Aces vs. Valkyries Prediction, Spread, WNBA Playoffs Picks for Sunday, October 4

The WNBA Semifinals between the Las Vegas Aces and Golden State Valkyries begins on Sunday, October 4, at 4:00 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock. The Aces enter as 1.5-point favorites and offer a 1.78x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks.

The Aces outlasted the Indiana Fever in the opening round, securing a 94-83 win in Game 3 to advance. Meanwhile, the Valkyries were also taken to the brink of elimination by the Dallas Wings but ultimately came away with a 77-73 victory in a decisive Game 3. 

Below, we'll break down our Aces vs. Valkyries prediction and picks for Sunday's WNBA playoff game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Aces vs. Valkyries prediction and picks on PrizePicks now.

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Aces vs. Valkyries Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for WNBA Playoffs – Sunday, October 4

It’s safe to say the Aces have been battle-tested in recent WNBA playoff games. After all, Las Vegas has captured a WNBA title in three of the last four seasons, including sweeping the Phoenix Mercury to win the 2025 WNBA Finals.

As a result, the Aces didn’t blink in a winner-take-all Game 3 against the Fever in their opening-round series. Las Vegas held Indiana to just 38.5% shooting from the floor, led by C A’ja Wilson, who scored a game-high 36 points and grabbed 10 rebounds in the series-deciding contest.

The Aces enter Game 1 as slight favorites after winning all three regular-season matchups against the Valkyries. Las Vegas will have to defend the 3-point line well if it wants to start the series on the right foot. The Valkyries lead all playoff teams with a 42.4% shooting clip from beyond the arc.

Meanwhile, the Valkyries have already enjoyed more postseason success than they did in their first playoff appearance in 2025, as they were swept by the Minnesota Lynx in their first series.

In a 77-73 Game 3 win against the Wings, the Valkyries showcased the blueprint for what has made the franchise successful this season. Golden State played stellar defense down the stretch and held Dallas to 31.2% shooting from beyond the arc. The Valkyries even held Wings star G Paige Bueckers to a 3-of-14 shooting performance in the series-clinching contest.

The Valkyries will certainly need to be at the top of their game throughout the semifinal series against the Aces. Las Vegas boasted a talented trio of Wilson, G Jackie Young, and G Chelsea Gray, who all averaged at least 15.7 PPG in the opening round. 

Aces vs. Valkyries Spread, Over/Under for WNBA Playoffs Today – Sunday, October 4

The Aces enter Sunday’s game as 1.5-point road favorites against the Valkyries, returning a 1.78x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Aces vs. Valkyries game on PrizePicks.

Make your Aces vs. Valkyries prediction on the winner on PrizePicks.

PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Aces vs. Valkyries Injury Report for Sunday, October 4

Let’s dive into the full Aces vs. Valkyries injury report for Sunday, via WNBA.com.

Las Vegas Aces Injury Report 

• G Dana Evans (knee) – OUT
• F Stephanie Talbot (leg) – Questionable

Golden State Valkyries Injury Report

• No injuries reported

Aces vs. Valkyries Prediction on Winner for WNBA Playoffs – 10/4/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Aces vs. Valkyries prediction on the winner for Sunday, October 4.

• The Aces were 3-0 against the spread when facing the Valkyries during the regular season and won those three matchups by an average margin of +11.3 points per game.
• Las Vegas is the WNBA’s highest-scoring team throughout the playoffs, averaging 95.0 points per game and shooting a league-high 49.2% from the field. 
• Despite allowing a league-low 75.1 PPG during the regular season, the Valkyries surrendered 87.0 PPG and a 47.0% shooting clip against the Dallas Wings in their first-round playoff series.
• In three postseason contests, the Aces have excelled from beyond the arc, shooting 38.8% (fourth among playoff teams). The Valkyries allowed the Wings to shoot 39.0% on 3-pointers in their first-round series.
• On May 31, the Aces defeated the Valkyries 91-81 in their lone matchup at the Chase Center. 
• The Aces are 5-2 against the Valkyries in seven all-time meetings and have covered the spread in five of those contests. 

Lock in your Aces vs. Valkyries prediction on PrizePicks now!

Aces vs. Valkyries Picks, Player Stats for WNBA Playoffs on PrizePicks: 10/4/26

Here are the top Aces vs. Valkyries picks to target on Sunday, October 4. Today’s WNBA picks for PrizePicks include A’ja Wilson and Gabby Williams.

Aces C A’ja Wilson vs. Valkyries: 35.5 Pts + Rebs

• Wilson has averaged 32.0 PPG and 11.7 RPG over three games in the 2026 playoffs.
• According to databallr, Wilson has secured 23.3% of her available defensive rebounds this season, ranking in the 96th percentile.
• Wilson has excelled at shooting from the short mid-range area, connecting on 47.7% of those attempts (82nd percentile).
• The Valkyries allowed Wilson to average 25.0 PPG and 12.7 RPG over three regular-season matchups. 

Add A'ja Wilson + Aces to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Valkyries F Gabby Williams vs. Aces: 22.5 Pts + Rebs

• Williams is averaging 25.0 PPG and 4.3 RPG in three games this postseason.
• The Valkyries forward scores 9.0 points per 100 offensive possessions on unassisted shot attempts, which ranks in the 90th percentile.
• Williams sports a high 29.1% usage rate (97th percentile), providing plenty of opportunity to score.
• The former first-round pick has averaged 19.0 PPG and 3.7 RPG in three regular-season games vs. the Valkyries.

Add Gabby Williams + Valkyries to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Make Aces vs. Valkyries Picks on PrizePicks

The Aces have certainly had the Valkyries’ number in their short history, including a 3-0 record during the regular season. As the two teams meet in the WNBA Semifinals, Las Vegas aims to keep that success going in this best-of-five series.

Don’t wait until tip-off — make your Aces vs. Valkyries picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on WNBA game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 36 states.

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