When the Bills vs. Falcons matchup kicks off on Monday Night Football at 8:15 p.m. ET tonight, it will be a battle of arguably two of the top-five running backs in the NFL: James Cook and Bijan Robinson.
QBs Josh Allen and Michael Penix Jr. are the signal-callers and lead the offenses, but make no mistake: Cook and Robinson are the engines that make these two squads go and could each have big statistical nights.
The Bills and Falcons are teams in different spots, with the Bills coming off their first loss of the season to the New England Patriots last week but still clealry in the top tier of the NFL hierarchy, while the Falcons are 2-2 and still have plenty of things to figure out on both sides of the football. However, on paper, this a fun matchup that has plenty of offensive explosion potential and we’ll get to look at some of the key players who could be involved.
With Monday’s showdown approaching, we’ll take a closer look at the Bills vs. Falcons matchup, examine key PrizePicks projections and picks, and identify the top players poised to make an impact.
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Bills vs. Falcons Predictions, Picks
With both teams eager to make a statement, let’s take a closer look at the Bills vs. Falcons matchup, breaking down key stats, player trends, and PrizePicks projections to guide your picks for Monday night’s showdown.
Buffalo Bills Preview vs. Falcons
Buffalo’s offense has been electric so far in 2025, averaging 30.6 points per game and ranking first in the NFL in total yardage. Josh Allen is spreading the ball effectively, and Cook is already up to 450 rushing yards on the season.
However, the Bills are also showing cracks, especially on defense. Safety Damar Hamlin and LB Matt Milano have both been ruled out, weakening a secondary that’s already taken hits. Buffalo’s last game also exposed discipline issues, where 11 penalties and three turnovers cost them in a 23-20 loss to the Patriots.
Still, Buffalo’s offense is among the more balanced units in 2025, ranking second with 154.4 rushing yards per game and sitting just outside the top-10 in passing. If they can weather the defensive injuries, they should still be a heavy threat in this one.
Atlanta Falcons Preview vs. Bills
Atlanta’s defense is quietly building respect, ranking top five in total yards allowed and second in points allowed per game in 2025. Their pass defense, in particular, has tightened up, giving up just 139.5 passing yards per game on average.
On offense, the Falcons have been uneven. Through their first five games, they’ve struggled to find consistency, putting pressure on their quarterback and supporting cast to generate big plays. However, their biggest strength has been Buffalo’s worst weakness: the Falcons rank fourth in the NFL with 136.5 rushing yards per game, while the Bills allow 145.6 rushing yards per game, third-worst, and have struggled to stop opposing RBs.
They may also get some reinforcement this week, as CB A.J. Terrell is expected to return, bolstering a secondary that’s already been effective.
If Atlanta can slow Buffalo’s running game and force Allen to beat them through the air while leaning on their defense, they’ll have a real chance to keep this Monday night matchup close.
Bills vs. Falcons Same-Game Picks for PrizePicks
Here are two Bills vs. Falcons same-game player picks for Week 5, highlighting projections to watch for Josh Allen and Bijan Robinson.
You can choose More or Less on these projections on PrizePicks, along with many others, to win real money this NFL season.
Falcons RB Bijan Robinson Projections vs. Bills: 15.5 Yards Longest Rush
Given that the Bills’ worst defensive quality is stopping the run, this is a perfect projection with which to kick things off. The way that Robinson is able to just bounce off defenders always gives him a chance to break a big play.
Robinson has not been the most explosive this season, going 2-2 on this projection. However, the matchup vs. Buffalo is a juicy one for him.
The Bills have struggled to stop explosive runs, giving up a league-high 20.6% Explosive Rush Rate, per FTN’s Statshub. With the added issues of missing key run-stoppers Milano and DT T.J. Sanders, Robinson could be able to kick some doors down and rip off chunk runs.
Bills QB Josh Allen Projections vs. Falcons: 34.5 Rushing Yards
I’m not sure that anyone saw coming an Atlanta Falcons defense that would be borderline dominant through the first quarter of the season. The Falcons have been able to slow teams down, with an NFL-best 244 yards per game allowed.
However, if there’s one thing is that is truly an unstoppable force versus the Falcons’ immovable object, it might be Josh Allen, specifically, his legs.
Allen has been a force running the football throughout his career, especially when teams bring pressure and blanket his receivers. The Falcons are allowing 135 passing yards per game, fewest in the league, so Allen might have to tuck it and run a bunch tonight. He has surpassed this number in three of his past four primetime games.
The defending NFL MVP is averaging eight carries per game this season, and with the Falcons giving up an average of six yards per carry to QBs, Allen might zoom over this projection.
Make Bills vs. Falcons Picks on PrizePicks
As the Bills head to Atlanta, both teams are looking to make a statement and keep pace in their conferences.
Buffalo’s offense has shown flashes of its old dominance behind Josh Allen, but the turnovers and slow starts have been hard to ignore. On the other side, Atlanta’s defense has quietly turned heads, ranking near the top of the league in both points and yards allowed. It’s strength vs. strength, and something has to give.
It’s a great week to jump into the action on PrizePicks, where you can make your Bills vs. Falcons picks and predictions for Monday’s slate.
Scroll through the board, lock in your favorite More or Less projections, and build a lineup for a shot at real cash this weekend.
