Fire vs. Mystics Prediction, Spread, WNBA Picks – Thursday, July 16

The Portland Fire vs. Washington Mystics game is set to tip off at 7 p.m. ET on Thursday, July 16. The Mystics enter as 6.5-point favorites on the spread and return a 1.36x payout if they win, via PrizePicks.

The Fire (10-14) have failed to find any consistency in their results in their inaugural season in the WNBA. The latest expansion team has traded wins and losses in each of its last five results, losing its most recent game to the Sun on Tuesday afternoon.

Meanwhile, the Mystics (12-10) have picked things up after a slow start, winning four of their last five heading into tonight’s matchup. Washington’s good run of form began with a 4OT win over the Fire back on June 28.

Below, we'll break down our Fire vs. Mystics prediction and picks for Thursday's WNBA game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Fire vs. Mystics prediction on PrizePicks for tonight’s game.

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Fire vs. Mystics Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Thursday, July 16

The Mystics host the Fire for the second of three intraconference matchups between the two sides. Washington edged out the Fire 124-123 in a four-overtime thriller when these teams last met on June 28. Sydney Johnson's squad sits two games over .500 and has four games remaining before the All-Star break, including tonight.

The Mystics are arguably the hottest team in the East, sitting third in the standings and being favored to pick up another win this evening.

They now face a Portland side that has been inconsistent in its debut season. The Fire currently sit sixth in the Western Conference and are 4-6 over their last 10 games. Alex Sarama's team has struggled on the boards all season, ranking last in rebounds per game, and now faces the league's top rebounding squad.

Rebounding wasn't a defining factor in the first meeting, but the Fire will be without starting center Megan Gustafson tonight. The absence of Gustafson's size and floor-spacing ability could prove significant. In the initial bout, the 6'4" center contributed 20 points on 4-of-7 shooting from deep in 46 minutes before fouling out.

Portland may look to replicate much of what worked in the first meeting. Washington has been one of the league's better defensive teams early in the season, but Portland was unfazed last time. Washington could now aim to put together another strong offensive showing despite its struggles throughout the season.

The Mystics rank in the bottom five in points per game, field goal percentage, and 3-point percentage while also leading the league in turnovers. Portland allows the third-most points and the third-highest field goal percentage to opponents and struggled to contain the Mystics in the first meeting as they finished nearly 6 points above their season average after four quarters.

If Washington brings the defensive intensity we've come to expect, Portland would have a difficult time keeping this one as close as the last meeting — especially without Gustafson.

Fire vs. Mystics Spread, Over/Under – Thursday, July 16

The Mystics enter Thursday’s game as 6.5-point home favorites against the Fire, returning a 1.36x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Fire vs. Mystics game on PrizePicks.

• Spread: Washington Mystics -6.5 (1.88x payout)
• Over/Under: 163.5 (1.85x payout on Over)
• Game Winner Payout: Fire 2.94x | Mystics 1.36x

Make your Fire vs. Mystics prediction on spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks — available in 36 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Fire vs. Mystics Injury Report for Thursday, July 16

Let’s dive into the full Fire vs. Mystics injury report for Thursday, via WNBA.com.

Portland Fire Injury Report 

• F Sania Feagin (Knee) - Out
• C Megan Gustafsson (Personal) - Out
• G Teja Oblak (Illness) - Questionable

Washington Mystics Injury Report

• None

Fire vs. Mystics Prediction on Over/Under – 7/16/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Fire vs. Mystics prediction on the over/under for Thursday, July 16.

Lock in your Fire vs. Mystics prediction on PrizePicks now.

• The Mystics haven’t been particularly strong at home, going just 5-5 in their first 10 games. They're averaging just 1.1 points above their season average at CareFirst Arena.
• Portland games have gone over the listed total in 14 of 24 games, including the first meeting between these two. They surpassed the 167.5-point mark in the first game in regulation without needing the extra periods.
• Both teams rank in the bottom five in pace of play, or number of possessions per 48 minutes. The Mystics ranked second-lowest at 78.39, while the Fire are just slightly better at 79.18.
• Each team shot above its typical 3-point average in the first meeting, with Portland knocking down 14 treys on 35.9% efficiency. The Mystics allow just a 31.9% 3-point mark to their opponents, the third-lowest in the league.
• The Mystics are 11-11 against the over/under, including 6-4 at home. While they're scoring 1.1 PPG more at home, opponents are doing the same against the league’s third-best defense.

Fire vs. Mystics Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 7/16/26

Here are the top Fire vs. Mystics picks to target on Thursday, July 16. Today’s WNBA picks for PrizePicks include Carla Leite and Sonia Citron.

Fire G Carla Leite vs. Mystics Projection: 23.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts

• Leite has been Portland’s MVP nearly halfway through the season. The former Valkyries guard is averaging over 23 PRA and over 29 in her last five games.
• The second-year woman has the seventh-highest usage rate in the WNBA at 28.6%. The 22-year-old boasts a 1.62 assist-to-turnover ratio, just under Caitlin Clark.
• With Gustafson out, Leite may be called upon even more as the team’s leading scorer. Leite last had 32 against the Mystics, attacking one of the best defenses with high screen-and-roll actions.
• Leite ranks second on the team in average field goal attempts with 10, just behind Bridget Carleton. With Gustafson’s nearly 9 FGA per game out of the lineup, look for Leite to potentially have even more opportunities to score tonight.

Add Carla Leite to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Mystics G Sonia Citron vs. Fire Projection: 16.5 Points

• Citron ranks within the top 15 of all players in the W, averaging a career-high 17.8 PPG in her sophomore season. 
• The former Notre Dame guard dropped a career-high 32 points against the Fire on June 28, although 21 of the 32 came in the overtime periods.
• Citron has scored over 16 in the Mystics' last seven games as home favorites. The 23-year-old is coming off a season-low 2 points in 31 minutes against the Tempo on Tuesday.
• Citron has struggled from deep in her second season, shooting just 27.7%. The 6’1” guard has been much better around the rim or in the mid-range, shooting 59.4% inside the arc — 13th-highest in the league.

Add Sonia Citron to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Make Fire vs. Mystics Picks on PrizePicks

The shorthanded Fire will hope to reenter the win column as large underdogs against the Mystics later tonight. Meanwhile, Washington aim to make one last push towards the top spot in the East before the All-Star Break later this month.

Don’t wait until tip-off — make your Fire vs. Mystics picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 36 states.

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