Week 3’s edition of Thursday Night Football will feature the Atlanta Falcons against the Green Bay Packers at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video. The Packers come in as 4.5-point home favorites on PrizePicks.
The Falcons have opened the season 0-2 due in large part to injuries at quarterback, but QB Michael Penix Jr. is finally ready to return from last season’s ACL injury and will make his season debut tonight. Backup QB Tua Tagovailoa will also be active for the first time this year.
The Packers have split their first two games and dodged their own 0-2 hole with a come-from-behind 20-17 win in overtime against the New York Jets. The victory snapped a six-game losing streak dating back to last season.
Both teams are off to shaky starts and could definitely use a convincing win to change the trajectory of their respective campaigns.
Below, we’ll break down our Falcons vs. Packers prediction and picks for Week 3’s Thursday Night Football game tonight, including the spread, over/under, and top player picks for PrizePicks.
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Falcons vs. Packers Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Thursday Night Football Week 3
Whatever the Falcons get out of Penix on Thursday could certainly be better than what we saw from QBs Cooper Rush and Jack Strand these past two weeks.
Per RBSDM, Atlanta’s offense enters Week 3 averaging a disastrous -0.426 EPA/play, by far the league’s worst mark.
These poor results have fallen almost entirely on poor QB play, as the team has averaged -0.669 EPA/dropback and a 31.9% dropback success rate. Unsurprisingly, Atlanta once again ranks last in both categories.
The Falcons were below average in EPA/play last season (-0.008) with Penix and QB Kirk Cousins splitting the starts, but that would still be a major improvement.
Penix returns to an attack that still possesses several notable weapons between RB Bijan Robinson, WR Drake London, and TE Kyle Pitts. The offensive line has performed well in pass protection so far, too, ranking third in pass block win rate (59%), per ESPN.
Atlanta’s defense has been respectable through two weeks, too, ranking 15th in defensive DVOA, per FTN.
Meanwhile, the Packers have had their own woes offensively, as only the Los Angeles Chargers, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Falcons sit below them in EPA/play (-0.165).
There’s a fair bit of blame to go around. QB Jordan Love ranks 31st in both success rate (37.6%) and CPOE (-11.3). The backfield is second to last in EPA/rush (-0.474). The O-line is dead last in pass block win rate (18%) and just lost RT Zach Bako-Bewele to a season-ending injury.
Defensively, the Packers have allowed the fifth-fewest yards per game (262.0). However, they rank 16th in DVOA and 15th in EPA/play (-0.024), and they’re still without star EDGE Micah Parsons, who opened the year on the active/PUP list.
Perhaps one of the most damning issues for Green Bay in the early going is penalties. The Packers have averaged 13.0 penalties per game and 115.5 penalty yards per game, which are both the worst marks in the league.
Overall, it’s easy to see why both teams have gotten off to slow starts.
Falcons vs. Packers Spread, Over/Under – Thursday, September 24
The Packers enter Thursday’s game as 4.5-point home favorites against the Falcons, returning a 1.36x payout on PrizePicks if they win outright.
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Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Falcons vs. Packers Prediction on Over/Under for Thursday Night Football – 9/24/26
Here are the key stats and trends behind our Falcons vs. Packers prediction on the over/under for Thursday, September 24.
- The Falcons have averaged only 8.0 PPG and have scored just a single TD over the first two weeks.
- Atlanta’s ugly -0.426 EPA/play on offense not only ranks last, but even the struggling Chargers (-0.241) and Steelers (-0.286) haven’t come close to reaching such horrid depths.
- While the Falcons should be able to move the ball more consistently with Penix under center, there’s no guarantee he’s successful in his first game coming off a torn ACL, particularly under a new coaching staff.
- The Falcons’ offense ranks 31st in success rate (35.7%). The only team that’s been worse is the Packers (35.4%).
- With starting RB Josh Jacobs beginning the year on the Commissioner’s Exempt List, Green Bay is averaging a league-worst 64.5 rushing YPG. Atlanta has allowed the fewest rushing YPG (63.0) and ranks sixth in run stop win rate (32%).
- Despite being without Parsons, the Packers’ defense is tied for the NFL’s second-most sacks (7) and is fifth in QB pressures per dropback (31.6%), according to Pro Football Reference.
Make your Falcons vs. Packers picks now for Thursday’s NFL game.
Falcons vs. Packers Picks, Player Stats for TNF on PrizePicks: 9/24/26
Here are the top Falcons vs. Packers picks to target on Thursday, September 24. Today’s NFL picks for PrizePicks include Matthew Golden, Tucker Kraft, and Kyle Pitts.
Packers WR Matthew Golden vs. Falcons: 55.5 Rec Yards
- Golden has tallied 95 and 58 receiving yards over the first two weeks.
- Per SumerSports, the wideout has a fantastic 26.1% target share. Only WR Christian Watson has a better mark (27.5%) on the team.
- With WR Jayden Reed suffering a neck injury early in Week 2, both Golden and Watson may continue to see plenty of volume in the passing game. Reed was third on the team with 7 targets in Week 1 behind Golden (12) and Watson (8).
- Golden has opened the year averaging 2.22 yards per route run, which ranks top-20 among WRs with at least 10 targets.
- The Falcons just placed CB A.J. Terrell Jr. on injured reserve, which could be a sizable blow to a defense that’s already dealt with multiple injuries.
Add Matthew Golden + Packers to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.
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Packers TE Tucker Kraft vs. Falcons: 4 Recs
- Coming off a torn ACL, Kraft was on a snap count in Week 1, but he was a full-time player last week against the Jets, playing 98.3% of the offensive snaps. He also saw a dramatic rise in route participation.
- The TE is third on the team in target share (13.0%), and that figures to only go up with Reed sidelined for the foreseeable future. In his seven fully healthy games last season, Kraft averaged 5.9 targets.
- Watson, Golden, Kraft, and Reed are the only players on Green Bay who have more than 2 receptions on the year.
- The Falcons have already conceded 3 TDs to TEs this year. The first was to Pat Freiermuth, and then Darren Waller grabbed a pair in Week 2. Neither player is an elite option at the position. Kraft scored 6 TDs in his seven healthy games in 2025.
Add Tucker Kraft + Packers to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.
Falcons TE Kyle Pitts vs. Packers: 37.5 Rec Yards
- Outside of Robinson, no one else in this Falcons offense has found much success due to poor QB play. With Penix back, it’s fair to assume London and Pitts may be more involved moving forward.
- Last season, Pitts saw a 22.7% target share while averaging 6.9 targets, 5.2 receptions, and 54.6 receiving YPG.
- The standout TE reached 38+ receiving yards in 12 of 17 games in 2025.
- In Penix’s eight full games last year, Pitts tallied 38+ receiving yards in six of them.
Add Kyle Pitts + Falcons to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.
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The Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers haven’t performed well through the first two weeks. Which one will raise their level to get the win on Thursday Night Football?
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