Fever vs. Aces Prediction, Spread, WNBA Playoffs Picks for Thursday, October 1

The WNBA Playoffs continue on Thursday, October 1 as the Indiana Fever visit the Las Vegas Aces in Game 3 of their best-of-three first-round series at 9 p.m. ET on USA Network.

The defending champion Aces rolled past the Fever in Game 1, but Indiana kept its season alive in Tuesday’s 99-89 victory. Las Vegas rolls into this one as 3.5-point favorites on PrizePicks.

Since head coach Becky Hammon took over the Aces in 2021, Las Vegas has yet to be eliminated in the first round of the WNBA Playoffs. Could that change tonight?

Below, we'll break down our Fever vs. Aces prediction and picks for Thursday's WNBA matchup, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Fever vs. Aces prediction on PrizePicks now.

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Fever vs. Aces Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for WNBA Playoffs – Thursday, October 1

In Game 1, Las Vegas built a 15-point halftime lead and never looked back in a 102-85 home triumph. The Fever actually shot well from 3-point range (12-of-31) and the free throw line (13-of-14) but converted only 50% of their 2-point attempts.

That number improved at home in Game 2 for Indiana, when the Fever hit 58% of its 2-point tries in an 11-point win. The big story surrounding that loss for the Aces was star C A’ja Wilson getting into an altercation with a fan late in the game following a whistle. 

Las Vegas outscored Indiana 30-13 at the free throw line, but the Fever received 75 of their 99 points from the trio of G Caitlin Clark, G Kelsey Mitchell, and C Aliyah Boston. That was an incredible jump from the 45 points those three had in Game 1.

In last season’s second-round elimination game between the Aces and Fever, Las Vegas outlasted Indiana 107-98 in overtime to pick up the miracle cover as 8.5-point favorites.

The Fever aim to advance to the second round of two consecutive postseasons for the first time since 2014 and 2015.

Fever vs. Aces Spread, Over/Under for WNBA Playoffs Today – Thursday, October 1

The Aces enter Thursday’s game as 3.5-point home favorites against the Fever. If Indiana wins outright, it returns a 2.56x payout via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Fever vs. Aces game on PrizePicks.

Make your Fever vs. Aces prediction on spread or over/under on PrizePicks!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Fever vs. Aces Injury Report for Thursday, October 1

Let’s dive into the full Fever vs. Aces injury report for Thursday, October 1, via WNBA.com.

Indiana Fever Injury Report

• C Aliyah Boston (leg) - Probable
• G Caitlin Clark (back) - Probable
• G Tyasha Harris (leg) - OUT

Las Vegas Aces Injury Report

• G Dana Evans (knee) - OUT

Fever vs. Aces Prediction on Winner for WNBA Playoffs – 10/1/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Fever vs. Aces prediction on the winner for Thursday, October 1.

• The Aces are 10-3 straight-up and 9-4 against the spread (ATS) coming off a loss this season.
• The Fever have lost three of their last four road games to playoff teams by 6+ points.
• Indiana led the league in offensive rating at 115.0 in the regular season; that number has slightly dipped to 113.6 in this series.
• The Aces have compiled an effective field goal percentage (eFG%) of 58.5% in this series compared to 55.0% in the regular season.
• Limiting turnovers is a key to success, as the Fever owned a turnover rate below 15.0% in all three wins against the Aces. In the two losses, that share was 21.0%.

Lock in your Fever vs. Aces prediction on PrizePicks before tonight’s WNBA Playoffs game.

Fever vs. Aces Picks, Player Stats for WNBA Playoffs on PrizePicks: 10/1/26

Here are the top Fever vs. Aces picks to target on Thursday, October 1. Today’s WNBA picks for PrizePicks include Caitlin Clark and A’ja Wilson.

Fever G Caitlin Clark vs. Aces: 22.5 Points

• Following a 15-point effort in Game 1, Clark exploded for 27 points in Game 2, including hitting 5 3-pointers.
• The former Iowa star is averaging 19.4 PPG in her last 20 road outings. In her three career playoff games away from home, she's put up 17.0 PPG.
• According to Props Madness, Clark has put up fewer than 22 points in nine of the last 15 games against teams ranked fourth or higher in defensive rating (Las Vegas sits fifth, however).

Add Caitlin Clark + Fever to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Aces C A’ja Wilson vs. Fever: 38.5 Pts + Rebs

• Wilson has finished below this projection in seven of the last nine games, including a combined scoring and rebounding ledger of 31 in the Game 2 loss.
• The former South Carolina standout averaged 35.1 PR in 11 home playoff games from 2024 through 2025 before a 54-spot in Game 1.
• Wilson has finished with 10 or fewer boards in nine of the last 10 games. The lone outlier came in Game 1 against Indiana (16).
• In 20 games with one day of rest, Wilson is averaging 26.7 PPG, along with 8.7 rebounds per contest.

Add A’ja Wilson + Aces to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Make Fever vs. Aces Picks on PrizePicks

The Fever look to end Las Vegas’ reign atop the WNBA with a road victory tonight. Can Indiana advance, or will the Aces continue their championship defense?

Don’t wait until tip-off — make your Fever vs. Aces picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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