Browns vs. Jaguars Prediction, Spread, NFL Picks for Week 1 – Sunday, September 13

A battle between two teams whose 2025 seasons couldn’t have gone in much different directions takes place when the Cleveland Browns and Jacksonville Jaguars meet on Sunday, September 13 to begin both teams’ seasons. 

Ahead of the Week 1 bout at 1 p.m. ET on CBS, hosting Jacksonville is favored by 7.5 points at EverBank Stadium and returns a 1.21x payout on PrizePicks with a victory. Cleveland is hungry to shock the world in Week 1, but the Jags also eye a hot start. 

Below, we'll break down our Browns vs. Jaguars prediction and picks for Sunday’s NFL game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Browns vs. Jaguars prediction on PrizePicks now.

{{nfl_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Browns vs. Jaguars Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Week 1 – Sunday, September 13

Last season was yet another ugly one for the Cleveland Browns, as they posted a 5-12 record and decided that would be the end of the Kevin Stefanski era. Former Baltimore Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken is now at the helm, hoping to lead an ongoing rebuild into the future.

Keeping it with the theme of change, the Dawg Pound is no longer home for all-world pass rusher Myles Garrett, whom the franchise traded to the Los Angeles Rams. It’s clear that Cleveland is setting the table for 2027 and beyond, but can it be competitive in 2026?

That answer may come down to QB production. Deshaun Watson has won the starting job over Shedeur Sanders, but he’s coming off two Achilles ruptures and hasn’t come remotely close to the play he showcased as a member of the Houston Texans once upon a time. An offense that ranked dead last in dropback EPA per play a season ago (-0.212, per RBSDM) desperately needs improvement. 

Last year’s Jacksonville Jaguars, meanwhile, enjoyed their best season this century. Despite it being HC Liam Coen’s first year in charge, he led the Florida standouts to a 13-4 regular-season record and the club’s first AFC South crown since 2022. 

Defense, ironically, fueled the effort, as Jacksonville finished fifth in points per drive allowed and wasn’t too far behind (seventh) in per-drive yardage. That, paired with producing top-10 marks for both passing and rushing TDs on offense, was more than enough to help the Jags rip off nine wins in their last 10 games before falling to the Buffalo Bills on Wild Card Weekend.

Now playing a first-place schedule and having lost RB Travis Etienne to the New Orleans Saints, the Jaguars’ task is to prove 2025 wasn’t a fluke. Another year in Coen’s system and the round-three add of rookie OL Emmanuel Pregnon could help QB Trevor Lawrence reach one more level.

Browns vs. Jaguars Spread, Over/Under – Sunday, September 13

The Jaguars enter Sunday’s game as 7.5-point home favorites against the Browns, returning a 1.21x payout on PrizePicks if they win outright.

Here are the full payouts for the Browns vs. Jaguars game on PrizePicks.

Make your Browns vs. Jaguars pick on spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks.

Payouts show potential returns on correct Team Picks predictions. A 2x payout returns $200 on a $100 entry. Lower multipliers reflect outcomes users are picking as more likely. Payouts are live as of writing and subject to change.

Browns vs. Jaguars Prediction on Spread – 9/13/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Browns vs. Jaguars prediction on the spread for Sunday, September 13’s game. 

• No team produced a better cover rate as a home favorite than the 2025 Jaguars, who went 4-1 against the spread in such scenarios. 
• The Browns’ 2-5 ATS record as road underdogs, meanwhile, produced the lowest cover rate in such situations (28.6%). 
• Since 2024, Cleveland is 10-14 ATS in conference games and an NFL-worst 4-13 ATS on the road. 
• Jacksonville was on an entirely different platform than Cleveland to close the regular season, ranking third in FTN’s DVOA metric.
• 2025 Cleveland scored on 26.2% of its possessions which, per Sharp Football Analysis, was last. It also ceded a score on 33.7% of opposing series, the fifth-highest split. 
• In addition to being fifth in EPA/play as a defense (-0.079), the Jaguars held their foes to just -0.067 EPA/dropback (fourth) and forced the second-most turnovers in the sport with 31.
• For his career, Lawrence has thrown 14 fewer INTs at home (22) than on the road (36) and boasts a passer rating difference of 89.1 to 83.5. 

Lock in your Browns vs. Jaguars prediction on PrizePicks now.

Browns vs. Jaguars Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 9/13/26

Here are the top Browns vs. Jaguars picks to target on Sunday, September 13. Today’s NFL picks for PrizePicks include QB Deshaun Watson, QB Trevor Lawrence, and WR Parker Washington. 

Browns QB Deshaun Watson vs. Jaguars: 178.5 Pass Yards

• Watson had an ugly preseason in his first reps back since the Achilles injuries, completing only 16 of 27 passes and mustering 162 yards with an INT.
• In his last regular-season action, the former No. 12 overall NFL Draft pick posted career lows in adjusted yards per attempt (5.2), yards per completion (8.2), and intended air yards per throw (7.1).
• According to SumerSports, out of 47 QBs who had 100+ plays in 2024, Watson’s -0.26 EPA/play ranked 44th. 
• Although teams threw against the Jaguars more than anyone else in the league at 64.0% frequency, DC Anthony Campanile’s unit yielded just 6.3 yards per pass (fifth-lowest). 

Add Deshaun Watson to your PrizePicks lineup now.

{{nfl_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence vs. Browns: 234.5 Pass Yards

• Lawrence took his game to new heights in 2025, especially as the season went on. In Weeks 12-18, he averaged 265.1 passing yards per contest and owned a scorching 108.6 passer rating.
• The former Clemson star is more accurate now than ever, evidenced by his bad-throw rate dropping to a personal low of 14.4% this past season.
• Among QBs with 100+ plays last year, Lawrence logged the fourth-most yards (2,982) in pure dropback scenarios. 
• Cleveland sat last in the sport in time per drive last season (2:33), which could spell added opportunities for Lawrence to put up numbers. 

Add Trevor Lawrence to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Jaguars WR Parker Washington vs. Browns: 53.5 Rec Yards

• Washington broke out in year No. 3, setting career highs across the board in targets (95), receptions (58), receiving yards (847), and TDs (5). 
• After missing Week 14 against the Indianapolis Colts, Washington established himself as a favorite option for Lawrence, logging 9+ targets in three of his last four games.
• On top of leading Jacksonville WRs in total EPA in 2025 with 73.53, Washington’s 18.4% target share trailed only Brian Thomas Jr.’s 19.3%.
• Worried about Washington sharing the field with BTJ and Jakobi Meyers? Don’t be. Per NFL Pro, he averaged 3.2 yards per route run after the bye a year ago. Only reigning Offensive Player of the Year Jaxon Smith-Njigba (3.3) and Los Angeles Rams star Puka Nacua (4.0) had a higher mark from Week 9 on. 

Add Parker Washington to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Make Browns vs. Jaguars Picks on PrizePicks

Two teams aim to begin the 2026 season on a positive note, but only one can come away with a win on Sunday. After asserting itself as a contender last year, can Jacksonville continue to flex its muscles into a new campaign? If not, a Cleveland club with a sizable chip on its shoulder could lurk as an upset candidate.

Don’t wait until kickoff — make your Browns vs. Jaguars picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on NFL game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 36 states.

Stay locked in on Playbook for daily NFL predictions, picks, and news all the way through Super Bowl LXI.