Clemson vs. California Prediction, Spread, NCAAF Picks – Friday, September 25

The 2026 college football season rolls into Week 4 as the Clemson Tigers travel across the country to take on the California Golden Bears in a battle between two 2-1 ACC teams. Kickoff is set for 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN from California Memorial Stadium in Berkeley.

Both teams enter Friday night coming off two straight wins, with Clemson rallying past North Carolina 28-20 and California dominating Wagner 49-7 in Week 3.

Can the Tigers take their positive momentum to California, or will Cal's high-volume passing attack and home-field advantage be enough to cover the 1.5-point PrizePicks spread?

Below, we'll break down our Clemson vs. California prediction and picks for Friday's college football game in Week 4, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Clemson vs. California picks on PrizePicks now!

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Clemson vs. California Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Friday, September 25

Clemson comes into Friday night riding high after overcoming a 17-3 deficit to defeat UNC in Week 3.

The truth is, the sample size isn’t large enough to know exactly how good this team is, but it's probably fair to say it isn't as bad as the squad that got boat-raced 51-10 in Baton Rouge to begin the season. Since that game, the Tigers have held their opposition to an average of 13.5 points per game.

Freshman QB Tait Reynolds has taken over the starting job and provided a boost to the passing game. Reynolds completed 20 of 29 passes for 215 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT in his first career start last week.

Clemson is clearly not a well-oiled offensive machine yet, though, as the Tigers are averaging just 297.7 total yards and 20.0 PPG, ranking 128th and 120th, respectively.

California, meanwhile, produced 626 total yards in its 49-7 victory vs. Wagner, including 492 passing yards. QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (JKS) completed 27 of 33 passes for a career-high 413 yards and 3 TDs.

JKS' future as a legit NFL prospect will come down to cutting down on some bad decisions without losing the aggressiveness that makes him special.

It'll be a battle of strengths tonight, with this pass-happy Cal team throwing into the teeth of the Clemson secondary, which has been the best part of its defense.

Clemson vs. California Spread, Over/Under – Friday, September 25

Clemson enters Friday's game as a 1.5-point favorite against California, via PrizePicks.

Here are the full payouts for Clemson vs. Cal on PrizePicks.

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Make your Clemson vs. California prediction on the spread or over/under on PrizePicks.

Clemson vs. California Prediction on Spread – 9/25/26

Here are the key stats and predictions behind our Clemson vs. California prediction on the spread for Friday, September 25.

• Clemson's biggest matchup advantage could come on the ground. Cal's defense ranks 133rd nationally in EPA/rush, 109th in rush success rate, 103rd in rush explosiveness, and 114th in line yards, via Game on Paper.
• The Tigers sit 69th in EPA/rush (0.05) offensively compared to 122nd in EPA/pass (-0.22). This shows their offense's strength is the run game.
• Cal's pass defense is considerably stronger than its run defense, slotting in at 34th nationally in EPA/pass (-0.08) compared to 133rd nationally in EPA/rush (-0.35).
• The matchup flips when Cal has the football. The Golden Bears are averaging 321.7 passing YPG and are 11th in pass rate at 55.9%. Clemson's pass defense is 26th in EPA/dropback (-0.10) and cedes just 238.0 YPG.
• Clemson has allowed opponents to complete only 49.4% of their passes while holding opposing QBs to 5.16 yards per attempt. The defensive front also contains productive names like DE Will Heldt, who has 4 sacks in three games.

Lock in your Clemson vs. California prediction on PrizePicks before Friday's game.

Clemson vs. California Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 9/25/26

Here are the top Clemson vs. California picks to target on Friday, September 25. Today's college football picks for PrizePicks include Tait Reynolds and Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele.

Clemson QB Tait Reynolds vs. California: 207.5 Pass Yards

• Reynolds has thrown for 415 yards through three games, but the more important sample is his recent two-game stretch. He threw for 178 yards off the bench against Georgia Southern before posting 215 yards in his first career start against North Carolina.
• Clemson's offense has averaged only 172.3 passing YPG, so Reynolds would need to outperform the team's season-long passing production to clear this number.
• Cal has 5 INTs, so Clemson may be selective with Reynolds' volume rather than asking the freshman to consistently attack tight coverage.
• Cal's weakness against the run also works against Reynolds, as it could let Clemson establish the ground game and limit how often Reynolds has to throw.

Add Tait Reynolds + Clemson to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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California QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele vs. Clemson: 259.5 Pass Yards

• Sagapolutele has been one of the ACC's most productive passers through three games, throwing for 866 yards and 7 touchdowns while completing 66.7% of his attempts.
• Cal's offensive philosophy may continue to give him opportunities. Sagapolutele has already attempted 108 passes in three games.
• This Cal team really struggles to run the football. Even in the win over Wagner, it ran for fewer than 140 yards on 28 carries. The Golden Bears oftentimes need to throw the ball to remain in games.
• Cal has plenty of explosive-play potential in the passing game. JKS has already connected with WR Kyion Grayes for an 80-yard TD and RB Adam Mohammed for a 65-yard score.
• The game script might also work in Sagapolutele's favor. Clemson is favored by only 1.5 points, so Cal very well could end up dropping back for the full 60 minutes.

Add Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele + California to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Make Clemson vs. California Picks on PrizePicks

College football Week 4 continues Friday night with a banger of a matchup. Will Clemson's defense and rushing attack be enough, or can Sagapolutele and Cal's high-volume passing attack make the difference?

Don't wait until kickoff — make your Clemson vs. California picks on PrizePicks. You can make predictions on yards, touchdowns, and more! Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in on your predictions if you're right.

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Keep it here with the Playbook for continued college football picks, predictions, futures, and more as we jump into 2026.