NFL Week 2 slate marches on with five afternoon games on Sunday, September 20, including the Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys, from AT&T Stadium. The Cowboys enter as 3.5-point favorites on the spread, returning a 1.44x payout if they win today's 4:25 p.m. ET game on FOX, per PrizePicks.
Both teams are coming off Week 1 losses to division rivals and look to avoid an 0-2 start in the NFC East.
Below, we’ll break down our Commanders vs. Cowboys prediction and picks for Sunday’s NFL game, including the spread.
Make your Commanders vs. Cowboys picks on PrizePicks now!
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Commanders vs. Cowboys Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Sunday, September 20
Neither team got the result they wanted in Week 1, with the Cowboys being dominated by the Giants on Sunday Night Football, while the Commanders fell a two-point conversion short in Philadelphia.
What’s at stake if you fall to 0-2? About 88% of 0-2 teams missed the postseason in the last 25 years, with only one winning the Super Bowl.
The story for the Cowboys continues to be their defense, which, based on EPA/drive (-2.8), was the worst defensive performance by any team in Week 1. It was worse than any of their defensive games last year and the third-worst defensive EPA/drive performance by any team since the start of the 2025 season.
The Cowboys allowed the Giants to control the clock, as New York converted 9 of 10 third-down conversions and had three scoring drives of 10 plays or more.
The defense was supposed to improve on last year, when it finished last in pass and scoring defense and 30th in total defense. The offense was good enough to win, finishing fifth in EPA/play (0.271) and eighth in success rate (48.3%) in Week 1, RBSDM.
The Commanders had their chances in Philadelphia, but they missed an extra point and a two-point conversion in the loss. The offense posted 295 total yards and finished 12th in EPA/play (0.073) in Week 1.
Washington’s defense kept the game close, holding the Eagles to five three-and-outs and only 10 first downs, far below the league average of 19.8 first downs in Week 1.
Commanders vs. Cowboys Spread, Over/Under – Sunday, September 20
The Cowboys enter Sunday’s game as 3.5-point favorites against the Commanders, returning a 1.78x payout on PrizePicks if they win outright.
Make your Commanders vs. Cowboys prediction on the over/under on PrizePicks.
PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Commanders vs. Cowboys Prediction on Over/Under – 9/20/26
Here are the key stats and trends behind our Commanders vs. Cowboys prediction on the over/under for Sunday, September 20.
- The Cowboys are 17-4 ATS as a home favorite vs. divisional opponents since 2017, the best in football. Those 21 games have gone over 16 times.
- After Week 1, Dallas is in familiar territory at the bottom of the defensive rankings: 26th in total defense (394.0), 27th in rushing defense (165.0), last in third-down defense, and 26th in Defensive DVOA.
- Dallas played the most overs in the NFL last season, featuring 12 of its 17 games.
- Over the last three seasons, five of the six matchups between these teams have gone over the total, with 48 points as the lowest combined score among those five games.
- The Commanders played 62.5% of their games over the total last year.
- While the Washington defense stepped up in the second half in Philadelphia, the unit finished last in total defense, 30th in rush defense, 28th in pass defense, and 27th in scoring defense in 2025.
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Commanders vs. Cowboys Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks – 9/20/26
Here are the top Commanders vs. Cowboys picks to target on PrizePicks for Sunday, September 20. Today’s PrizePicks picks include QB Jayden Daniels, WR Terry McLaurin, and QB Dak Prescott.
Commanders QB Jayden Daniels vs. Cowboys: 37.5 Rush Yards
- In three career games vs. the Cowboys, Jayden Daniels has 19 carries for 136 rushing yards (7.2 yards per carry) and 2 TDs.
- In the two games with a full workload (the other was a Week 18 game), Daniels rushed for 74 and 35 yards.
- The former #2 overall pick has hit 30+ yards rushing in 19 of 25 career games, including 31 vs. Philadelphia last week.
- Dallas allowed 165 yards rushing in Week 1, including 54 to Giants QB Jaxson Dart.
Add Jayden Daniels to your PrizePicks lineup now.
Commanders WR Terry McLaurin vs. Cowboys: 53.5 Receiving Yards
- This could be a good buy-low spot for Terry McLaurin, who was held to 2 catches for 14 yards in Philadelphia. Commanders GM Adam Peters said the Eagles were strategically double-covering him.
- McLaurin cleared 53.5 in six of his final eight games last season, going for 60+ in four of them.
- He had 63 receiving yards in his only meeting with Dallas last year, paired with averaging 58.8 yards in 12 career games vs. the Cowboys. He went past 53.5 in eight of them.
- Dallas struggled vs. the Giants in generating pressure when blitzing and surrendered 215 yards from its nickel package (24 snaps).
Add Terry McLaurin to your PrizePicks lineup now.
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Cowboys QB Dak Prescott vs. Commanders: 1.5 Pass TDs
- In 15 career games vs. the Commanders, Dak Prescott is 13-2 with 32 TDs and 5 INTs. That's his second-most TD passes vs. an opponent and best TD-to-INT ratio.
- Over Dak’s last 12 games vs. the Commanders, he’s thrown for 2+ TDs in nine of them.
- Over his last 14 games dating back to 2025, the Mississippi State product has thrown 2+ TDs in 10 appearances.
- Last week vs. the Giants, Prescott threw 2 TDs and finished fourth among all QBs with 0.425 EPA/play.
Add Dak Prescott to your PrizePicks lineup now.
Make Commanders vs. Cowboys Picks on PrizePicks
One team is going to leave AT&T Stadium 0-2. Will the Cowboys get off the mat after being embarrassed by the Giants in Week 1? Or will Washington finally stop Dak Prescott and get a much-needed win?
Don't wait until kickoff — make your Commanders vs. Cowboys picks on PrizePicks now for Week 2 and earn real money if you're right.
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