Colts vs. Commanders Prediction, Spread, NFL Picks for London Game – 10/4/26

For the first time in 2026, the NFL will hold an international game on Sunday morning, with the Indianapolis Colts taking on the Washington Commanders at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London.

In a battle between 1-2 teams at 9:30 a.m. on NFL Network, the Colts are 3.5-point favorites against the Commanders on PrizePicks. Washington is coming off a 33-31 upset win over the Seattle Seahawks in Week 3, while Indianapolis topped the Houston Texans 19-17. 

Below, we'll break down our Colts vs. Commanders prediction and picks for Sunday’s NFL London game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Colts vs. Commanders prediction on PrizePicks now.

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Colts vs. Commanders Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Sunday, October 4

The Colts got off to a hot start in 2025, racing out to a 7-1 record out of the gate. However, QB Daniel Jones suffered a torn Achilles tendon in early December and missed the remainder of the season. As a result, the Colts convinced QB Philip Rivers to come out of retirement, but the team ultimately missed the playoffs with an 8-9 record.

The 2026 campaign hasn’t gotten off to the most impressive start. The Colts began the season with a 41-23 loss to the Baltimore Ravens, who racked up 506 yards of total offense. 

Meanwhile, Indianapolis followed that up with perhaps its most polarizing performance of the young season, falling 33-30 to the Kansas City Chiefs in overtime. In last week’s 19-17 win, K Spencer Shrader knocked through a 53-yard game-winning field goal as time expired.

Like many previous years, RB Jonathan Taylor has been the straw that stirs the drink for the Colts. Taylor has rushed for 258 yards (3.9 yards per carry) and 4 TDs, including notching 90+ yards in two of his three games.

Defensively, the Colts are embarking on their first full season with star CB Sauce Gardner in the fold. However, Indianapolis has struggled on defense, allowing a league-worst 417.3 total yards per contest.

Meanwhile, after advancing to the NFC Championship Game the previous season, the Commanders suffered through a 5-12 campaign in 2026. QB Jayden Daniels was limited to just seven games after suffering multiple injuries, including an elbow ailment that prematurely ended his season.

Fast forward to 2026, and Daniels is currently out of the lineup with another dislocated elbow after suffering the injury against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 2. 

With Daniels out, QB Marcus Mariota stepped into the spotlight and led the Commanders to their first win in Week 3. Mariota completed 19 of 31 passes for 183 yards and 3 TDs to pace the Commanders’ offense.

Defensively, the Commanders forced 3 Seahawks turnovers in QB Sam Darnold’s first game back since suffering a glute injury in the team’s opener. Washington is surrendering 362.3 total yards per game (27th in the NFL) but has defended the run extremely well, giving up just 82.0 yards per contest (third).

Indianapolis owns a 21-13-0 record against Washington in the all-time series, with wins in four of the last five matchups. 

On the injury front, the Commanders are slated to be without Daniels (elbow) and RB Rachaad White (shoulder). Additionally, WR Terry McLaurin is questionable with a hamstring injury after appearing on the team’s injury report Friday.

The Colts are dealing with a lack of depth at WR, as they won’t have the services of WR Keenan Allen (groin). WR Alec Pierce is currently on injured reserve due to a heel injury.

Colts vs. Commanders Spread, Over/Under – Sunday, October 4

The Colts enter Sunday’s game as 3.5-point favorites over the Commanders, returning a 1.44x payout if they win outright.

Here are the full payouts for the Colts vs. Commanders game on PrizePicks.

Make your Colts vs. Commanders pick on spread or over/under on PrizePicks.

Payouts show potential returns on correct Team Picks predictions. A 2x payout returns $200 on a $100 entry. Lower multipliers reflect outcomes users are picking as more likely. Payouts are live as of writing and subject to change.

Colts vs. Commanders Prediction on Over/Under – 10/4/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Colts vs. Commanders prediction on the over/under for Sunday, October 4’s game. 

• The over is 3-0 in the Commanders’ three games, also carrying a 2-1 mark in the Colts’ contests.
• Both secondaries have struggled early on this season. According to Sumer Sports, the Commanders have allowed a 0.15 EPA/pass (26th), while the Colts have surrendered a 0.17 EPA/pass (28th). 
• The Colts have allowed 30.3 PPG (30th) in 2026, while the Commanders have given up 30.7.
• According to Sharp Football Analysis, the Colts own a 5.3% explosive play rate, ranking 18th in the league. Meanwhile, the Commanders are ripping off explosive plays 3.5% of the time. 
• The Colts boast a 44.2% success rate (14th) offensively while also tallying a 0.064 rush EPA/play (third), per RBSDM. Taylor is seventh in the sport in rushing yards and second in TDs.
• The Commanders’ defense is sixth in EPA/rush (-0.18) but allowed Philadelphia Eagles RB Saquon Barkley to run for 83 yards and 5.5 yards per carry in Week 1.

Lock in your Colts vs. Commanders prediction on PrizePicks now.

Colts vs. Commanders Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 10/4/26

Here are the top Colts vs. Commanders picks to target on Sunday, October 4. Sunday's NFL picks for PrizePicks include RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt and QB Daniel Jones.

Commanders RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt vs. Colts: 59.5 Rush Yards 

• Croskey-Merritt has toted the ball 47 times for 142 yards (3.0 yards per carry) and a TD. While he's only rushed for 60+ yards in one game in 2026, his volume should increase with White out.
• The Commanders’ second-year RB has registered 114 yards after contact, tied for 21st among RBs.
• According to Player Profiler, Croskey-Merritt's tallied 11 evaded tackles (17th).
• The Colts have allowed 0.10 EPA/rush (31st) and 141.3 rushing yards per game (29th) through three weeks.

Add Jacory Croskey-Merritt + Commanders to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Colts QB Daniel Jones vs. Commanders: 224.5 Pass Yards

• Jones is completing 66.3% of his passes for 611 yards to go along with 3 TDs and 3 INTs.
• The Colts’ signal-caller is averaging 32.7 passing attempts, a slight uptick from his career average of 31.7. His 98 pass attempts in 2026 rank 12th among all QBs.
• Jones has been very accurate, recording a 73.5% catchable rate when getting the ball to his pass catchers.
• Indianapolis is doing a nice job keeping pressure away from Jones, owning the sixth-ranked protection rate at 91.7%.

Add Daniel Jones + Colts to win to your PrizePicks lineup now

Make Colts vs. Commanders Picks on PrizePicks

The Commanders did finally land in the win column in Week 3 but have allowed a ton of points to the opposition. Meanwhile, the Colts’ defense hasn’t been much better on its way to a 1-2 start to the 2026 season. Might points come in bunches in front of the crowd in London?

Don’t wait until kickoff — make your Colts vs. Commanders picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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