Brazil vs. Japan Prediction, Picks, Lineups for World Cup Round of 32

Brazil and Japan are squaring off in a Round of 32 matchup on Monday, June 29 at 1:00 p.m. ET on FOX and in Spanish on Telemundo and FOX One. The match is at NRG Stadium in Houston, TX. Ahead of kick-off, Brazil enters as the favorite with a 1.63x payout to win, via PrizePicks Team Picks. 

The winner of today’s match will face Tuesday’s Ivory Coast-Norway winner in the Round of 16 on July 5 at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.

Brazil is no stranger to advancing past the group stage, getting past the first round in every World Cup since 1970. Japan is in the knockout round for the fifth time in the last seven World Cups. 

Below, we’ll break down our Brazil vs. Japan prediction and picks for Monday’s World Cup 2026 match, including the spread, total goals, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Brazil vs. Japan prediction and World Cup picks on PrizePicks now!

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Brazil vs. Japan Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for World Cup Round of 32

How to watch Brazil vs. Japan: FOX (English) | Telemundo and FOX One (Spanish)

Kickoff Time: 1:00 p.m. ET

Venue: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX

Five-time World Cup champion Brazil won Group C, its 12th consecutive World Cup group stage finishing on top. It wasn’t as easy this time, however, as Canarinho tied Morocco 1-1 to open play before knocking off Haiti and Scotland, both by 3-0 scores. 

The offense got going in the final two games and finished group play with 7.3 expected goals (xG), second-best among all teams, and a 4.7 xG difference (third-best). Per FotMob, Brazil ranks fourth overall with a 7.23 rating, trailing only France, Switzerland, and Spain.

Japan got here as the runner-up in Group F, playing to a 2-2 draw with group winner Netherlands, a 1-1 draw with Sweden, and beating Tunisia 4-0. Japan’s FotMob rating is 6.98, ranked 21st. The Samurai Blue are also in the middle of the pack in expected goal difference (2.4) and 25th in shots on target per match (3.7).

The teams have posted similar possession numbers, with Brazil averaging 54% (21st) and Japan 51.5% (23rd).

Brazil vs. Japan: Favorite to Win, Spread, Total Goals – Round of 32

Brazil enters Monday's match as the favorite, returning a 1.63x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks. Meanwhile, Japan will look to stop Brazil's lethal offense and take advantage of its own counters.  

Here are the full payouts for the Brazil vs. Japan match on PrizePicks.

• Winner Payout: Brazil – 1.63x | Tie – 3.44x | Japan – 4.54x
• Spread: Brazil -1.5 (2.94x Payout) 
• Total Goals: 2.5 (Over – 2.04x)
• Both Teams to Score: Yes 2.94x | No 1.36x

Team Picks markets are settled after full-time (90 minutes + stoppage). Extra time and penalties are not included.

Payouts show potential returns on correct Team Picks predictions. A 2x payout returns $200 on a $100 entry. Lower multipliers reflect outcomes users are picking as more likely. Payouts are live as of writing and subject to change.

Make your Brazil vs. Japan prediction on spread or goals on PrizePicks Team Picks — available in 35 states!

Brazil vs. Japan Prediction on Winner for World Cup Round of 32.

The Brazil vs. Japan winner moves on to the Round of 16 to . Here are the key stats and trends for Brazil vs. Japan before making your World Cup 2026 predictions on PrizePicks.

• Brazil and Japan have met 14 previous times, with Brazil winning 11 and two draws. However, the two countries clashed in a friendly last October, with Japan winning 3-2. Brazil owns the one World Cup win, a 4-1 victory in 2006. 
• Brazil has made the quarterfinals in eight consecutive World Cups dating back to winning it all in 1994. The team also won it in 2002, finished runner-up in 1998, and was fourth in 2014. 
• After falling behind 1-0 to Morocco early in the first match, Brazil has racked up seven straight goals without a reply. 
• This is the first World Cup to feature a 32-team knockout stage. All four times that Japan advanced to the 16-team knockout stage, they lost. Two were in penalty kicks, and the other two were by one goal.   
• Japan’s expected goals this tournament are 3.9, 23rd among the 28 World Cup teams, per FotMob.

Lock in your Brazil vs. Japan prediction for the 2026 World Cup now!

Brazil vs. Japan Lineups for World Cup Round of 32 Game – Monday, June 29

Here are the projected Brazil vs. Japan lineups for Monday’s World Cup group stage match. Lineups are not official and are based on historical data.

Brazil Lineup vs. Japan Today

Projected Formation: 4-3-3

• Goalkeeper: Alisson
• Defense: Danilo, Marquinhos, Gabriel, Douglas Santos
• Midfield: Casemiro, Bruno Guimarães, Lucas Paquetá
• Forwards: Vinícius Júnior, Matheus Cunha, Rayan

Japan Lineup vs. Brazil Today

Projected Formation: 3-4-2-1

• Goalkeeper: Zion Suzuki
• Defense: Hiroki Ito, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Ko Itakura
• Defensive Midfield: Ritsu Dōan, Ao Tanaka, Kaishu Sano, Keito Nakamura
• Attacking Midfield: Junya Itō, Daichi Kamada
• Forwards: Ayase Ueda

Brazil vs. Japan Picks, Player Stats for World Cup Round of 32

Here are the top Brazil vs. Japan player picks to target on PrizePicks for Monday, June 29. Today’s World Cup 2026 picks are headlined by Keito Nakamura and Vinícius Júnior.

Japan LM Keito Nakamura vs. Brazil

Keito Nakamura Projections via PrizePicks: 0.5 Shots (Goblin), 28.5 Pass Attempts, 1.5 Attempted Dribbles

• Left midfielder Keito Nakamura has a goal and an assist on 5 shots (2 on goal) in 3 starts for Japan this tournament. 
• Nakamura was named to the Opta Analyst Group Stage Best XI for his performance in the three Group F matches.   
• Nakamura had 2 goals and 1 assist on 10 shots during Japan’s World Cup qualifying. 
• According to Footy Stats, Nakamura averaged 3.28 shots per 90 minutes for Reims in France’s Ligue 2 in 2025-26, which ranked in the 99th percentile.

Combine Japan + Keito Nakamura World Cup picks for bigger payouts on PrizePicks.

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Brazil LW Vinícius Júnior vs. Japan

Vinícius Júnior Projections via PrizePicks: 2.5 Shots (Goblin), 29.5 Passes Attempted, 19.5 Fantasy Score

• Brazil winger Vinícius Júnior’s 4 goals through 3 games are tied for second-most in the 2026 World Cup.
• Júnior also has one assist. His combined 5 goals + assists only trails Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappé among all players.  
• Júnior has recorded 3.5 expected goals and 4.0 expected goals on target in this tournament, both best in the field. 
• During CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying, the Real Madrid star had 2 goals and 1 assist on 22 shots for Team Brazil.  
• According to Footy Stats, Júnior averaged 3.19 shots per 90 minutes for Real Madrid in 2025-26, which ranked in the 97th percentile.

Combine Brazil + Vinicius Junior World Cup picks for bigger payouts on PrizePicks.

Make Your Brazil vs. Japan Prediction for World Cup on PrizePicks

Will Brazil continue its run to a record sixth World Cup title, or will upstart Japan shock one of the best teams in the world as they did in a friendly last October?  The Round of 32 matchup gets underway at 1 p.m. ET on FOX.

Make your Brazil vs. Japan picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right on every World Cup game.

Pick World Cup players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on World Cup match winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.

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