Falcons vs. Saints Prediction, Spread, NFL Picks for Monday Night Football

Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season concludes with a fun NFC South showdown as the Atlanta Falcons travel to Caesars Superdome to take on the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football at 8:15 p.m. on ESPN and ABC. The Saints enter as 1.5-point favorites on PrizePicks.

Both teams enter the matchup at 1-2 but are coming off very different results. Atlanta finally got its offense rolling in Week 3, crushing the Green Bay Packers 35-14 in QB Michael Penix Jr.'s first start of the season. New Orleans, meanwhile, blew an 11-point second-half lead against the Las Vegas Raiders and committed 4 turnovers in the loss.

Can the Falcons carry their Week 3 momentum into another divisional road game, or will the Saints maximize of home-field advantage and exploit a banged-up Atlanta pass defense?

Below, we'll break down our Falcons vs. Saints prediction and picks for Monday Night Football in Week 4, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Falcons vs. Saints picks on PrizePicks now!

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Falcons vs. Saints Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Monday Night Football – October 5

The Falcons' Week 3 showing injected new life into this team and showed just how much better this offense can be with Penix back under center.

Penix completed 18 of 25 passes for 256 yards and a TD against Green Bay. Atlanta also ran for 223 yards in the victory, led by RB Bijan Robinson's ridiculous 194-yard, 2-TD performance.

Robinson has now rushed for 349 yards on 66 carries through three games, averaging 5.3 yards per try. That gives him 116.3 rushing YPG, while WR Drake London has 274 receiving yards and is averaging an absurd 18.3 yards per catch.

New Orleans has struggled defensively, allowing 27.7 PPG and 340.3 YPG. The Saints sit 27th in rushing defense, giving up 128.7 rushing YPG, and their defense ranks 29th in EPA per play allowed (0.06).

The offense, however, has been much more impressive. New Orleans is averaging 27.0 PPG and 382.7 YPG, including 281.3 passing yards — third-most in the NFL. QB Tyler Shough has thrown for 917 yards and 8 TDs through three games.

WR Chris Olave has been the centerpiece of that passing attack, catching 27 passes for 375 yards. He has exceeded 80 receiving yards in all three games, and his 36 targets rank 10th in the NFL, but everyone above him has played four games.

New Orleans' biggest concern is its injury situation. LB Kaden Elliss, LB Carl Granderson, and LB Anfernee Jennings have all been ruled out, while LB Pete Werner is questionable.

Falcons vs. Saints Spread, Over/Under for MNF – Monday, October 5

New Orleans enters Monday night's matchup as a 1.5-point home favorite against the Falcons, returning a 1.75x payout if they win outright.

Here are the full payouts for Falcons vs. Saints on PrizePicks.

Make your Falcons vs. Saints prediction on the spread or over/under on PrizePicks.

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Falcons vs. Saints Prediction on Over/Under Monday Night Football – 10/5/26

Here are the key stats and predictions behind our Falcons vs. Saints prediction on the over/under for Monday Night Football.

Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from SumerSports, PFF, and Pro Football Reference.

• Atlanta enters Monday night with one of the NFL's most extreme run/pass splits on defense. The Falcons rank first in the NFL in rushing defense but rank 29th in passing yards allowed.
• New Orleans will also be missing RB Travis Etienne Jr. for tonight’s game, which could lead to a more pass-heavy script, especially with RB Alvin Kamara and his receiving chops.
• Atlanta's offense finally exploded once Penix returned in Week 3, scoring 35 points against Green Bay after averaging only 17.0 PPG through the first two weeks.
• Penix completed 72% of his passes against the Packers but, more importantly, averaged 10.2 yards per attempt — immediately giving Atlanta's offense a much higher explosive-play ceiling.
• The Falcons also rank second in the NFL in rushing offense, averaging 173.0 rushing YPG.
• The Saints’ pass defense hasn’t been any better than their run defense, ranking 26th in EPA/dropback surrendered (0.10). New Orleans also ranks second-to-last in opponent success rate at 50.0%.

Lock in your Falcons vs. Saints prediction on PrizePicks before Monday night's NFL game.

Falcons vs. Saints Picks, Player Stats for Monday Night Football on PrizePicks: 10/5/26

Here are the top Falcons vs. Saints picks to target on PrizePicks for Monday night, including Bijan Robinson and Chris Olave.

Falcons RB Bijan Robinson vs. Saints: 87.5 Rush Yards

• Without RB Tyler Allgeier on the roster, Robinson has become a volume machine. He's received 21 or more carries in two of his three games, including 29 attempts for 194 yards against Green Bay.
• The Saints have surrendered 4.7 yards per carry and rank 26th in the NFL in EPA per rush (0.0).
• New Orleans will also have to stop Robinson without three of its primary LBs: Elliss, Granderson, and Jennings.
• The Saints allowed RB Jahmyr Gibbs, a player with a similar profile, to rush for 156 yards in Week 1.

Add Bijan Robinson + Falcons to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Saints WR Chris Olave vs. Falcons: 85.5 Rec Yards

• Olave has cleared this projection in every game this season with receiving-yard totals of 182, 86, and 107.
• The Saints are a clear pass-first team, throwing the ball on 62.3% of their plays.
• Atlanta's defense has operated as a massive pass funnel, allowing just 47.7 rushing YPG while giving up 263.0 passing YPG.
• With the Falcons missing top CB A.J. Terrell Jr., there could be an easier matchup in store for Olave tonight.

Add Chris Olave + Saints to cover the spread to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Make Falcons vs. Saints Picks on PrizePicks

The Falcons and Saints enter Monday Night Football with identical records. With both offenses holding potentially advantageous matchups against the opposition’s defense, we could be in for fireworks in the Superdome tonight.

Can Atlanta build on its offensive momentum, or will Shough and the Saints take advantage of a weak passing defense and secure a huge divisional victory in front of the home crowd?

Don't wait until kickoff — make your Falcons vs. Saints picks on PrizePicks Team Picks. Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you're right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 36 states.

Keep it here with the Playbook for continued NFL picks, predictions, futures, and more as we wrap up Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season.