Boston Stadium), Foxborough, Massachusetts

We have a few storylines to watch entering Monday afternoon’s fixture, including injuries. The center of Germany’s defense took a major hit, as center-back Nico Schlotterbeck suffered a ligament injury in his left ankle vs. Ivory Coast and is out for the tournament.

Left-back Nathaniel Brown was also absent on Matchday 3 for Germany, but he’s expected to be back in action for today’s Round of 32 match.

Those defensive concerns have been overshadowed by a strong German attack, recording 3.33 goals per match in the group stage.

Paraguay’s become very familiar with suspensions, as MF Miguel Almirón was the first player to receive a red card for covering his mouth on Matchday 2. He returns on Monday, but now MF Diego Gómez is serving a one-game suspension for yellow card accumulation in the group stage.

When Almirón was serving his suspension vs. Australia, Paraguay shifted from a 4-4-2 to an ultra-conservative 5-3-2. Perhaps this was La Albirroja’s desperation for a result to qualify for the knockout stage, as playing for a draw was enough.

We’ve seen Paraguay mostly operate in a low block while leaning on a counter-attack for opportunities to score. WhoScored gives Paraguay a 33.6% possession rate, which ranks as the third-lowest mark in the 48-team group stage. 

Germany is on the opposite end of the spectrum with a 61.7% possession rate that’s the ninth-highest mark at World Cup 2026. They typically look to maintain possession with aggressive high presses.

More than likely, Paraguay’s best shot may come in the form of making this one ugly and forcing penalty shots. With that said, another conservative approach could be ahead with Paraguay sitting in a low block and waiting for their moment to counter-attack.

Is that enough against a talented Germany squad, though?

Germany vs. Paraguay: Favorite to Win, Spread, Total Goals – Monday, June 29

As one of the European powers, Germany is a heavy favorite for today’s match, including a 1.29x payout to win and a 2.04x payout if they cover the -1.5 spread.

Meanwhile, Paraguay will likely look to make this a cagey, low-scoring match. Under 2.5 goals holds a 2.12x payout — which would aid Paraguay in keeping it close.

The options do not stop there, as PrizePicks Team Picks features payouts for the winner, spread, total goals, and both teams to score for Germany vs. Paraguay in regulation.

Winner Payout: Germany – 1.29x | Tie – 4.76x | Paraguay – 8.33x

Spread: Germany -1.5 (2.04x Payout) 

Total Goals: 2.5 (Over – 1.66x | Under – 2.12x)

Both Teams to Score: Yes 2.04x | No 1.72x

Payouts show potential returns on correct Team Picks predictions. A 2x payout returns $200 on a $100 entry. Lower multipliers reflect outcomes users are picking as more likely. Payouts are live as of writing and subject to change.

Team Picks markets are settled after full-time (90 minutes + stoppage). Extra time and penalties are not included. 

Make your Germany vs. Paraguay prediction on spread or goals on PrizePicks Team Picks — available in 35 states!

Germany vs. Paraguay Prediction on Spread for World Cup Round of 32

Paraguay has a tall task ahead and will look to avoid a repeat of a lopsided loss vs. USMNT on Matchday 1. What do the stats and trends say for Germany vs. Paraguay, helping your World Cup knockout predictions for PrizePicks?

• Paraguay barely had a pulse on the attack in the group stage, proven by 0.37 expected goals (xG) that finished second-to-last and 1.67 shots on target per match (third-fewest), via Opta Analyst. That led to only 2 goals over three matches.
• Germany has their concerns on defense following Schlotterbeck’s injury, but they’ve still conceded only 2.33 shots on target per match (seventh-lowest). For context, that’s tied with Morocco, which has one of the tournament’s elite defenses.
• The Germans have tallied 6.76 xGs (fourth) and are tied with France for a tournament-high 22 shots on target. With that said, Germany has still found success despite allowing 1.3 goals per match.
• Frankly, Paraguay could be in trouble of another rout, similar to Matchday 1’s 4-1 result vs. the United States. Germany likes to dominate the ball, and Paraguay’s 71.3% successful pass rate (lowest) sets off the alarms against a team that has forced 27 high turnovers (eighth-most), which is winning the ball in the attacking third.
• Those possession worries could mirror Paraguay surrendering 13 and 16 shots in the box vs. the USA and Türkiye. Germany’s quality and ability to finish could lead to plenty of goals.
• Paraguay ST Julio Enciso has logged 0.07 xG (23rd percentile) and 1.67 shots per 90 (37th percentile), via FotMob, and his running mate, ST Gabriel Ávalos, stepped into the starting lineup on Matchday 3 and posted just 1 shot. Simply put, this attack likely lacks the firepower to expose Germany’s center-back injury.

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Germany vs. Paraguay Lineups for World Cup Round of 32 – Monday, June 29

Here are the projected Germany vs. Paraguay lineups for Monday’s World Cup Round of 32 match in the knockout stage. Lineups are not official and are based on historical data.

Germany Lineup vs. Paraguay Today

Projected Formation: 4-2-3-1

• Goalkeeper: Manuel Neuer
• Defense: Nathaniel Brown, Antonio Rüdiger, Jonathan Tah, Joshua Kimmich 
• Midfield: Aleksandar Pavlovic, Felix Nmecha
• Attacking Midfield: Jamal Musiala, Florian Wirtz, Leroy Sané
• Striker: Kai Havertz

Paraguay Lineup vs. Germany Today

Projected Formation: 4-4-2

• Goalkeeper: Orlando Gill
• Defense: Júnior Alonso, Gustavo Gómez, Gustavo Velázquez, Juan Cáceres
• Midfield: Matías Galarza, Mauricio, Andrés Cubas, Miguel Almirón
• Forwards: Julio Enciso, Gabriel Ávalos

Germany vs. Paraguay Picks, Player Stats for World Cup Round of 32: 6/29/26

Germany’s attack and ability to control possession could lead to success in the World Cup Round of 32, and that could come via Florian Wirtz and Kai Havertz for Germany vs. Paraguay player picks on PrizePicks. 

Germany LW Florian Wirtz Pick vs. Paraguay – 53.5 Passes Attempted

• Florian Wirtz regularly created chances for Germany in the group stage, totaling 0.71 assists (89th percentile) and 2.85 chances created per 90 (85th percentile). 
• He’s received plenty of work with 84.31 touches per 90 (94th percentile), contributing to 53.00 successful passes per 90 (92nd percentile).
• Wirtz played for only 73 minutes with 33 passes attempted on Matchday 3, drawing some concern for this projection. However, he racked up 71.5 passes attempted per match in his first two World Cup outings. 
• Further, Germany’s left winger recorded 55.0 passes attempted per match over six UEFA World Cup qualifying fixtures.
• This projection may simply come down to if Germany wants to work the left side of the pitch. Paraguay RB Juan Cáceres could be vulnerable with 2.52 fouls committed (sixth percentile) and 2.52 recoveries per 90 (23rd percentile), while being dribbled past 2.16 times per 90 (seventh percentile). 
• Wirtz’s 7 successful dribbles at World Cup 2026 (90th percentile) adds to the favorable matchup.

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Germany ST Kai Havertz Pick vs. Paraguay – 3 Shots

• In Germany’s disappointing 2-1 loss vs. Ecuador, Kai Havertz played for only 60 minutes with 1 shot.
• Against Curaçao and Ivory Coast, Havertz totaled 87.5 minutes and 3.5 shots per match. 
• As mentioned, Paraguay allowed plenty of shots in the box vs. the USA and Türkiye, and the 6-foot-4 Havertz is a tall target with 1.53 headed shots per 90 (89th percentile).
• Germany’s striker should have a height advantage over Paraguay CBs Gustavo Gómez (6’1”) and Gustavo Velázquez (6’2”), potentially leading to more headed shots.
• During the group stage, Paraguay was conceding 20.0 shots per match (tied for fourth-most). 
• Paired with Germany’s ability to control possession, Havertz could have a busy day ahead in the Round of 32.

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Make Your Germany vs. Paraguay Prediction on PrizePicks

Will Paraguay avoid a repeat of their 4-1 Matchday 1 loss against a dynamic United States attack? The team’s inability to control the ball may spell trouble against Germany in the Round of 32 — especially considering the Germans’ exceptional attack numbers during the group stage.

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