Week 6 of the NFL season ends with a bang as two intriguing teams go head-to-head in primetime action. Monday Night Football features Bears vs. Commanders matchup at 8:15 p.m. ET on ABC, which might have playoff implications down the road between two up-and-coming QBs.
With both sides coming off victories, the Bears sit at 2-2 and Commanders at 3-2. There’s no shortage of talent in this one, especially at QB with Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels — the No. 1 and No. 2 draft picks in 2024.
Below, we’ll dive into a Bears vs. Commanders prediction and same-game Monday Night Football picks for tonight's NFC matchup. With PrizePicks, you can cash in on your MNF picks when you're right!
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Bears vs. Commanders Prediction, Preview
Here are some stats to know to get you set for Bears vs. Commanders on Monday Night Football tonight, including insights on our Bears vs. Commanders prediction.
- The Bears and Commanders have met 54 times dating back to 1932, with Washington owning a narrow 28-25-1 series advantage.
- D.C.’s comeback was constructed via a dominant stretch from 1989-2016. During that 15-game span, they went 13-2 with two separate streaks of at least six wins.
- The Commanders have won four straight games on Monday Night Football, dating back to 2020 when they were the Redskins, per Statmuse.
- Williams and Daniels squared off just under a year ago on October 27, 2024 — an 18-15 Commanders win.
Chicago Bears Preview
- The Bears have finished dead last in the NFC North in three straight seasons, owning a 15-36 record from 2022-2024.
- After dropping games in Weeks 1 and 2 of this year, Chicago ripped off a pair of wins to get back to an even .500 before its Week 5 bye.
- Year one with Ben Johnson as head coach remains a work in progress. The Bears’ offense is 16th in points per drive, but defensive coordinator Dennis Allen’s unit is bottom-five in the same category.
- The Bears are 22nd in offensive EPA, per Sumer Sports, which is a minor improvement from 26th in 2024 in the second year with Williams under-center.
- Most notably, the Bears have made improvements in protecting Williams, as their sack percentagae has been cut in half year over years — from a league-worst 10% to 4.55% in 2025 — ranking 10th in the NFL.
- Since 2020, Chicago’s 21-43 record against NFC teams is football’s fourth-worst.
Washington Commanders Preview
- After a surprise 12-5 campaign and a run to the NFC championship game, the Commanders have alternated wins and losses to open this season.
- The team is 2-1 in games Daniels starts, emphasizing the importance of QB1’s health.
- Though they get Daniels back, he'll be without WR Terry McLaurin, WR Noah Brown, and WR Deebo Samuel is banged up, though. he is expected to play.
- Head coach Dan Quinn’s group boasts a relatively balanced attack, ranking seventh in scoring offense and ninth in scoring defense.
- After ranking fourth in total offensive EPA in 2024, the Commanders have come back down to earth a bit, ranking eighth in the NFL.
- However, their success rate is still top five in the NFL, at 47.7%.
- Despite that, the Commanders are converting third downs at just a 32.69% clip, which ranks 30th. Daniels' return should improve that.
- Washington is 13-8 as a home favorite over the last five years. That 69.1 win percentage is 23rd in the NFL.
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Bears vs. Commanders Monday Night Football Picks for PrizePicks
Here are three Bears vs. Commanders picks for Monday Night Football stand out. Same-game PrizePicks projections for QBs Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels, as well as RB D’Andre Swift, are worth considering.
Bears QB Caleb Williams Projection: 234.5 Pass Yards
- Whether it's experience or new coach Ben Johnson, the data shows that Williams has made drastic improvements in Year 2.
- Williams averages 231.8 passing yards per game as a sophomore, though he’s only 215 pass yards one time in four contests.
- His one game with more than 215 passing yards came against the Cowboys' league-worst pass defense.
- In 2024’s Week 8 loss to Washington, Williams threw for 131 yards and ran for another 47. That marked his fourth-lowest passing total but one of his better rushing efforts on the year.
- Some underlying metrics aren’t kind to Williams. Per FantasyPros, he’s 34th in off-target rate and 35th in catchable target rate.
- Week 6 sees Williams face a middle-of-the-pack Commanders defense against QBs, which ranks 18th in fantasy points yielded.
Bears RB D’Andre Swift Projection: 69.5 Rush+Receiving Yards
- Swift is averaging at least 15 touches per game for the third year in a row, yet his yards per touch (3.9) is a career-low figure.
- He's been difficult to take off the field, as his run blocking is a key for keeping Caleb Williams clean in the pocket. His 84.9 run blocking grade via PFF is fourth best among RBs.
- Swift's struggles as a rusher can be attributed to a lack of elusiveness. Swift notches just 1.8 yards before contact per attempt and has just 7 missed tackles forced, per Pro Football Focus.
- Despite the aforementioned loss, Swift was great versus Washington last season. His 129 rushing yards marked his most of the year by 36 (his 93-yard performance in Week 4 takes second).
- The Commanders’ defense allows the fourth-lowest yards per carry average (3.41) to opposing rushers. It’s 14th in receiving yards given up to RBs.
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Commanders QB Jayden Daniels Projection: 272.5 Pass+Rush Yards
- Daniels racked up 262.3 all-purpose yards per week in his Rookie of the Year-winning 2024 campaign. That number is remarkably similar at 262.6 thus far in 2025.
- Per nfelo, Washington’s offense ranks 10th in pass rate over expected (+0.4%) entering MNF.
- When Daniels faced the Bears as a rookie, his 326 passing yards were more than Chicago gained as an entire team (307). He added 52 yards on the ground for good measure.
- Daniels scrambles at the highest rate in the NFL (20.5%, via NFL Pro), and Chicago’s defense allows the second-highest yardage clip per scramble attempt (11.5).
- Only four teams — the Saints, Ravens, Dolphins and Cowboys — allow more fantasy points per game to QBs than the Bears’ 19.4.
- Against QBs that are top 10 in EPA/play, per SumerSports, the Bears are surrendering 313 pass yards per game.
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