Colts vs. Steelers Prediction, Spread, NFL Picks – Sunday, October 11

In what’s turning out to be an absolutely jam-packed AFC playoff picture early in the season, some teams have yet to stand out for good or bad reasons. That assessment certainly applies to the Indianapolis Colts and Pittsburgh Steelers, who will battle on Sunday for the right to get above .500.

Ahead of kickoff at 1 p.m. ET on CBS, Pittsburgh is a narrow 2.5-point favorite against visiting Indianapolis. Will the tried and true duo of HC Mike McCarthy and QB Aaron Rodgers get the job done, or could the greatness of RB Jonathan Taylor be too much for the Steel Curtain to contend with?

Below, we'll break down our Colts vs. Steelers prediction and picks for Sunday’s NFL game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Colts vs. Steelers prediction on PrizePicks now.

{{nfl_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Colts vs. Steelers Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Sunday, October 11

The Steelers enter Sunday’s game as 2.5-point home favorites over the Colts, returning a 1.61x payout if they win outright.

Here are the full payouts for the Colts vs. Steelers game on PrizePicks.

Make your Colts vs. Steelers pick on spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks.

Payouts show potential returns on correct Team Picks predictions. A 2x payout returns $200 on a $100 entry. Lower multipliers reflect outcomes users are picking as more likely. Payouts are live as of writing and subject to change.

After getting out to a scorching-hot 7-1 start last season, the Colts fell into a horrific slump down the stretch as their offense got (at least partially) figured out by the league. A season-ending Achilles injury to QB Daniel Jones certainly didn’t help matters, as it put Indy in a precarious position en route to dropping its final seven regular-season contests.

Following Jones’ quick recovery during the offseason, HC Shane Steichen’s crew went winless in Weeks 1 and 2 but has recovered to triumph in consecutive outings. The Colts roll into Week 5 with some momentum and are starting to find their way a bit on the offensive side of the ball, ranking 13th in per-drive scoring and fourth in lowest turnover rate.

It’s the defensive end where Indianapolis struggles. Despite having a premier coordinator in Lou Anarumo drawing up the scheme and calling plays, the Colts are 27th in yards per drive surrendered and have generated just a pair of takeaways in four weeks. According to RBSDM, this is the sport’s 22nd-ranked defense in terms of EPA per play (0.039), which could be good news for Pittsburgh.

Speaking of which, the Steelers are still attempting to find themselves as well after a 10-7 campaign ended with a third straight Wild Card Round loss and the departure of longtime HC Mike Tomlin. In is McCarthy, who’s reunited with Rodgers for the first time since 2018 in Green Bay, although the results are mixed. 

Pittsburgh’s alternated wins and losses in 2026, taking down the Atlanta Falcons and Cincinnati Bengals but falling short vs. the New England Patriots and Cleveland Browns. The latter bout featured a near-comeback fueled by Rodgers, only to leave the Steelers looking up at both Cleveland and the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North standings.

The McCarthy-led offensive attack is bottom-six in points and yards per drive but is leaning into airing it out regardless. Per nfelo, Pittsburgh sits fourth in pass rate over expected (+3.3%) and eighth in average depth of target (9.3 yards) after being ninth (-0.7%) and dead last (6.0), respectively, in 2025.

As expected, DC Patrick Graham’s defense is quite respectable and owns the fourth-highest takeaway share (15.6%) while being eighth in time and points per possession. 

Regarding injuries, star Colts WR Alec Pierce (heel) is on injured reserve and WR Keenan Allen (rest, groin) is questionable but practiced in full capacity on Friday. For the Steelers, CB Jalen Ramsey (wrist) was limited on Friday and is questionable. RB Rico Dowdle (toe) is questionable after being limited all week, but WR Michael Pittman Jr. (foot) is also now on IR.

The two teams have faced each other five times this decade, although last November’s 27-20 Steelers win is the most relevant recent outcome. In that contest, Jones struggled and tossed 3 INTs while taking 5 sacks on the afternoon. 

Colts vs. Steelers Prediction on Spread – 10/11/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Colts vs. Steelers prediction on the spread for Sunday, October 11’s game. 

• The Steelers are 1-0 against the spread as home favorites in 2026; the Colts are 1-0 as road underdogs. The two squads went 3-1-1 and 3-1 ATS in those respective splits a season ago. 
• If Pittsburgh gets into a rhythm in this one, look out. Rodgers and Co. are producing a whopping 11.4 yards per completion to Indy’s 9.0. Sharp Football Analysis reveals that the Colts have surrendered more 30+ yard plays (12) than any team.
• Sustaining drives could prove tricky for the road team in hostile territory. Per Jefe’s Handiwork, Indianapolis sits 19th in series conversion rate (69.1%) on offense. Pittsburgh’s defense is sixth (67.0%) in the same category.
• Expanding on that, the Colts’ offense is 28th on third downs (32.0%) and 25th on fourth downs (33.3%). Pittsburgh holds its foes to conversion rates of 29.17% (fourth) and 37.5% (10th) in those instances. 
• Furthering that defensive gap is the Steelers holding an average advantage of 1.5 in takeaways, as well as giving up 70.0 fewer yards each time out.

Lock in your Colts vs. Steelers prediction on PrizePicks now.

Colts vs. Steelers Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 10/11/26

Here are the top Colts vs. Steelers picks to target on Sunday, October 11. Today’s NFL picks for PrizePicks include RB Jonathan Taylor and QB Aaron Rodgers.

Colts RB Jonathan Taylor vs. Steelers: 85.5 Rush Yards

• The reigning NFL carry (323), first down (84), and TD (18) leader owns a career-best 55.8% success rate on the ground this year. 
• According to SumerSports, among RBs with 25+ carries, Taylor is ninth in EPA/rush (0.05).
• Operating on outside zone (42.7%) has been Taylor’s bread and butter this year. The Steelers allow 3.64 yards after contact per attempt on outside rushes in 2026, the eighth-highest share in the league.
• Via 4for4, Taylor has logged 72.7% of the Colts’ possible red-zone rushing attempts, ranking seventh. 
• Indianapolis enters Week 5 with a -4.0% PROE, and Pittsburgh sits just 19th in EPA/rush (-0.087) ceded on defense. There’s ample incentive to give Taylor some volume here. 

Add Jonathan Taylor + Colts to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

{{nfl_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers vs. Colts: 223.5 Pass Yards

• Rodgers has thrown for 290+ yards in back-to-back games, posting his most intended air yards per pass (8.7) on the year. The latter is his most since 2019. 
• Pittsburgh’s 41.8 dropbacks per game rank sixth. The last time Rodgers sniffed 250.0 yards per game (249.8 entering Week 5) was 2021, his last MVP campaign.
• Via NFL Pro, Rodgers has seen man coverage on 49.0% of dropbacks, the most by a QB since 2020. Indianapolis goes to it at the sixth-highest clip (34.0%) in the sport, giving up the most yards per target (11.5) to WRs.
• The Colts are nothing special as a pass defense, slotting in at 20th in dropback EPA/play (0.089). 

Add Aaron Rodgers + Steelers to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Make Colts vs. Steelers Picks on PrizePicks

Although they aren’t in the same division, this intraconference bout between Indianapolis and Pittsburgh very well could matter by the time final standings are sorted out in January. Can the Colts stay on track and extend their winning streak to three games, or will the Steelers finally establish some consistency en route to a victory?

Don’t wait until kickoff — make your Colts vs. Steelers picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on NFL game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 36 states.

Stay locked in on Playbook for daily NFL predictions, picks, and news all the way through Super Bowl LXI.