The UFC featherweight division is poised for redemption at UFC 325 on Paramount+ as two-time champion Alexander Volkanovski prepares to defend his throne against the relentless Brazilian contender Diego Lopes.
Volkanovski vs. Lopes is a high-stakes featherweight rematch that promises fireworks in front of a roaring Sydney, Australia, crowd.
We'll take a look at both paths to victory in the Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes fight headlining UFC 325.
Can the 37-year-old Australian legend prove his first victory over Lopes was no fluke, or will the surging finisher capitalize on Volkanovski's advancing age and snatch the belt on enemy soil at UFC 325?
Find our Volkanovski vs. Lopes prediction and UFC 325 expert pick for Saturday's main event title fight below, including PrizePicks UFC picks and key stats for this UFC featherweight championship matchup.
You can predict UFC winners on PrizePicks Team Picks and earn money if you're right, including on Volkanovski vs. Lopes, now available in 30 states.
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Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes Prediction, UFC 325 Main Event Preview
Alexander Volkanovski arrives at UFC 325 as a two-time featherweight champion and one of the sport's most decorated strikers, carrying an elite resume built on precision striking and championship-level consistency.
'The Great' has faced the best 145‑pounders in the sport, showcasing his technical wrestling and suffocating control that have defined his championship reign.
Volkanovski's ability to impose his will through calculated striking and defensive wrestling creates a fortress-like game plan that neutralizes opponents' strengths. Look for Volkanovski to lean on his experience and technical superiority to dictate the fight from the opening bell.
Diego Lopes enters as a relentless finisher chasing the biggest opportunity of his career at UFC 325 in a rematch vs. Volk.
The Brazilian challenger has impressed with explosive striking combinations and devastating finishing power, carving through opponents with a confident, aggressive style that has captivated UFC fans.
However, Lopes faces the final boss as he takes on the two-time champion, as he looks to finally dethrone the future UFC Hall of Famer.
If he can maintain distance, establish his aggressive striking rhythm, and capitalize on openings created by forward pressure, he could leave with the biggest win of his career and undisputed featherweight gold around his waist.
UFC 325: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes Payouts
The UFC featherweight champ Alexander Volkanovski enters this title defense at UFC 325as the favorite, returning a 1.63x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if he wins.
Diego Lopes comes into his second crack at UFC gold as the underdog with a 2.17x payout if he wins, via PrizePicks Team Picks
Fight Game Winner Payout: Alexander Volkanovski 1.63x ($100 pays out $163) | Diego Lopes 2.17x
The fans are split nearly 50/50 on whether this five-round fight will go the distance. As of writing, there's a 1.85x payout on the fight to go the distance, and 1.81x against it
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes Prediction for UFC 325 Main Event
Here are some UFC stats to help you make your Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes in the UFC Featherweight title fight at UFC 325 on Paramount+.
- Volkanovski's takedown defense (70% career TDD) should help him dictate the fight's pace and neutralize Lopes' aggressive striking entries.
- 'The Great' has extensive five‑round championship experience against elite competition, including multiple defenses, including a masterclass victory over Lopes, but also wins against Max Holloway, Brian Ortega, and Yair Rodriguez.
- The 14‑year MMA veteran averages 6.18 significant strikes landed per minute with elite striking accuracy (56%).
- Diego Lopes is six years younger than Volkanovski and appears to be entering his physical prime, while the champion is in the later stages of his career at 37.
- Lopes has finished 67% of his UFC wins, including his recent spinning elbow knockout of Jean Silva, and averages 4.10 significant strikes landed per minute with explosive power in every exchange.
Volkanovski vs. Lopes Start Time, How to Watch UFC 325
Date: Saturday, January 31, 2026
Time: Main Card – 9 p.m. ET | Volkanovski vs. Lopes Start Time – 11:30 p.m. ET (estimate)
Location: Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
TV: Paramount+
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes Tale of the Tape
Here are the key stats to know for Volkanovski vs. Lopes in the UFC 325 main event.
Alexander Volkanovski Stats for UFC 325
Overall Record: 27-4
UFC Record: 14-3
Last 5 Fights: 4-1
Height: 5’6"
Reach: 71”
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 6.18
Takedowns Landed Per 15 Minutes: 1.67
Last Fight: Win vs. Diego Lopes by Decision
Finishes: 16 (13 KO/TKO/3 SUB)
Diego Lopes Stats for UFC 325
Overall Record: 27-7
UFC Record: 9-5
Last 5 Fights: 4-1
Height: 5’11"
Reach: 72”
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.10
Takedowns Landed Per 15 Minutes: 0.79
Last Fight: Win vs. Jean Silva by KO/TKO in Round 2
Finishes: 23 (11 KO/TKO/12 SUB)
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Volkanovski vs. Lopes Expert Pick for UFC 325 Main Event
Here is our UFC 325 expert pick for Volkanovski vs. Lopes featherweight title fight. All picks are available via PrizePicks MMA board.
Volkanovski vs. Lopes Pick: 22.5 Minutes (Fight Time)
- Despite his explosive finishing style, Lopes has seen the scorecards or the championship rounds in 3 of his last 4 UFC fights, including his grueling 25-minute unanimous decision loss to Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 314 in April 2025.
- Alexander Volkanovski has proven his championship endurance over his career, with an average fight time of 16:21.
- Since joining the UFC in May 2023, Lopes' average fight time has trended upward as his competition level rose, while Volkanovski reached the fifth round in six of his last 10 fights.
- Volkanovski is no stranger to five-round wars — his first meeting with Lopes went the full 25 minutes, with the champion outlanding the challenger 158 to 63 in significant strikes.
Make Your Volkanovski vs. Lopes Picks on PrizePicks
The main event featherweight title fight, pits the reigning and defending champion Alexander Volkanovski against rising contender Diego Lopes in a rematch that will certainly keep UFC fans on the edge of their seats.
The UFC 325 main event Volkanovski vs. Lopes will bring us an exciting fight, broadcast on Paramount+, live from Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney, Australia, this Saturday, January 31.
You can win real money by locking in your UFC 325 predictions on PrizePicks — from the first fight of the night all the way to the featherweight title fight. Pick your fighters, and win cash if you're right.
You can also predict winners and the method of victory in every UFC fight on PrizePicks Team Picks, now available in 30 states.
Keep it locked in here with PrizePicks and the Playbook for continued UFC picks, predictions, and news.
