Bundesliga first-place club Bayern Munich can essentially clinch their 13th league crown in 14 seasons with a victory over Borussia Dortmund on Saturday on ESPN at 12:30 p.m. ET
The latest chapter of the Der Klassiker rivalry sees Dortmund (15-7-1) entering eight points behind Bayern (19-3-1), with a significant disadvantage in goal differential.
With just 10 Bundesliga matches remaining after this weekend, defeat here would leave Dortmund 11 points back.
Below, we’ll break down our Dortmund vs. Munich prediction and picks for Saturday's Der Klassiker. Make your soccer picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and total goals.
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Borussia Dortmund vs. Bayern Munich Prediction, Preview for February 28, 2026
After being eliminated from the Champions League this week, Borussia Dortmund has nothing to lose.
A draw vs. Bayern Munich does them little good in this historic rivalry, maintaining an eight-point gap in the tables; defeat essentially ends their season. As a result, we could see them going all-out to get three points.
Defenders Niklas Sule and Emre Can are out for Dortmund, while right-back Julian Ryerson is suspended for yellow card accumulation.
The latter is a huge miss for the home side, given he’s assisted 8 goals in his last seven Bundesliga matches. No other Dortmund player has more than 5 assists in the league this season.
Bayern will be without Alphonso Davies at left back due to a hamstring injury; Hiroki Ito and Manuel Neuer will also miss out in defense.
That said, Bayern manager Vincent Kompany will have his full allotment of attackers. Harry Kane is pacing the Bundesliga with 1.36 goals scored per 90 minutes. That's over a half-goal more than any other player in the league, according to FotMob.
Kane's supported by Michael Olise and Luis Diaz, who have combined for 26 assists in league play. And with Jamal Musiala back from injury, the Bavarian side has an attacking quartet that is only 17 goals away from setting a new Bundesliga single-season scoring record.
To win on Saturday, Bayern must breach a Dortmund defense that has conceded just 8 goals in 11 home matches this season.
That may not matter, given the history between these sides. Bayern have not lost a match at Signal Iduna Park since 2019, taking victory in five of the seven visits to Dortmund in that span.
Bayern Munich are overwhelming favorites to win the Bundesliga; entering the match on Saturday, Bayern are returning a 1.01x payout ($100 entry pays out only $101) on PrizePicks Team Picks to claim the title.
Picking Dortmund to win the Bundesliga returns a 22.22x payout ($2,220 on a $100 entry); they'll need to start with a win on Saturday to make it happen.
Borussia Dortmund vs. Bayern Munich Spread, Total Goals, Payouts
Borussia Dortmund enters Saturday’s game as big home underdogs, returning a 4.16x payout ($100 entry pays out $416) on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
Bayern Munich are road favorites with a 1.58x payout ($158 on a $100 entry) if the Bavarian side wins, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Winner Payout: Borussia Dortmund – 4.16x | Tie – 4.16x | Bayern Munich – 1.58x
Spread: Borussia Dortmund +1.5 (1.51x Payout) | Bayern Munich -1.5 (2.43x Payout)
Total Goals: 3.5 (Over – 1.81x)
Both Teams to Score: Yes 1.31x | No 2.77x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
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Borussia Dortmund vs. Bayern Munich Prediction on Total Goals
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your Borussia Dortmund vs. Bayern Munich prediction on total goals for Saturday, February 28, on PrizePicks.
- Bayern Munich allows the fewest shots on target of any team in the Bundesliga, with opponents averaging just 2.48 per 90 minutes.
- Ranked just behind them are Borussia Dortmund, who have allowed only 3.35 shots on target per 90 minutes.
- Dortmund keepers have a 73.7% save rate in Bundesliga play this season, ranking second among all clubs.
- Against Dortmund, opponents have averaged just 0.87 non-penalty xG a this season.
- That xG of opponents ranks only behind Bayern Munich, whose mark of 0.83 leads the league.
- According to WhoScored, Dortmund has held opponents to 8.92 goals below expected this season.
- The reverse fixture of Der Klassiker on Oct. 18, 2026, saw Bayern Munich take a 2-1 victory as they limited Borussia Dortmund to a single shot on target.
Borussia Dortmund vs. Bayern Munich Lineups for February 28, 2026
Here are the projected Borussia Dortmund vs. Bayern Munich lineups for today's Bundesliga match. Lineups are not official.
Borussia Dortmund Lineup vs. Bayern Munich: Projected 3-4-2-1
- Goalkeeper: Gregor Kobel
- Defense: Waldemar Anton, Nico Schlotterbeck, Ramy Bensebaini
- Midfield: Yan Couto, Jobe Bellingham, Felix Nmecha, Daniel Svensson, Marcel Sabitzer, Julian Brandt
- Forward: Serhou Guirassy
Bayern Munich Lineup vs. Borussia Dortmund: Projected 4-2-3-1
- Goalkeeper: Jonas Urbig
- Defense: Konrad Laimer, Dayot Upamecano, Jonathan Tah, Josip Stansic
- Midfield: Joshua Kimmich, Aleksandar Pavlovic, Michael Olise, Jamal Musiala, Luis Diaz
- Forward: Harry Kane
Dortmund vs. Munich Picks for Bundesliga: Saturday, February 28
Here are top Borussia Dortmund vs. Bayern Munich picks to target for Saturday, February 28, on PrizePicks. Today’s soccer picks for PrizePicks are headlined by Harry Kane and Serhou Guirassy.
Bayern ST Harry Kane – 3.5 Shots
- Harry Kane is averaging 4.50 shots and 2.71 shots on target per 90 minutes.
- This is despite averaging just 6.68 penalty area touches per 90 minutes, according to FotMob.
- The English striker ranks second in shots per 90 in the Bundesliga this season, and leads the league in shots on target per 90.
- In the reverse fixture, Kane was held to 2 shots with just 1 finding the target.
- Dortmund allows just 10.87 shots per 90 minutes in league play according to FBRef. Only Bayern Munich allows fewer in the Bundesliga.
- In the four matches against Dortmund where he’s played at least 45 minutes, Kane has averaged 4.25 shots.
- Kane averages 85.57 minutes per start.
Dortmund ST Serhou Guirassy – 17.5 Passes Attempted
- In the first meeting against Bayern this season, Serhou Guirassy attempted 18 passes in 90 minutes.
- The Dortmund striker is averaging 22.58 passes per 90 minutes this season in Bundesliga play.
- At home, where Dortmund tends to get more of a foothold, that number increases to 24.49 passes per 90 minutes.
- In their last four Bundesliga outings, Bayern have faced six starting strikers. They’ve each averaged 23.2 passes per match despite many of them failing to play 70 minutes.
- Guirassy averages 83.7 minutes played per start.
Bayern GK Jonas Urbig – 2.5 Saves
- Bayern Munich has held at least 60% possession in each of the last four games vs. Dortmund.
- That possession has helped Bayern limit the ability for Dortmund to generate attacking activity.
- Three different GK have started for Bayern in those four matches; they have combined to make a total of 5 saves.
- In those matches, Dortmund averaged just 2.75 shots on target.
- Opponents in the Bundesliga this season average just 2.48 shots on target per 90 minutes against Bayern Munich.
- Bayern goalkeepers have made just 35 saves through 23 matches.
Make Your Dortmund vs. Bayern Pick on PrizePicks
Bayern Munich head into Saturday’s match vs. rival Dortmund knowing a victory could give them an insurmountable lead in the Bundesliga title race. But Borussia Dortmund won’t be an easy opponent to defeat, and a victory for the home side could see things get very interesting in the Bundesliga title race.
While Der Klassiker headlines the Matchday 24 slate in Germany, Borussia Dortmund vs. Bayern Munich is just one of the matches where fans can get in on the real-money action on PrizePicks this weekend.
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