Fever vs. Mercury Prediction, Spread, WNBA Picks – Thursday, July 9

The Indiana Fever vs. Phoenix Mercury game is set to tip off at 10 p.m. ET on Thursday, July 9, with the Mercury entering as 1.5-point favorites on the spread with a 1.85x payout to win for tonight's contest on Prime Video, via PrizePicks. 

After dropping last night’s game 106-92 to the Sparks, the Fever (12-9) enter the second night of a back-to-back. Indiana’s superstar guard Caitlin Clark made her much-anticipated return last night but is expected to miss tonight’s game for injury management. 

The Mercury’s (8-14) three-game win streak came to an end on Tuesday following a 77-66 loss to the Sky. Phoenix will look to get back on track against the team that started its win streak back on June 24.

Below, we'll break down our Fever vs. Mercury prediction and picks for Thursday's WNBA game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Fever vs. Mercury prediction on PrizePicks for tonight’s game.

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Fever vs. Mercury Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Thursday, July 9

These teams met for a two-game series in Indiana back in June, splitting the matchups in what has become one of the WNBA's most compelling recent rivalries. Clark, who returned from a back injury last night, will sit out tonight as the Fever manage her workload. However, Indiana will get center Aliyah Boston back after she missed last night's game with a leg injury.

The Mercury pulled out a win in a tight game the last time these teams met 15 days ago. Controversy struck after that win, when Phoenix committed several hard fouls on Clark, and the Indiana superstar missed the two games that followed.

Indiana coaches and players voiced their frustrations with officiating after the most recent head-to-head battle between these two, and you can expect another tense matchup later tonight even without Clark in the lineup.

The win nearly two weeks ago sparked an offensive resurgence from Phoenix, which has struggled mightily in that department all season. The Mercury scored above their average in all three games of their win streak before falling back into old habits on Tuesday against the Sky. Phoenix scored a season-low 66 points, shooting just 37% from the field and 29.2% on 3-pointers in its most recent loss.

The Mercury now face an Indiana squad that averages the most PPG in the WNBA (93.4) and has the third-highest field-goal and 3-point percentages in the league. Both teams shot nearly 60% from the field when they last met, and we could be in for another offensive barrage, even without the WNBA’s sixth-leading scorer, Clark, in action.

Fever vs. Mercury Spread, Over/Under – Thursday, July 9

The Mercury enter Thursday’s game as 1.5-point home favorites against the Fever, returning a 1.85x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Fever vs. Mercury game on PrizePicks.

• Spread: Mercury -1.5 (1.92x payout)
• Over/Under: 171.5 (1.88x payout on Over)
• Game Winner Payout: Fever - 1.88x | Mercury - 1.85x

Make your Fever vs. Mercury prediction on spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks — available in 35 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Fever vs. Mercury Injury Report for Thursday, July 9

Let’s dive into the full Fever vs. Mercury injury report for Thursday, via WNBA.com.

Fever Injury Report 

• G Caitlin Clark (back) - OUT
• C Aliyah Boston (leg) - Probable
• G Sophie Cunningham (back) - Questionable

Mercury Injury Report

• C Natasha Mack (foot) - OUT
• F Alyssa Thomas (foot) - Probable
• G Sami Whitcomb (knee) - Probable

Fever vs. Mercury Prediction on Over/Under – 7/9/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Fever vs. Mercury prediction on over/under for Thursday, July 9.

• The Mercury and Fever are averaging a 191.5 point total in their two games played this season. Their most recent game finished 111-109, while their first matchup ended 86-77.
• Indiana has the league's most prolific offense, averaging 93.4 PPG. However, this number falls to just 85.4 PPG on the road. The Mercury has struggled at home, going 5-7 and averaging 85.7 PPG at Mortgage Matchup Center.
• The Fever take the fifth-most 3-pointers per game at 27.2. They rank first in points scored from the outside in their last three games, averaging 30 points from deep. The Mercury has struggled from beyond the arc, shooting just under 33% on 24.5 attempts per game.
• Phoenix is allowing the second-highest 3-point percentage to opponents in the league (36.9%). The Mercury ranks in the bottom five in FG%, 3FG%, and rebounds per game.
• The Fever allow the fourth-most PPG to their opponents (89.7). They have the second-highest turnover rate per game (14.9) and now play the third-most efficient fast-break team in the league. Phoenix averages 1.51 points per fast break.

Lock in your Fever vs. Mercury prediction on PrizePicks before tip-off.

Fever vs. Mercury Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks – 7/9/26

Here are the top Fever vs. Mercury picks to target on PrizePicks for Thursday, July 9. Today’s WNBA picks for PrizePicks include Kelsey Mitchell and Kahleah Copper.

Fever G Kelsey Mitchell vs. Mercury: 23.5 Points

• Mitchell has become the Fever’s primary ball handler with Clark in and out of the lineup. The Indiana guard is averaging 28.4 PPG over her last five games, including 30 points in her last two games against Phoenix.
• Mitchell has raised her season scoring average to 22.2 PPG, the third-highest in the W. The 30-year-old guard has scored the second-most points in the league this season (467).
• In 34 career games without Clark, Mitchell is averaging 21.0 PPG. That number has climbed to 24.7 in three games this season.
• The veteran guard has her highest offensive rating since her rookie year, at 119.8, after 21 games. Her 26.4% usage rate is the second-highest of her career and could go up with Clark out of the lineup.

Add Kelsey Mitchell to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Mercury G Kahleah Copper vs. Fever: 20.5 Points

• Kahleah Copper has been a bright spot for the Mercury amid a disappointing season. Copper is averaging 20.8 PPG, the fourth-most in the WNBA.
• Despite a poor shooting season from behind the arc (27.1 3FG%), Copper has been extremely efficient from two, shooting 50.0%.
• Copper has scored 20 or more in five straight games, averaging 26 during this most recent hot stretch. This includes both games against the Fever this season.
• The 31-year-old is averaging 16.0 FGA per game and getting to the free-throw line at the third-highest rate among players, with 7.2 FTA per game.

Add Kahleah Copper to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Make Fever vs. Mercury Picks on PrizePicks

After splitting their first two meetings, the Fever and Mercury face off for the final time in the 2026 regular season. Will Indiana pull off the road upset in a hostile environment without their superstar?

Don’t wait until tip-off— make your Fever vs. Mercury picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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