Diamondbacks vs. Pirates Prediction, MLB Picks for Tuesday, July 28

Diamondbacks vs. Pirates is set for first pitch at 6:40 p.m. ET on Tuesday, July 28, with the Pirates favored and returning a 1.81x payout if they win, via PrizePicks.

After pulling off a 3-2 win on Monday, the Pirates will turn to SP Bubba Chandler (3-8, 4.47 ERA) on Tuesday. The Diamondbacks will counter with SP Brandon Pfaadt (5-1, 4.43 ERA), who has won each of his last five starts. Can he make it six?

Below, we’ll break down our Diamondbacks vs. Pirates prediction and picks for Tuesday’s MLB game, including game winner, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

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Diamondbacks vs. Pirates Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Tuesday, July 28

The Diamondbacks and Pirates have identical 55-52 records, but they've reached them in very different ways. The Pirates have a +41 run differential, largely thanks to their potent lineup. Per FanGraphs, their 108 wRC+ is the fourth-highest mark in baseball. Their 556 runs scored trail only the Nationals.

The Diamondbacks have a -4 run differential, and their 93 wRC+ ranks 25th in baseball. The advantage they have over the Pirates comes in the later innings.

Arizona’s bullpen has a 4.07 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP, while Pittsburgh’s has a 4.48 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP.

Diamondbacks vs. Pirates Winner Payout, Over/Under – Tuesday, July 28

The Pirates enter Tuesday’s game as a home favorite against the Diamondbacks, returning a 1.81x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Diamondbacks vs. Pirates game on PrizePicks Team Picks — where you can make real-money predictions on every MLB game!

Make your Diamondbacks vs. Pirates prediction on spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks — available in 36 states!

Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.

Diamondbacks vs. Pirates Prediction on Winner – 7/28/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Diamondbacks vs. Pirates prediction on the winner for Tuesday, July 28.

• The Diamondbacks have lost three straight games, each of which came on the road. They are 24-30 away from Arizona this season.
• The Pirates are 29-26 at home, posting a .798 OPS there. On the road, they have a .716 OPS.
• Pittsburgh has a significant advantage in the power department, hitting the ninth-most home runs in baseball. Arizona has hit the third-fewest dingers.
• Pfaadt has allowed 1.4 HR/9 for his career. He’s not fooling many hitters, posting a 16.1% strikeout rate in 2026.
• The Diamondbacks have the seventh-worst road OPS (.680) in the sport.

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Diamondbacks vs. Pirates Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 7/28/26

Here are some top Diamondbacks vs. Pirates picks to target on Tuesday, July 28. Today's MLB picks for PrizePicks include OF Corbin Carroll and SP Brandon Pfaadt.

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Diamondbacks OF Corbin Carroll vs. Pirates: 6.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• Carroll has scored at least 1 run in six of his last seven games. With 63 runs scored overall, he's pushing for his fourth straight season with at least 100.
• The star outfielder has a selective eye, posting an 11.5% walk rate. That’s noteworthy because Chandler has control issues that have resulted in his 12.7% walk rate.
• Chandler has limited right-handed hitters to a .278 wOBA, but lefties have a .340 wOBA against him.
• The Pirates' young right-hander has allowed 10 home runs, 8 of which have been launched by lefties.

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Diamondbacks SP Brandon Pfaadt vs. Pirates: 15.5 Pitching Outs

• Pfaadt began the season in the Diamondbacks’ starting rotation, logging at least 6 innings in two of his first three starts.
• The Diamondbacks eventually shifted the 27-year-old to the bullpen, resulting in him making 10 straight relief appearances before being sent to the minors.
• Each of Pfaadt’s last five outings has been a start since being recalled. He logged 16+ outs in four of them.
• In his first start back in the rotation, the fourth-year hurler only threw 66 pitches. He's since been stretched out more, throwing exactly 87 pitches in each of his last two outings. He finished with 16 and 18 outs in those two games.

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The Pirates look to earn another win at home after a low-scoring affair Monday. Carroll, meanwhile, aims to continue his hot hitting for the Diamondbacks in what is a favorable matchup vs. Chandler. Now starting again, Pfaadt could give the Diamondbacks significant length once more.

Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your Diamondbacks vs. Pirates picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 36 states.

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