Coco Gauff vs. Jessica Pegula Prediction, Pick for the Cincinnati Open – Sunday, August 23

We should have a good women’s final on our hands at the Cincinnati Open, as Americans Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula meet for the championship. Both players are ranked inside the top five, and this has been a competitive rivalry, with Pegula holding a narrow 5-4 edge in the head-to-head.

Below, we’ll break down our Coco Gauff vs. Jessica Pegula prediction, including recent form, match analysis, and a PrizePicks pick. The match is slated to start at 7:00 p.m. ET on Tennis Channel.

Make your Cincinnati Open predictions on PrizePicks for Sunday’s match now!

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Coco Gauff vs. Jessica Pegula Prediction, Favorite for the Cincinnati Open Women’s Final

Below are the payouts for who will win Sunday’s Gauff vs. Pegula match, via PrizePicks Team Picks. 

On PrizePicks Team Picks, a 2x payout represents a return of $200 on a $100 entry (or $20 on $10). A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.

Payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. Tennis winner markets are available in 36 states.

Coco Gauff vs. Jessica Pegula Cincinnati Open Prediction – Sunday, August 23

Match Winner Payouts: Gauff 1.58x | Pegula 2.27x
Tournament Round: Women’s Final
2026 Record Entering the Cincinnati Open: Gauff 34-13 | Pegula 40-11
Head-to-Head Record: Pegula leads 5-4
Scheduled Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
How to Watch: Tennis Channel

Coco Gauff dropped her opening set at this tournament, but it’s been smooth sailing ever since, winning her last four matches in straight sets. The last two rounds have been particularly uneventful, as Marta Kostyuk self-destructed on serve in the quarterfinals, and unseeded Cinderella story Sara Bejlek finally ran out of gas in the semis.

It’s been a much tougher path for Jessica Pegula, who’s now survived three straight three-setters against seeded opponents. That being said, she earned top-10 wins over Amanda Anisimova and Iga Swiatek, perhaps giving her the confidence she needs to go all the way.

The win over Swiatek was particularly noteworthy, as the former world No. 1 was riding a 10-match win streak.

While Gauff is tabbed as the favorite to win this match, it arguably could go either way.

Both players have been excellent on hard courts this season, with Gauff winning 77% of her matches and Pegula winning 83%.

Pegula has held her own versus top-10 players on this surface, too, amassing a 6-3 record. All three losses came against the same player (Elena Rybakina).

The 32-year-old leads the head-to-head 5-4, and while Gauff got the best of Pegula most recently at this year’s Wimbledon, she needed to come back from a set down to win in three.   

According to Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings, there’s practically nothing separating these two, as it pegs Pegula for a 50.1% chance of victory. 

Pegula has had to work harder to get this far, so fatigue could ultimately work against her. However, it’s possible she’s not getting enough credit as the underdog in a match that could be closer to a pick ’em.

Make your Gauff vs. Pegula Cincinnati Open prediction on PrizePicks now!

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Coco Gauff vs. Jessica Pegula Pick for the Cincinnati Open on Sunday

Gauff vs. Pegula Pick – 21.5 Total Games

Over the last three rounds, Pegula’s matches have gone 30, 31, and 32 total games.

Pegula has played 12 matches against top-10 players this season, and nine have gone to a deciding third set and/or featured a tiebreak. 

Similarly, seven of Gauff’s eight matches versus top-10 opponents in 2026 have gone three sets. 

These two have split their last two matches. In the 2025 WTA Finals, Pegula won 6-3, 6-7(4), 6-2, and at 2026 Wimbledon, Gauff got her revenge in a 4-6, 6-3, 6-3 victory. 

While Gauff hasn't faced much adversity in her Cincinnati Open run, her serve could get her in trouble against Pegula. Gauff's 10.1% double-fault rate on hard courts is the worst mark among the top 50 players this season. She's logged 5+ double faults in three of five matches here.

Make Your Cincinnati Open Predictions Today on PrizePicks

Get your popcorn ready for what should be a fantastic all-American women’s final between Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula. Who will lift the trophy on Sunday night?

Don’t wait until Sunday’s matches start—make your Cincinnati Open predictions on PrizePicks now.

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Pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats like games won or aces, or make match winner predictions with Team Picks, available in 36 states!

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