The Milwaukee Bucks (22-30) travel to Oklahoma City to take on the Thunder (42-13) Thursday night in a critical cross-conference clash at Paycom Center.
Desperate to climb out of the Eastern Conference cellar, Milwaukee needs a signature road victory to reignite its playoff hopes, while the dominant Thunder look to protect home court and maintain their stranglehold atop the West. Tip-off is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on Prime Video.
Below, we’ll break down our Bucks vs. Thunder prediction and spread for Thursday night’s tilt. Make your picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
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Bucks vs. Thunder Prediction, Spread
Milwaukee arrives at Paycom Center trying to save a season that is rapidly slipping away. Sitting eight games under .500, the Bucks have struggled to find traction without superstar F Giannis Antetokounmpo, dropping to 22–30. They face a steep challenge as 14.5-point underdogs against a Thunder squad that has been nearly unbeatable at home.
Both teams enter Thursday’s clash dealing with significant absences. Thunder MVP candidate G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is out until after the All-Star break, and F Jalen Williams is questionable after exiting Wednesday’s game with an injury.
Oklahoma City, comfortable at 42–13, has proven its depth even when shorthanded, relying on PF-C Chet Holmgren and the league's top-ranked defense. Despite playing on the second night of a back-to-back, the Thunder have been resilient at Paycom Center, using their pace and spacing to overwhelm opponents. With Gilgeous-Alexander sidelined, the offense will run through Holmgren as OKC looks to sweep the season series.
This is the second and final regular-season meeting between the clubs. Oklahoma City dominated the first matchup on Jan. 21, cruising to a 122–102 victory in Milwaukee behind a 40-point masterpiece from Gilgeous-Alexander. The all-time regular-season series is dead even at 77-77.
Bucks vs. Thunder Over/Under, Spread
The Bucks enter Thursday's game as 14.5-point road underdogs, returning a 5x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Thunder are home favorites with a 1.13x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Oklahoma City Thunder -14.5
- Over/Under: 215.5
- Game Winner Payout: Bucks 5x | Thunder 1.13x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Bucks vs. Thunder Injury Report
Let’s dive into the full Bucks vs. Thunder injury report for Thursday, via NBA.com.
Bucks Injury Report
- F-C Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) - OUT
- F Taurean Prince (neck) - OUT
- G Ryan Rollins (foot) - questionable
Thunder Injury Report
- F Jalen Williams (hamstring) - questionable
- G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (abdomen) - OUT
- Ajay Mitchell (abdomen) - questionable
- Nikola Topic (groin) - OUT
Bucks vs. Thunder Prediction on Spread
Here are some stats to know to help you make your Bucks vs. Thunder prediction on Thursday, February 12.
- The Bucks are just 23-29-0 ATS (44.2%) this season, while the Thunder sit at 27-28-0 ATS (49.1%).
- The Bucks have failed to find rhythm away from home, posting a 12-16-0 ATS record on the road. They have struggled to cover large numbers, going 1-2 ATS in their last three games as double-digit underdogs.
- Oklahoma City has been dominant at home, covering its last two home games when favored by 10+ points.
- The Thunder boast the NBA's best defensive rating (106.1), a nightmare matchup for a Bucks offense averaging just 104.5 points per game without Antetokounmpo.
- Oklahoma City covered easily in the first meeting, winning by 20 points as 9.5-point favorites. The Thunder are 4-1 ATS in their last five matchups against Milwaukee.
Bucks vs. Thunder Picks for PrizePicks Today: Thursday, February 12
Thunder F-C Chet Holmgren vs. Bucks Projection: 28.5 Pts+Rebs
- Holmgren thrives as the primary option when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sits, averaging 20.5 points and 8.5 rebounds (29 combined) in games without the MVP contender this season.
- The second-year center had a pedestrian performance in a blowout victory against Milwaukee earlier this season, where he wasn’t needed to do much (10 points, 7 rebounds) in a 20-point victory.
- Milwaukee's interior defense has cratered without Antetokounmpo, allowing 114.9 PPG and 41.5 RPG.
- The Bucks have allowed opposing power forwards to average 22.4 points and 9.9 rebounds per game, giving Holmgren a high floor for second-chance points and putbacks.
Bucks G Cam Thomas vs. Thunder Projection: 17.5 Points
- Thomas is fresh off a dynamic debut week for Milwaukee — he had a season-high-tying 34 points off the bench on Tuesday, where he commanded a 32% usage rate.
- With Antetokounmpo sidelined, the Bucks are vacating over 30 points and 20 field goal attempts per game, creating a massive scoring void that Thomas has immediately filled as the primary second-unit option.
- The Thunder allow 40.6 points per game to opposing benches, creating a favorable environment for Thomas to feast on a second unit that often plays at a frantic pace.
- Despite Oklahoma City’s elite overall defensive rating, they have struggled to contain shooting guards who average 21.7 PPG. Also, without SGA and potentially Williams in the lineup, there is a chance that they struggle even more in tonight’s matchup.
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