Fire vs. Mercury Prediction, Spread, WNBA Picks – Sunday, August 16

The Phoenix Mercury are slated to host the Portland Fire on Sunday, August 16, at 7:00 p.m. ET in a Western Conference matchup. Phoenix enters the showdown as 4.5-point favorites on the spread, via PrizePicks.

The Fire have won three of their last four games and are fresh off a narrow victory against the Seattle Storm on Friday. Meanwhile, the Mercury have dropped three of their last four games but did land a win against the Los Angeles Sparks in their most recent game on Tuesday.

Below, we'll break down our Fire vs. Mercury prediction and picks for Sunday’s WNBA game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Fire vs. Mercury prediction and picks on PrizePicks now!

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Fire vs. Mercury Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Sunday, August 16

The Mercury have had an up-and-down campaign despite reaching the WNBA Finals in 2025. Phoenix has compiled a 13-22 record and currently sits in sixth place in the Western Conference.

Earlier this month, the Mercury made a huge splash when the team landed star G Kelsey Plum in a trade with the Los Angeles Sparks. Plum has averaged 17.3 points per game and is shooting 40.0% from beyond the arc in four games since joining the Mercury.

The Fire have struggled at times throughout their inaugural season. Ironically, Portland has put together a 14-20 record and sits 1.5 games ahead of Phoenix for fifth place in the Western Conference.

Despite recently losing five consecutive games, the Fire have righted the ship lately, winning three of their last four contests. G Carla Leite continues to pace the team as she leads the Fire in points (15.5) and assists (6.2) this season. 

Fire vs. Mercury Spread, Over/Under – Sunday, August 16

The Mercury enter Sunday’s game as 4.5-point home favorites against the Fire, returning a 1.44x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Fire vs. Mercury game on PrizePicks.

Make your Fire vs. Mercury prediction on the spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks—available in 36 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Fire vs. Mercury Injury Report for Sunday, August 16

Let’s dive into the full Fire vs. Mercury injury report for Sunday, August 16, via WNBA.com.

Portland Fire Injury Report

• F Sania Feagin (knee) – OUT

Phoenix Mercury Injury Report

• G Kelsey Plum (leg) – OUT

Fire vs. Mercury Prediction on Winner – 8/16/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Fire vs. Mercury prediction on the winner for Sunday, August 16.

• The Fire are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games.
• Portland is one of the WNBA’s top 3-point shooting teams, knocking down 35.2% of their attempts (sixth in the league). On the other hand, Phoenix struggles from the perimeter with just a 32.2% clip from deep (12th).
• Meanwhile, the Mercury also do not defend the 3-ball particularly well. Phoenix allows its opponents to shoot 36.5% from beyond the arc, which ranks 14th in the league.
• According to databallr, the Mercury own the fourth-lowest offensive rating (106.1) this season.
• The Fire have forced the sixth-most turnovers per game (13.5) in 2026.
• Portland is 3-1 against the spread in its last four road games.

Lock in your Fire vs. Mercury prediction on PrizePicks before tip-off.

Fire vs. Mercury Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks – 8/16/26

Here are the top Fire vs. Mercury picks to target on PrizePicks for Sunday, August 16. Today’s WNBA picks for PrizePicks include Carla Leite, Kahleah Copper, and more.

Fire G Carla Leite vs. Mercury: 26.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts

• Leite has recorded at least 27 combined points, rebounds, and assists in three of her last five games.
• The Fire guard spends a whopping 61.1% of her time on-ball, ranking in the 99th percentile.
• Leite has connected on 73.0% of her unassisted shot attempts throughout the 2026 season (99th percentile), showcasing her ability to find her own shot.
• The 2024 first-round pick is shooting 60.0% (6 of 10) on 3-point attempts over her last four games.

Add Carla Leite to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Mercury G Kahleah Copper vs. Fire: 21.5 Points

• Before Kelsey Plum was acquired, Copper had scored at least 22 points in three of her previous six contests. That's relevant with Plum out due to injury tonight.
• Copper attempts 6.5 free throws per game this season, which ranks in the 98th percentile. She is a career 79.2% shooter from the charity stripe.
• The Mercury star averages 7.0 unassisted points per 100 offensive possessions, ranking in the 77th percentile.
• Copper carries a 29.2% usage rate in 2026, which sits in the 98th percentile.

Add Kahleah Copper to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Mercury F Alyssa Thomas vs. Fire: 8.5 Rebounds

• Thomas has secured at least 9 rebounds in four of her last eight games.
• Rankings in the 83rd percentile, the former Maryland star pulls down 17.3% of her available defensive rebounds.
• Portland allows 9.7 offensive rebounds per game—the third-most among WNBA teams.
• Thomas has secured at least 2 offensive rebounds in three of her last five contests.

Add Alyssa Thomas to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Make Fire vs. Mercury Picks on PrizePicks

The Portland Fire and Phoenix Mercury are two evenly matched teams, as evidenced by their stance in the WNBA standings. As a result, the Fire could keep Sunday's contest within reach.

Don’t wait until tip-off—make your Fire vs. Mercury picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 36 states.

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