Dodgers vs. Mets Prediction, MLB Picks for Sunday, July 26

The first pitch of the Los Angeles Dodgers (66-38) vs. the New York Mets (43-61) is set for 1:40 p.m. ET on Sunday, July 26, with the Dodgers returning a 1.56x payout to win, via PrizePicks.

In Saturday’s 4-2 win by the Dodgers, SP Yoshinobu Yamamoto delivered a strong outing, going 6 innings and allowing 1 earned run. RF Kyle Tucker is getting hot, as he hit his second home run of the series.

The Mets’ fielding problems were the difference in this loss, as a throwing error by 1B Brett Baty on a potential inning-ending double play extended the inning and allowed the Dodgers to score 2 runs. The Dodgers are looking to pull the brooms out vs. the Mets on Sunday.

Below, we'll break down our Dodgers vs. Mets prediction and picks for Sunday’s MLB matchup, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Dodgers vs. Mets prediction on PrizePicks now!

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Dodgers vs. Mets Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Sunday, July 26

The Dodgers will hand the ball to SP Emmet Sheehan (3.93 xFIP in 87.2 IP, 18 starts). It’s been a tough start to Sheehan’s career, as he tries to establish a spot in the rotation.

In 2023, he did not have a great rookie season, finishing with a 4.92 ERA, but he may have been a victim of bad luck, as Sheehan posted a 3.45 xERA. He missed all of 2024 after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

He enjoyed a breakout season last year, going 6-3 with a 2.82 ERA and 3.00 xERA. This year, unfortunately, he has regressed to 4-7 with a 5.13 ERA, but the 3.88 xERA shows there’s still potential. 

Sheehan has excellent movement, ranking above average in vertical drop on three of his four pitches, paired with inducing swings and misses thanks to a 30.4% whiff rate that’s in the 84th percentile.

Despite Sheehan’s struggles, the Dodgers keep chugging along, with the best record in baseball. It’s going to be difficult for the rest of the National League West to catch up, as they hold a 12-game lead.

The Mets will start SP Freddy Peralta (4.26 xFIP in 109.1 IP, 21 starts). Peralta was a big acquisition for New York in the offseason, but it hasn’t paid off as he holds a 5.13 ERA.

Like Sheehan, he could be pitching better than the numbers show, given his 3.82 xERA. Peralta is coming off his worst start of the season, allowing 7 earned runs against his former team, the Brewers.

Could this be the last start for Peralta in a Mets uniform ahead of August 3's trade deadline? New York could look to move the starter since he's set to be a free agent at the end of the season. 

The Mets will likely look very different within a week. MLB insider Chelsea Janes reports that LF Juan Soto, RF Carson Benge, CF A.J. Ewing, SP Nolan McLean, and SP Christian Scott are the only players the Mets will not trade. With the Mets having the league’s biggest payroll and no success to show for it, do not be surprised if they trade away some of their high-paid stars.

Dodgers vs. Mets Winner Payout, Over/Under – Sunday, July 26

The Dodgers enter Sunday’s game as road favorites, returning a 1.56x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Dodgers vs. Mets game on PrizePicks.

• Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (1.96x payout)
• Over/Under: 8.5 (1.72x payout on Over)
• Game Winner Payout: Dodgers 1.56x | Mets 2.32x

Make your Dodgers vs. Mets prediction on the spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 36 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Dodgers vs. Mets Prediction on Spread – 7/26/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Dodgers vs. Mets prediction on the run line for Sunday, July 26.

Data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.

• The Dodgers are 37-16 against teams under .500 and 48-26 against right-handed starters, both of which are the best in baseball.
• Peralta struggles to get opponents to swing outside the strike zone with a 28.8% chase rate that’s in the 33rd percentile. The Dodgers’ 27.1% chase rate ranks second in the league.
• Sheehan excels at getting batters to go after pitches outside the strike zone, as his 35.3% chase rate is in the 91st percentile. The Mets sit 17th with a 30.8% chase rate.
• The Mets don’t hit well in their own ballpark, as their .307 wOBA and -14.6 wRAA at home rank 25th.
• Hitting away from Los Angeles doesn’t bother the Dodgers, as their .353 wOBA and 61.4 wRAA on the road top the league.

Lock in your Dodgers vs. Mets prediction on PrizePicks before the first pitch.

Dodgers vs. Mets Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks – 7/26/26

Here are the top Dodgers vs. Mets picks to target on PrizePicks for Sunday, July 26. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Shohei Ohtani and Bo Bichette.

Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani vs. Mets: 7.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• Ohtani has shown off his power against Peralta, with a .909 xSLG and 2 home runs.
• The Dodgers' two-way star can crush the ball with a 53.5% hard-hit rate that’s in the 98th percentile. This is an area in which Peralta has stumbled, as he’s allowing a 38.7% hard-hit rate that’s only in the 49th percentile.
• Peralta has allowed a .349 wOBA against lefties compared to a .331 wOBA against righties, paired with a 15.1% HR/FB rate for left-handed hitters compared to 10.1% for right-handed hitters. That could benefit the left-handed-hitting Ohtani.
• The four-seamer and changeup account for 68% of Peralta’s pitches against left-handed batters. Ohtani has a .562 xSLG and 55.6% hard-hit rate against the four-seamer and a .554 xSLG and 48.6% hard-hit rate against the changeup.

Add Shohei Ohtani to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Mets 3B Bo Bichette vs. Dodgers: 5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• Bichette had a brutal start to the season with a .256 wOBA, .086 ISO, and .276 xBA until June 2. He has turned that around with a .353 wOBA, .160 ISO, and .282 xBA since June 3.
• His .278 xBA ranks in the 87th percentile, which could shine against Sheehan, who is allowing a .232 xBA that’s in the 61st percentile.
• Sheehan throws a slider on 46% of his pitches to right-handed batters. The right-handed-hitting Bichette is excellent against the slider with a .493 xSLG and a .359 xwOBA.
• The Dodgers' starter has a strong 35.3% chase rate, but when Bichette does go after pitches outside the strike zone, he can handle them, with his 65.7% chase contact rate being well above the league average (57.9%).

Add Bo Bichette to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Make Dodgers vs. Mets Picks on PrizePicks

Los Angeles is coming out of the All-Star Break on fire with a 7-2 record, including four straight wins. The Dodgers are going for their first sweep in the second half of the season on Sunday. New York continues to regress, and the organization will likely get rid of some of its top players before the trade deadline.

Don’t wait until the first pitch happens — make your Dodgers vs. Mets picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 36 states.

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