The NBA is treating fans to a five-game Christmas Day lineup featuring a group of potential playoff contenders. Thursday’s action tips off at 12:00 p.m. ET with the Cleveland Cavaliers (17-14) visiting the New York Knicks (21-9) in Madison Square Garden.
New York has delivered on expectations thus far, but Cleveland has underperformed. Which team will gift a win to its fan base during the most wonderful time of the year?
Below, we’ll list a Cavaliers vs. Knicks prediction and picks to consider among PrizePicks’ player projections for Christmas.
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Over the last 10 games, the Cavaliers carry a mediocre 5-5 record, while the Knicks are 8-2 in that split. The two faced on Oct. 22, with New York reigning supreme as 119-111 victors.
Cleveland PF Evan Mobley (calf) will miss his sixth consecutive game on Thursday, and PG Lonzo Ball missed Tuesday’s game for rest. Knicks PG Jalen Brunson (ankle) and F OG Anunoby (ankle) were absent on Tuesday.
Keep an eye on the injury report, as New York’s backcourt is already thin due to G Miles McBride’s ankle injury. Brunson is expected to make his return to the lineup.
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Over/Under, Spread
Despite Tuesday’s absences, the Knicks are still clear favorites on Christmas, returning a 1.36x with a win on PrizePicks Team Picks with an outright victory.
The Cavaliers have a tall task ahead as 5.5-point road underdogs, earning a 2.77x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
- Spread: New York Knicks -5.5
- Over/Under: 238.5
- Gamer Winner Payout: Cavaliers 2.77x | Knicks 1.36x
Team picks data is live as of publishing and is subject to change.
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Prediction on Over/Under
As the NBA’s reigning Defensive Player of the Year, Mobley’s absence has been felt, with the Cavaliers allowing 126.4 points per game over the last five. For context, Cleveland cedes 117.5 PPG on the season (20th).
The Knicks, meanwhile, have posted 120.1 PPG in the last 10 games, on par with their 120.2 PPG on the year (fourth). In the previous head-to-head meeting, New York cashed in 14-of-40 3-point attempts (35.0%). Opponents total 13.5 made treys per game (17th) while shooting 37.3% (26th) against the Cavs. The Knicks should be licking its chops, averaging 14.9 made triples (fourth).
Furthermore, New York had its way on the offensive glass in the previous matchup with nine offensive boards. As one of the Association’s top rebounding teams, the Knicks carry a 31.2% offensive rebounding percentage (third). Mobley’s 9.3 rebounds per game (RPG) lead Cleveland, and his 18.7% defensive rebounding rate is second on the team, via NBA Advanced Stats.
We have an angle for New York’s offense staying hot, but what about the Cavaliers? Cleveland also loves to shoot the 3-ball, averaging 15.3 makes (third) and 43.9 attempts (first). According to Dunks & Threes, the Cavs rank third in 3-point shot distribution.
On Oct. 22, Cleveland drained 19-of-46 looks from beyond the arc (41.3%). This department may be trustworthy, as the Knicks give up a 45.8% 3-point shot distribution (30th), 14.5 made triples per game (25th), and 39.8 attempts per contest (25th).
New York averages 91.1 field goal attempts (fourth) to the Cavs’ 92.8 (first). With plenty of shot attempts in the picture — especially from 3-point land — the NBA’s Christmas Day slate could begin with a high-scoring affair.
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Picks for NBA Christmas Day
Knicks F Mikal Bridges, Cavaliers PG Darius Garland, and New York C Mitchell Robinson stand out as key PrizePicks projections. How could each player fare on Thursday afternoon?
Knicks G Mikal Bridges vs. Cavaliers Projection: 2.5 Made 3-Pointers
- New York G Mikal Bridges ranks fourth on the Knicks with 5.7 3-point attempts per game, converting on 42.1% of his attempts.
- His 3-point volume is up to 6.3 shots per game in December and 6.8 over his last five outings.
- The former Villanova Wildcat has enjoyed 3.0 made triples per game in the previous five while shooting a blistering-hot 44.1% from deep.
- Reaching at least 20 points in three of the last four, Bridges is on an eye-catching hot streak. For context, he averages 17.0 PPG on the season.
Cavaliers G Darius Garland vs. Knicks Projection: 19.5 Points
With Mobley’s 19.1 PPG missing from the Cavaliers' lineup, Cleveland G Darius Garland could help pick up the slack.
- During Mobley’s five-game absence, Garland has posted 22.6 PPG compared to his season-long average of 17.1 PPG.
- His 14.6 field goals per game have jumped to 17.2 over the last five contests.
- According to Fantasy Labs, Garland’s 26.1% usage rate rises to 31.8% when Mobley is off the court.
- The former first-round pick is averaging 3.8 made triples per game while shooting 50.0% from beyond the arc in the last five.
Knicks C Mitchell Robinson vs. Cavaliers Projection: 8 Rebounds
- New York C Mitchell Robinson is one of the game’s best offensive rebounders, proven by his league-best 22.8% offensive rebounding rate.
- Robinson brings down 8.5 rebounds per game and has averaged 10.8 over the previous five games.
- The Knicks' big man was absent for most of last season but totaled 10.3 RPG over seven meetings with the Cavs in the 2023 campaign.
Make Cavaliers vs. Knicks Picks on PrizePicks
Are the Cavaliers and Knicks in store for another high-scoring game?
Make your NBA Christmas Day picks at PrizePicks, where you can earn real-money rewards for your predictions if you’re right. Just choose players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and follow the hoops action to see if your picks hit.
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