First pitch for the Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays game is set for 6:40 p.m. ET on Tuesday, May 5, with the Rays entering as home favorites and returning a 1.72x payout if they win, via PrizePicks.
These two American League East division rivals will get to know each other well by the time this season is over, as this is just the second of 13 games between them this year. The Rays took game one of this current three-game set with a comfortable 5-1 victory at home last night.
Below, we'll break down our Blue Jays vs. Rays prediction and picks for Tuesday’s MLB game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
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Blue Jays vs. Rays Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Tuesday, May 5
It’s been a shaky start to the season for the Blue Jays. They sit at just 16-19, and given the New York Yankees' success, they're already a full 8 games out of the division lead.
They desperately need their offense to quickly round into last year’s form; Toronto ended the season with the fourth-highest wRC+ (+112). That's a far cry from this year’s 21st-ranked 95 mark.
One bright spot is that they do have the league’s best bullpen, which leads baseball in xFIP at 3.17 and in K/9 at a whopping 10.32.
It’s time we all take Kevin Cash and Rays baseball culture seriously. This team is consistently among the bottom of MLB payrolls, yet year after year, they outperform their talent and field a competitive product. This year’s version of the Rays is 22-12, on a four-game win streak, and sitting just 1.5 games behind the Yankees.
In terms of xFIP, Tampa Bay has the 12th-best rotation and 21st-ranked bullpen. By wRC+, the Rays have the 20th-ranked offense. Nothing about them sticks out as elite, but they do the basic things at a high level, such as not striking out, running the bases hard, and playing quality defense.
Blue Jays vs. Rays Winner Payout, Over/Under – Tuesday, May 5
The Rays enter Tuesday’s game as home favorites against the Blue Jays, returning a 1.72x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Blue Jays vs. Rays game on PrizePicks.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (2.56x payout)
- Over/Under: 6.5 (1.69x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Blue Jays - 2.04x | Rays - 1.72x
Play the Blue Jays vs. Rays spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Blue Jays vs. Rays Prediction on Spread – 5/5/26
Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Blue Jays vs. Rays prediction on the spread for Tuesday, May 5.
Lock in your Blue Jays vs. Rays prediction on PrizePicks before the line moves.
- The Rays have been outstanding against the spread (ATS), owning a run line record of 21-13 (61.8%), fourth-best in MLB.
- The Blue Jays, meanwhile, have a brutal 14-21 ATS mark that's sixth-worst in baseball.
- Toronto has a below-average wRC+ of 90 on the road, 10 points lower than its wRC+ at home.
- The Blue Jays' pen has been dominant all season, but over the last week, the Rays' pen has caught up with an xFIP of just 3.29 (sixth).
- It’s rare that a pitcher as good as Kevin Gausman (3.37 xFIP) can lose the SP production battle entering a game, but that's the case tonight as Drew Rasmussen (2.89 xFIP) toes the slab for Tampa Bay.
Blue Jays vs. Rays Player Picks, Stats for PrizePicks: 5/5/26
Here are the top Blue Jays vs. Rays picks to target on PrizePicks for Tuesday, May 5. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include SPs Kevin Gausman and Drew Rasmussen.
Blue Jays P Kevin Gausman vs. Rays Projection: 1.5 Walks Allowed
- Tampa Bay's 8.7% walk rate as a team sits 23rd in the league.
- Gausman is walking just 1.77 batters per 9 innings, the lowest walk rate he's had in his last four seasons.
- Gausman has walked just five of these Rays hitters in 74 combined plate appearances, good for a 6.8% mark.
- He's logged fewer than 1.5 walks in four of his seven starts this season (57.1%).
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Rays P Drew Rasmussen vs. Blue Jays Projection: 89.5 Pitches Thrown
- Rasmussen has been carrying the load for the Rays recently, throwing 91 and 98 pitches in back-to-back starts.
- Rays SP Nick Martinez threw just 71 pitches across 5 innings of work last night, so the Rays might just need some length from Rasmussen after using five guys out of their pen.
- The Blue Jays' offense has the third-lowest walk rate in the MLB at just 7.6%. They aren’t the type of team to grind at-bats against Rasmussen and potentially knock him out of the game early.
- During his Rays tenure, Rasmussen has typically performed better at home, posting a lower xFIP in four of his five seasons with the ballclub when playing in Tampa.
Add Drew Rasmussen to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Make Blue Jays vs. Rays Picks on PrizePicks
Don’t let the NBA Conference semifinals take all your attention, because we have a sweet 15-game MLB slate on tap tonight. Blue Jays vs. Rays is just one of many ways for you to get all your action here on PrizePicks.
Don’t wait until lock — make your Blue Jays vs. Rays picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
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