Best NFL Week 7 Survivor Picks: Do We Dare Trust the Jets?

The 2026 bloodbath in survivor pools continued last weeks. The L.A. Rams and Indianapolis Colts suffered embarrassing defeats as two of the most popular picks on the board, but the rest of the chalk hit. You were rewarded for going against the grain.

Below, we’ll highlight the best Week 7 survivor picks for your win-or-go-home pools and walk through some strategies to get you to Week 8. 

According to SurvivorGrid, the Houston Texans are the top expected value pick of the week. They're the largest favorite on the board (10.5 points), according to PrizePicks. With no other team more than a touchdown favorite, a resurgent Houston squad may be a popular choice.

After you make your NFL Survivor Pool picks this week, you can run your picks on PrizePicks. With players, winners, and spreads on the board — plus endless ways to combine them — there’s never been a better time to Run Your Game.

Make NFL Week 7 picks on PrizePicks now — including teams to win!

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NFL Survivor Pool Week 7 Picks & Strategy

At this point, just simply getting off the single most popular pick since Week 2 has been a must for survival. It's crazy we continue to see such large upsets at home — but none larger than the Rams as 12.5-point favorites.

If you're still in it, you're probably up against strong players. They might have been on the 49ers or Patriots last week and prioritized getting different.

Some squads are down to just three or four home games left total, and the scarcity of elite survivor spots is the reason why I like the two I do this week.

Best NFL Week 7 Survivor Picks: Two Teams to Target

Here are the top two teams to target for your Week 7 survivor picks.

Also listed are the winner payouts, spreads, and totals for each game via PrizePicks, where you can make your NFL picks and earn money if you’re right!

Make your Week 7 NFL picks on PrizePicks — including winners and spreads!

Payouts represent real-money earnings if a pick wins on PrizePicks. For example, a 2x represents a $100 entry on a correct pick that pays out $200.

Best Week 7 Survivor Pick: Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

That sound of shrieking and children screaming and crying you hear is the idea of, after six weeks of brutal work (and potentially a re-buy) to make it this far, trusting the New York Jets to win a football game. It has to be done.

The 0-5 Miami Dolphins are horrific. According to nfelo, they're 31st in offensive EPA/play, and they're 29th on defense. They've actually had closer calls, like a late one-possession game against the Chiefs and against-the-spread (ATS) covers against the Vikings and Bengals, than those metrics indicate they would.

My warnings against the Patriots last week were somewhat incorrect, but this Jets team is getting better by the week.

They're seventh in sack rate (8.13%), per TeamRankings, as first-round EDGE David Bailey wreaks havoc, and they're getting real production out of RB Braelon Allen and WR Omar Cooper Jr. to support WR Garrett Wilson on offense.

Don't look now, but QB Geno Smith is a manageable 22nd in EPA/play (+0.07), too. He looks much more like the Seahawks edition of himself than the 2025 Raiders edition.

Sure, the Jets aren't great, but if they're 4.5-point home favorites against the worst team in football, they're basically a pick 'em or worse against everyone else. SurvivorGrid has them as one of six teams with 0 expected value beyond this week.

I'm going to try and get one over on the field with a team building momentum — and dodge the Houston chalk in the process.

Pick the Jets to win vs. the Dolphins on PrizePicks now!

Best Week 7 Survivor Pick: Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings

It's quite possible that many of you don't have the Vikings if you streamed them in Week 4 against the Dolphins, so I wanted to make them the second choice on that principle alone.

Minnesota exits the bye at 5-0, and they're one of the best teams in the NFL. They're first by a mile in defensive EPA/play (-0.29) with 10 total takeaways. They're second in pass rush win rate and sixth in run stuff rate, according to ESPN. They remind me of the stable product we got with the 2025 Seahawks.

That's despite QB Kyler Murray not really finding his groove in an offense that ranks 28th in EPA/play, but the bye could have helped. WR Jordan Addison and RB Jordan Mason seem to be returning from injury as well.

A massive product of what went wrong with Colts' offense last week was TE Tyler Warren (groin) being a surprise inactive. He's a do-it-all guy all over the formation, and I probably would have removed them from Friday's survivor article on his presence alone. He's not trending upward to play in Week 7.

The Colts' defense is dreadful, ranking 25th or worse in EPA/play allowed, pass rush win rate, and run stuff win rate. They just ran their GM out of town. Minnesota stops the run so well, and we saw the result of QB Daniel Jones having the game on his shoulders a week ago.

I'm personally using the Jets in all spots I'm alive, but this works if you're just out on the Jets.

Pick the Vikings to win vs. the Colts on PrizePicks now.

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Week 7 Survivor Picks to Avoid

Even if you’re not rolling with the picks above, avoid these teams when making your survivor pool pick in Week 7.

These teams are favored on the spread on PrizePicks but may be riskier than they seem, making them not worth your survivor entry.

Survivor Pick to Avoid: New York Giants at Houston Texans

I actually feel differently about the Texans than I do the Rams a week ago. I mentioned the Rams' defense was struggling, and their offense followed suit. There's nothing I don't like about Houston this weekend except their popularity.

DeMeco Ryans took back defensive play-calling duties in the last two weeks, and Houston's been much better. The Texans are down to 27th in pure passing yards per game allowed (246.0) after early-season shootouts, and a struggling S Reed Blankenship's injury might be a blessing in disguise.

QB J.J. McCarthy lit up the Saints in garbage time, but Houston's pass rush — perhaps due to ascend from 24th in win rate — will be champing at the bit to get after the mistake-prone signal-caller in his first road start.

Plus, the Giants' run game is completely gone unless RB Cam Skattebo returns to form a week after his benching.

New York is 27th in run defense on an EPA/play basis. This could be the best RB Woody Marks game of the season in a comfortable win for a team whose season is right back in control if it can improve to 3-5. Houston is the most popular square on the board, though, and that's been a death sentence recently.

I'll save the Texans' elite front seven for a potential matchup with a backup QB (or the Titans in Week 18) down the road.

Pick the Texans vs. the Giants on PrizePicks now!

Survivor Pick to Avoid: Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles

If you've watched the Dallas Cowboys in the last two weeks, you're probably not gushing to play them in survivor, but a contrarian dart is getting way too cute this week. In a road, divisional, prime-time game against a backup QB, that's like four traps for a favored team baked into one spot.

Plus, we know this passing game is struggling; QB Dak Prescott has tossed twice as many picks (4) as TDs in matchups with Tampa Bay and Green Bay secondaries that aren't exactly shutting anyone else down. RB Javonte Williams has vanished to average just 56.0 scrimmage yards per game in this span.

If Dallas' offense is the problem, I know I'm going to want this team down the road. It's an elite home squad, going 23-13-1 straight up at Jerry World since the start of 2022, and America's Team hosts the Cardinals, Giants, Eagles, and Titans in four of its six remaining home games.

If I get to use Dallas once, I want it to be when it's firing on all cylinders against some poor backup that can't keep pace. That could be QB Tanner McKee at home a few weeks from now, but it may not happen on Monday night.

Pick the Cowboys vs. the Eagles on PrizePicks now! 

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Best Week 7 Survivor Pick: New York Jets

Should I trust the New York Jets on any day ending in "y"? Probably not.

But at a projected pick rate of just 12.1%, according to SurvivorGrid, I've got a shot to get a real leg up on my competitors by getting through Week 7 with a team I'm going to target multiple times and likely not consider during the rest of 2026.

As things get ugly down the road, I get to keep one "solid" team they won't have.

If you rode with me last week, being patient and not using San Francisco in Week 2 allowed us to sneak through to Week 7. I want to continuously pivot off these spots — as risky as it is to get burned fading the most logical choice.

Make NFL Week 7 Picks on PrizePicks

One week at a time is the key. Don’t lose your NFL survivor pool in Week 7! Consider riding with the Jets or Vikings as modest favorites this week — and the best picks on the board.

Don’t wait until kickoff to lock in your NFL predictions — make picks on NFL winners on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Just pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can predict NFL game winners, spreads, over/unders, and award futures, now available in 36 states — or combine them with players for even higher payouts. 

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