We have reached the point in the college football season when we start seeing the break between pretenders and contenders. Were the non-conference schedules indicative of how those teams will play, or did they cover up glaring weaknesses? Saturday, October 10, brings us 46 college football games.
Last week, we nailed Kentucky’s outright upset of South Carolina, making it four straight weeks (and five upsets total) that have hit in this column. Plus, Navy was right there with Air Force in the fourth quarter.
Saturday’s slate features seven SEC games, all of which have at least one ranked team involved. #2 Georgia has its first real test of the season, playing at #6 Alabama, while #1 Texas, #9 Ole Miss, #15 Tennessee, and #10 LSU are all away from home in key matchups. Two of those games have our attention, including the big one in Tuscaloosa where the higher-ranked team is the underdog.
Below, we’ll break down our upset picks for Saturday’s CFB games, including Georgia vs. Alabama and LSU vs. Kentucky, with spreads and payouts on PrizePicks.
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College Football Predictions, Upset Picks for Week 6 – Saturday, October 10
This Saturday slate has plenty of underdogs, but two games stand out as potential college football upset spots on Saturday, October 10.
Georgia and Alabama meet in a battle of top-10 teams, down in Tuscaloosa at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC, and #10 LSU visits upstart Kentucky at 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.
The payouts listed below indicate real-money earnings if a prediction is correct; for example, a 2x on a $100 entry pays out $200. The lower the payout multiplier, the higher the chance of the outcome occurring, according to user picks.
#2 Georgia vs. #6 Alabama: CFB Upset Watch Today
Start Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | TV: ABC
It’s an undefeated showdown between two of the best teams in the country and two of the biggest brands in the game as #2 Georgia faces #6 Alabama in Tuscaloosa.
Both teams have been impressive in getting out to 5-0 starts, and the spread has reflected that, with Georgia opening as the favorite before Alabama moved into the favorite role, returning a 1.78x payout to win on PrizePicks.
The teams have two of the best offenses in the country, with Georgia third in scoring (51.4 PPG), second in yards per play (7.9), and 12th in total offense (478.8), while Alabama is fifth (49.6 PPG), ninth (7.2), and 14th (473.8).
Both teams have outstanding QBs who are in the Heisman Trophy race. Gunner Stockton ranks third nationally in passing efficiency (202.10), while Keelon Russell is sixth in passing efficiency (185.66) and fifth in yards per attempt (10.7).
But the most significant difference between these two powerhouses is on the defensive side.
Pro Football Focus ranks Georgia third nationally in defensive EPA/play allowed, making the Bulldogs one of the most efficient defenses in college football. Georgia is also seventh in total defense (244.6 yards per game), 12th in scoring defense (13.4 PPG), third in rushing defense (57.4 yards per game), and fourth in yards allowed per play (3.9).
Meanwhile, Bama is 51st in scoring defense (20.8), 39th in total defense (312.6 yards per game), and 105th in pass defense (234.0), going up against one of the nation’s most efficient passers in Stockton.
Per Fourth Down Data, Alabama is ranked 77th in defensive EPA and in the 86th percentile in defensive havoc. Alabama is 59th in tackling, per PFF, while its defensive finishing drives metric sits outside the top 100. The numbers aren’t awful, but they aren’t Georgia.
The Bulldogs have not won in Tuscaloosa since 2007, but have the defense to get it done and cement themselves as the best team in the conference.
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#10 LSU vs. Kentucky: CFB Upset Watch Today
Start Time: 7:00 p.m. ET | TV: ESPN
LSU has shown it can be a force in the 2026 season, blowing out Clemson in the opening week and following it up with comfortable wins over Louisiana Tech, Texas A&M, and McNeese.
But we also have learned that Clemson isn’t that good (also blown out by Miami), and Texas A&M then lost to Kentucky, which is LSU’s opponent this week. The Tigers also lost 32-24 in the Lane Kiffin homecoming game in the season’s third week, so we don’t really know how good they are just yet.
The Tigers' defense has been outstanding this year, ranking top three nationally in defensive EPA per play, defensive success rate allowed, passing success rate allowed, and rushing defense.
And despite LSU also putting up big numbers on offense, Kentucky can match the Tigers stat for stat and has a big edge in rushing success rate; the Wildcats have a 52.3% rushing success rate (fourth) compared to the Tigers' 44.3% (65th). UK runs the rock through the tag team of CJ Baxter and Jason Patterson in the backfield.
One area in which the Wildcats can exploit LSU is the turnover battle, as Tigers QB Sam Leavitt has thrown 7 INTs, while Kentucky has forced 10 turnovers, ranking 12th nationally.
Outside a disastrous second half against Alabama — a game Kentucky led 17-13 at halftime before allowing 32 unanswered points — the Wildcats have been one of the more surprising teams in head coach Will Stein’s first season.
Kentucky has already demonstrated it can win difficult SEC games, winning at College Station and in Columbia, and its offensive efficiency is better than its raw statistics suggest. If Kentucky can force 2 or 3 turnovers, the Wildcats have a legitimate chance to keep this within one possession — and potentially pull off the upset.
Lock in your LSU vs. Kentucky picks on PrizePicks before kickoff.
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After a midweek filled with college football, we end it with 46 games on Saturday, and plenty is on the line with chances for upsets.
Who will win the major SEC battle and take control of the conference? Can Kentucky keep its magic going and send Lane Kiffin and LSU to another loss?
You can make your college football predictions every week of the 2026 season on PrizePicks — including teams to pull off upsets.
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