First pitch for the St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres game is set for 10:00 p.m. ET on ESPN on Thursday, May 7, with the Padres entering as home favorites and returning a 1.56x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win.
Today is the opener of a four-game series between these teams. The Cardinals and Padres will play a total of seven outings against each other this season, with the next series scheduled for mid-June.
Below, we'll break down our Cardinals vs. Padres prediction and picks for Thursday’s MLB game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
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Cardinals vs. Padres Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Thursday, May 7
It’s been a strong start to the season for the Cardinals. They hold a record of 21-15, have won seven of their last 10 games, and sit just 3.5 games behind the Chicago Cubs for first place in the National League Central.
St. Louis' pitching has been subpar — the rotation ranks 22nd with an xFIP of 4.43, and the bullpen is 25th with an xFIP of 4.69. However, the Cards' offense has carried the load, ranking ninth with a 107 wRC+.
The Padres are off to an equally nice start. They're 22-14, are winners in back-to-back games, and sit just a half game behind the Los Angeles Dodgers for first place in the NL West.
San Diego has accomplished this almost exclusively through the strength of a dominant bullpen. The Padres' pen has the second-best xFIP in the majors (3.43) and has locked down games in which the club's 19th-ranked offense (92 wRC+) has provided minimal run support.
Cardinals vs. Padres Winner Payout, Over/Under – Thursday, May 7
The Padres enter Thursday’s game as home favorites against the Cardinals, returning a 1.56x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Cardinals vs. Padres game on PrizePicks.
- Spread: San Diego Padres -1.5 (2.17x payout)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (1.96x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Cardinals - 2.32x | Padres - 1.56x
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Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Cardinals vs. Padres Prediction on Spread – 5/7/26
Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Cardinals vs. Padres prediction on the spread for Thursday, May 7.
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- Both teams hold impressive against-the-spread (ATS) records to begin 2026. Over a larger sample size in 2025, however, the Padres were better by posting a 90-75 (54.6%) ATS mark.
- The Cardinals, meanwhile, were near the bottom in terms of covering with a 78-84 ATS record.
- Could the Padres' batting order be due for some positive regression? They're in the bottom five with a .276 BABIP, well below the league average of .290.
- Despite their record, the Cardinals have the second-worst run differential in the division.
- San Diego could have a complete pitching edge on Thursday night. The Padres will be rolling out SP Michael King (8.85 K/9, 4.20 xFIP) while the Cardinals aim to get it done with SP Matthew Liberatore (5.75 K/9, 4.92 xFIP).
Cardinals vs. Padres Player Picks, Stats for PrizePicks: 5/7/26
Here are the top Cardinals vs. Padres picks to target on PrizePicks for Thursday, May 7. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include SPs Matthew Liberatore and Michael King.
Cardinals P Matthew Liberatore vs. Padres Projection: 17.5 Outs
- Libby has an ERA of 4.5 but an xERA of 5.8, implying that he's outperforming his expected data and could be in for some regression soon.
- He is walking 3.25 batters per nine innings, his highest walk rate in the last three seasons. That doesn't bode well for going deep into outings, either.
- Liberatore has failed to reach this projection in five of his seven starts thus far in 2026.
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Padres P Michael King vs. Cardinals Projection: 5.5 Strikeouts
- Despite some pretty favorable strikeout matchups, King has only gone over this projection three times.
- The Cardinals are 20th in MLB in K-rate at just 21.7% for the season.
- St. Louis also walks at an above-average 9.4% clip, which could spell some trouble for King (4.08 BB/9, highest of his career).
- King has a 2.95 ERA but a 4.20 xFIP. Additionally, his .253 BABIP is the lowest mark of his MLB tenure.
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