In NFL Week 8, the Atlanta Falcons (3-4) hit the road to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-5) at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, November 1. The Bucs come in as 2.5-point home favorites, per PrizePicks.
While the Falcons and Buccaneers are below .500, both teams are coming off Week 7 wins. Atlanta got a statement victory over a previously undefeated San Francisco 49ers team by a final of 29-20, while Tampa Bay made some waves of their own by obliterating the Carolina Panthers 43-13.
Which NFC South team can keep the momentum going on Sunday?
Below, we’ll break down our Falcons vs. Buccaneers prediction and picks for NFL Week 8, including the spread, over/under, and top player picks for PrizePicks.
Make your Falcons vs. Buccaneers prediction and picks on PrizePicks now!
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Falcons vs. Buccaneers Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Week 8 – Sunday, November 1
The Buccaneers enter Sunday’s game as 2.5-point home favorites against the Falcons, returning a 1.69x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks — or an estimated $169 on a $100 entry.
Here are the full payouts for the Falcons vs. Buccaneers game on PrizePicks.
PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Make your Falcons vs. Buccaneers prediction on the spread, over/under, and more on PrizePicks!
With the Panthers losing on Thursday Night Football, the Falcons are now tied with them for the NFC South division lead, so a win over the Bucs would give them sole possession of the top spot.
Atlanta’s win broke a two-game losing skid and could give it renewed confidence. In the victory, QB Michael Penix Jr. completed 25 of 34 passes for 213 yards and 3 TDs, RB Bijan Robinson tallied 122 scrimmage yards off 25 touches, and WR Drake London caught 7 of 10 targets for 66 yards and a TD.
Overall, the Falcons’ offense has cracked the top 10 in PPG (24.4), though it's still just 17th in YPG (337.3).
The defense also played a role in last week’s upset, forcing the Niners into 4 turnovers. San Francisco previously had only 6 giveaways through six games. However, Atlanta still gave up 400 yards of total offense.
For the year, the defense has been a slightly below-average group, giving up 24.7 PPG and 344.4 YPG. It'll be tasked with slowing down a Bucs attack that ran all over the Panthers in Week 7.
Despite QB Baker Mayfield making his return from a thumb injury, he was a mere side character in the proceedings, completing 7 of 11 passes for 64 yards and a TD. Instead, Tampa Bay did the brunt of the damage on the ground, rushing 49 times for 258 yards and 3 TDs.
RB Bucky Irving led the way with 24 carries, 106 rushing yards, and 2 scores.
The Bucs are around league average in PPG (23.1), and they could continue to lean on the run when possible, as they’re last in passing YPG (150.4) but third in both rushing YPG (146.4) and YPA (4.9).
Top WR Emeka Egbuka is out again this week, which could further encourage Tampa to stick with a run-heavy strategy.
The Buccaneers held the Panthers to just 13 points last week, and the defense has been a strength all year. Tampa Bay is conceding the third-fewest YPG (294.7) and ranks third in defensive DVOA, per FTN.
Falcons vs. Buccaneers Prediction on Spread – 11/1/26
Here are the key stats and trends behind our Falcons vs. Buccaneers pick against the spread for Sunday, November 1.
- Per RBSDM, Atlanta’s offense ranks just 22nd in EPA/play (-0.038) in 2026. However, if we exclude QB Cooper Rush’s disastrous starts in Weeks 1 and 2 and only look at five games with Penix, the club has produced 0.128 EPA/play. That would be a top-five mark over the full season.
- Despite the Falcons’ mediocre surface-level numbers on defense, they rank 11th in DVOA.
- Atlanta's done a good job of stopping the run, holding opponents to the fourth-fewest rushing YPG (88.9). This's backed up by the team ranking third in run stop win rate (33%), per ESPN.
- Tampa Bay’s offense could be in trouble if forced to air it out. Among 34 qualified starters, Mayfield is 33rd in adjusted EPA/play (-0.122). In contrast, Penix ranks 10th (0.191).
- Last week, Mayfield took no sacks in a game where he attempted just 11 passes. However, he still has the NFL’s highest sack rate (10.8%).
- The Falcons boast the league’s fourth-best pressure rate (41.4%), per Sharp Football Analysis.
- Since Penix returned in Week 3, Atlanta is 3-1 against the spread as an underdog and 2-0 on the road.
Make your Falcons vs. Buccaneers picks on PrizePicks for Sunday’s NFL game.
Falcons vs. Buccaneers Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 11/1/26
Here are the top Falcons vs. Buccaneers picks to target on Sunday, November 1. Today’s NFL picks for PrizePicks include Bijan Robinson and Bucky Irving.
Falcons RB Bijan Robinson vs. Buccaneers: 112 Rush + Rec Yards
- While this is a tough matchup for Robinson, he’s averaging the league’s third-most scrimmage YPG (129.6) off 18.7 carries and 4.6 targets per game.
- Robinson has tallied 113+ scrimmage yards in five of seven contests. The two times he didn’t were in negative game scripts where the Falcons trailed just about from start to finish.
- Among RBs with at least 50 carries, Robinson ranks first in yards after contact per attempt (4.33), per PFF.
- Atlanta prefers a run-heavy attack, ranking 30th in pass rate over expected.
- Backup RB Brian Robinson is out for the second straight week. According to JJ Zachariason, Bijan out-snapped RB Khalil Herbert 52 to 9 with Brian out, leading to a season-high 82.5% snap share.
- In his two games against Tampa Bay in 2025, Robinson posted 124 and 175 scrimmage yards.
Add Bijan Robinson + Falcons to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.
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Buccaneers RB Bucky Irving vs. Falcons: 16.5 Rush Attempts
- Over the past three games, Irving has logged 21, 19, and 24 carries.
- The Bucs are 28th in pass rate over expected. Their 18% pass rate in Week 7 was the lowest in a game since 2016.
- Irving saw a season-high 84.9% snap share in Week 6’s overtime loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. That dropped to just 58.3% last week due to the lopsided score.
- Among RBs with at least 50 carries, Irving is sixth in yards after contact per attempt (3.64).
- Irving leads the team in red-zone carries (21) by a wide margin, per FantasyPros. The Tampa backfield logged 9 such rushes in Week 7, and Irving saw 7 of them.
Add Bucky Irving + Buccaneers to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.
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The Falcons and Buccaneers are both coming off wins, and the NFC South remains ripe for the taking following another loss for the Panthers. Which team can take advantage and get a key division victory?
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