Dodgers vs. Pirates Prediction, MLB Picks for Thursday, June 11

The first pitch of the MLB game between the Los Angeles Dodgers (43-25) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (35-33) is set for 6:40 p.m. ET on Thursday, June 11. The Dodgers are favored to win on the road in PNC Park today, with a 1.58x payout, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

With the Dodgers winning the first game of the series, and the Pirates taking the second, now we head into the rubber match with the Dodgers’ seven-series win streak on the line.

Below, we'll break down our Dodgers vs. Pirates prediction and picks for Thursday’s MLB matchup, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

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Dodgers vs. Pirates Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Thursday, June 11

After the Dodgers' 13-2 pummeling of the Pirates in the first game of the series on Monday — which featured a 10-run seventh inning from Los Angeles — Pittsburgh responded with a win on Wednesday.

No team had been able to get to Dodgers P/DH Shohei Ohtani, who had allowed only 5 earned runs in his first 10 starts this year, for a minuscule 0.74 ERA. On Tuesday, the Pirates tapped him for a season-high 3 earned runs, leading to a 9-8 win and tying up the series 1-1. 

For the series finale, the Dodgers will start Justin Wrobleski (4.41 xFIP in 68.2 IP, 10 starts). It’s a breakout year for the third-year lefty, as it marks his first season as a full-time starter. He has already become one of the top MLB starters, ranking top-ten in several categories with a 2.62 ERA (sixth), 1.00 WHIP (fifth), and .214 opponents’ BA (10th). 

It’s business as usual for the reigning two-time champion Dodgers, as they have the second-best record in MLB.

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We’re starting to see Los Angeles run away with the National League West; since May 19, their 13-6 record is the best in MLB, while every other NL West team’s record is below .500 during that time. This has resulted in the Dodgers going from 0.5 games ahead in the division to 7.5 games.

The Pirates will counter with RHP Mitch Keller (4.21 xFIP in 73 IP, 13 starts). It’s another brutal year for Keller; he’s entering this start with a 4.81 ERA, and it could be his fourth consecutive season with an ERA above 4.00. He’s coming off an awful recent stretch; the righty has allowed 6+ earned runs in back-to-back starts for the first time since August 2024.

The Pirates are having a great season and could make their first playoff appearance since 2015. The Brewers are starting to pull away in the National League Central, and Pittsburgh is 7.5 games behind in the division. However, they are in the thick of the NL Wild Card race and are only 0.5 games behind the third wild card spot. 

As long as they continue to hit well, they could stay in contention; since May 27, the Pirates are third in barrel rate (10.1%) and ninth in wOBA (.343).

Dodgers vs. Pirates Winner Payout, Over/Under – Thursday, June 11

The Dodgers enter Thursday’s game as road favorites at PNC Park, returning a 1.58x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Dodgers vs. Pirates game on PrizePicks.

• Spread: Dodgers -1.5 (1.88x payout)
• Over/Under: 9.5 (1.88x payout on Over)
• Game Winner Payout: Dodgers 1.58x | Pirates 2.27x

Pick the Dodgers vs. Pirates spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

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Dodgers vs. Pirates Prediction on Over/Under – 6/11/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Dodgers vs. Pirates prediction on the run total for the MLB game on Thursday, June 11.

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Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.

• This season, Wrobleski allowed 7 earned runs to the Braves, who rank fourth in the league in wOBAcon (.381), and 5 earned runs to the Brewers, who rank 15th in wOBAcon (.362).
• The Pirates rank third in MLB in wOBAcon (.382).
• The Dodgers’ starter allows his opponents to crush the ball, as his 42.4% hard-hit rate ranks in the 26th percentile. The Pirates rank ninth in the league with a 40.7% hard-hit rate.
• Keller struggles to generate swings and misses, as his 20.9% whiff rate ranks in the 18th percentile.
• The Dodgers hold the advantage as their 23.7% whiff rate ranks ninth in baseball.
• Some notable Dodgers hitters have previous success against Keller, including 1B Freddie Freeman, who is 9-for-18 with a home run.
• The Dodgers and Pirates are two of six teams in the league that are averaging 5 runs scored per game.

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Dodgers vs. Pirates Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks – 6/11/26

Here are the top Dodgers vs. Pirates picks to target on PrizePicks for Thursday, June 11. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Shohei Ohtani and Bryan Reynolds.

Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani vs. Pirates Projection: 2.5 Hits+Runs+RBI

• Ohtani has been successful against Keller, going 4-for-11 with a double, triple, and 2 home runs.
• The Dodgers designated hitter has been one of the hottest players in baseball. Since May 27, he ranks fourth in wOBA (.511) and hard-hit percentage (64.7%). 
• Keller is allowing a 39.0% hard-hit rate that puts him only in the 48th percentile.
• Keller has been worse against left-handed batters with a .328 wOBA compared to .256 against righties.

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Pirates LF Bryan Reynolds vs. Dodgers Projection: 5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• The switch-hitter will bat from the right side against the southpaw Wrobleski. He’s better this year as a righty with a .433 wOBA, compared to a .336 wOBA from the left side.
• Wrobleski struggles to get hitters to swing at pitches outside of the strike zone, with a 30.1% chase rate that ranks in the 47th percentile. This benefits Reynolds, whose 22.7% chase rate ranks in the 87th percentile.
• Reynolds has been one of the top hitters in the league over the last few weeks. Since April 30, he ranks 15th with a .391 xwOBA.
• Wrobleski throws the four-seamer on 51% of his pitches, and Reynolds excels against that pitch with a 186 wRC+, the second-highest among the eight types of pitches he’s seen this season.

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The Pirates snapped their four-game losing streak and now have a chance to win the series against the defending World Series champion Dodgers. 

Mitch Keller gets the start for the Buccos, and although he’s allowed 13 total earned runs in his last 2 starts, beating Los Angeles could give him some momentum, especially with Pittsburgh being in a tight NL Wild Card race.

Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your Dodgers vs. Pirates picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.

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