On Monday Night Football, the Atlanta Falcons (1-2) hit the road to face the New Orleans Saints (1-2) at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN. The Saints enter as 1.5-point home favorites on the spread, per PrizePicks.
Following a 0-2 stretch behind poor backup quarterback play, starting QB Michael Penix Jr. returned for the Falcons in Week 3 and helped lead them to a 35-14 victory over the Green Bay Packers. Meanwhile, New Orleans carried an 11-point lead in the second half last week against the Las Vegas Raiders but ultimately fell 35-27.
This matchup represents the 20th anniversary of the Saints’ return to the Superdome following Hurricane Katrina.
Below, we’ll break down our Falcons vs. Saints prediction and pick against the spread from PrizePicks for Monday Night Football in NFL Week 4.
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Falcons vs. Saints Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Monday Night Football – 10/5/26
Over the first two weeks, the Falcons’ offense ranked last in EPA/play (-0.426) and second-to-last in success rate (35.7%) sans Penix, averaging just 8.0 PPG.
With Penix back in action against Green Bay, Atlanta scored 35 points while posting the week’s second-best EPA/play (0.321) and best success rate (63.2%), per RBSDM. RB Bijan Robinson rushed for 197 yards and 2 TDs on 29 carries while WR Drake London caught 9 of 10 targets for 194 receiving yards.
Obviously, we aren’t expecting the Falcons to suddenly be one of the top offenses in football the rest of the way, but this could be an above-average unit with functional QB play.
Defensively, the Falcons have been in the middle of the pack inPPG (22.7). However, they’ve been a brick wall against the run, giving up the fewest rushing yards per game (47.7) and per attempt (2.8). That’s helped the defense rank eighth in EPA/play allowed (-0.062) through three weeks.
The Saints enter Week 3 ranked 11th in PPG (27.0) and eighth in YPG (382.7). Their offense plays at the league’s fastest pace, per Sharp Football Analysis, leading to them averaging the most plays per game (74.0). They also rank eighth in success rate (47.6%).
However, New Orleans will be without RB Travis Etienne Jr., who was placed on injured reserve this week. RBs Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller are the top remaining backs.
The Saints have struggled on defense. Coming into the week, they’re tied for allowing the sixth-most PPG (27.7).
Falcons vs. Saints Spread, Over/Under – Monday, October 5
The Saints enter Monday’s game as 1.5-point home favorites against the Falcons, returning a 1.75x payout on PrizePicks if they win outright.
Here are the full payouts for the Falcons vs. Saints game on Monday Night Football, via PrizePicks.
Make your Falcons vs. Saints prediction on the spread on PrizePicks.
PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Falcons vs. Saints Prediction on Spread for Monday Night Football – 10/5/26
Here are the key stats and trends behind our Falcons vs. Saints prediction on the spread for Monday Night Football on October 5.
- The Falcons have only 5 sacks, but they lead the league in pressure rate (44.2%). Their pass rush also has the highest PFF grade.
- Atlanta’s defense is fifth in rush EPA/play allowed (-0.312) and third in rush success rate (30.2%).
- The Falcons’ offensive line has allowed the lowest pressure rate (24.4%) entering Monday's play.
- The strong play of both lines is further supported by the team ranking third in pass rush win rate (61%), sixth in run stop win rate (32%), 11th in pass block win rate (53%), and ninth in run block win rate (74%), according to ESPN.
- Despite scoring at a pretty high clip so far, the Saints rank just 19th in offensive DVOA, per FTN.
- Against the run, New Orleans is 24th in rush EPA/play allowed (-0.038) and 31st in rush success rate (49.4%).
- Even with the Falcons’ early struggles on offense, they’re fifth in rush EPA/play (0.025) and fourth in rush success rate (49.0%) behind the strong play of Robinson.
- New Orleans could have a tough time running the ball against Atlanta's stout rush defense. Kamara is averaging just 2.8 yards per attempt and Kendre Miller is averaging 3.4. The injured Etienne was averaging 4.2.
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