College Football Week 1 Upset Picks Today: LSU, Auburn on Watch?

September 5, 2026

CFB
AP Photo/Butch Dill, File
Auburn Tigers HC Alex Golesh scouts prospects during the Senior Bowl.

The appetizer was served last week with eight college football games, including North Carolina and Memphis pulling off upsets over TCU and UNLV. This week, we have a full slate of contests with many upset options. The road to the College Football Playoff is underway, culminating in the CFP National Championship Game in Las Vegas on January 25.

Week 1’s games feature a couple of non-conference battles, including a neutral-site Big 12 vs. SEC bout in Atlanta. Of all the outings on Saturday, which ones might see an unexpected victor?

Below, we’ll break down our college football Week 1 upset picks today, including winner payouts, spreads, and over/unders from PrizePicks Team Picks.

Pick college football upsets today on PrizePicks!

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Week 1 College Football Upsets to Consider: Saturday, September 5

Two games stand out as potential college football upset spots in Week 1. 

Clemson hitting the road to take on #11 LSU at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC and Baylor's 3:30 p.m. clash with Auburn earlier in the day are both contests worth taking a closer look at.

The payouts listed below indicate real-money earnings if a prediction is correct; for example, a 2x on a $100 entry pays out $200. The lower the payout multiplier, the higher the chance of the outcome occurring, according to user picks.

Clemson vs. #11 LSU: CFB Upset Watch Today

Winner Spread Over/Under
CLEM Tigers 3.84x +9.5 | 1.92x o50.5 | 1.85x
LSU Tigers 1.23x -9.5 | 1.78x u50.5 | 1.85x

The Clemson Tigers opened the 2025 season ranked third in the country with high hopes of winning the ACC and returning to the CFP. A 7-point loss to LSU to open the season didn’t seem so bad until they lost to Georgia Tech and Syracuse in the coming weeks.

Only closing the regular season with four straight wins got the Tigers to a bowl game for the 21st consecutive year. 

2026 has lower expectations as the Tigers start unranked for the first time since 2011. QB Cade Klubnik is gone, replaced by senior Christopher Vizzina, who also gets Chad Morris’s return as offensive coordinator. RBs Gideon Davidson and SMU transfer Chris Johnson lead a backfield that will have to improve on last year’s 105th-ranked rushing offense.

Johnson was ranked as one of the top RBs in the portal after stints with Miami and SMU. Two of the top three WRs are back, joined by top prospect Naeem Burroughs.

No one would argue against LSU having more talent as new coach Lane Kiffin brings in an elite transfer class. Can all the new players, starting with Arizona State transfer Sam Leavitt at QB, jell in game one? 

Last year, LSU had the SEC’s worst ground game, averaging just 104 yards per game. The Tigers lost six of seven games in which they failed to rush for more than 100 yards. Leavitt was one of the top QBs in the portal, but he didn’t exactly blow the doors off at Arizona State, throwing for less than 3,000 yards during the 2024 CFP run.

Additions of Kansas State WR Jayce Brown and pass rusher Princewill Umanmielen make the Tigers more formidable, yet this is a team that won seven games last year. 

Make your Clemson vs. LSU picks on PrizePicks now.

Baylor vs. Auburn CFB Upset Watch Today

Win Spread Over/Under
BAY Bears 3.22x +7.5 | 1.81x o59.5 | 1.92x
AUB Tigers 1.31x -7.5 | 1.92x u59.5 | 1.81x

Much like LSU, Auburn has undergone a tremendous amount of change, bringing in Alex Golesh from South Florida in hopes of erasing five straight seven-loss seasons. Golesh, who oversaw the third-best offense in the nation last year, brings 13 former Bulls with him, including QB Byrum Brown and four of South Florida’s top five WRs.

Can he quickly turn around a team that finished 79th in total offense last year?

On the Baylor side, it’s a fresh start for former Florida Heisman candidate DJ Lagway. The 5-star recruit and former Mr. Texas Football, USA Today, and Gatorade National Player of the Year comes home after failing to meet expectations in Gainesville under Billy Napier. 

He takes over a Baylor Bears team that went 5-7 last year, but three of the losses were one-score games. Baylor played Houston, TCU, and Arizona State close and brought in weapons for an offense that finished 18th in the nation in yardage and 34th in scoring last season.

Lagway has experience vs. SEC defenses, and while his Florida tenure didn't go as planned, he did lead the Gators to triumphs over Texas and LSU over the past two seasons. 

Make your Baylor vs. Auburn picks on PrizePicks now.

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Make Week 1 College Football Upset Picks on PrizePicks

A full slate of college football games is on tap for Week 1, and with that, there are chances for upsets. On Saturday, Clemson aims to rebound from its worst season in a decade and ruin Kiffin’s debut in Baton Rouge. Additionally, Lagway's fresh start could help the Bears pull off the upset over Auburn.

The college football season begins with the majority of Week 1 kicking off, and users can make CFB predictions for the 2026 season.

Pick More or Less on player stats on PrizePicks to earn real money if you're right, or predict College Football Playoff qualifiers, win totals, and more on PrizePicks Team Picks—available in 36 states!

Stay locked in on Playbook for daily college football news as the 2026 regular season approaches.

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David Bearman spent 18 years with ESPN in their Stats & Information Department and overseeing their betting content. From 2023-25, he served as Chief Content Officer of Pro Football Network, overseeing all content, including coverage of Super Bowls 58 and 59. He is also the Founder of Betting with Bearman, a 3x a week betting newsletter and weekly podcast on Bleav Podcast Network.