Aces vs. Liberty Prediction, Spread, WNBA Picks for Commissioner's Cup Final

The Las Vegas Aces vs. New York Liberty Commissioner's Cup Final game is set to tip off at 7:00 p.m. ET on Tuesday, June 30, televised on Prime Video. According to PrizePicks Team Picks, the Liberty enter as 6.5-point favorites on the spread, returning a 1.4x payout if they win.

The Commissioner’s Cup championship is a rematch of the 2023 WNBA Finals, which was won by the Aces in four games. 

MVP favorite C A’ja Wilson will miss her first game of the season tonight after leaving Sunday’s game against the Sky with an ankle injury. The Aces star leads the league in scoring at 25.7 points per game (PPG).

The Liberty (12-8) return home after a dreadful 1-3 road trip out west, including the lone win at Las Vegas last Tuesday. The Aces (14-5) bounced back from that 87-76 defeat with consecutive triumphs over the Wings and Sky.

Below, we'll break down our Aces vs. Liberty prediction and picks for Tuesday’s WNBA Commissioner's Cup Final game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Aces vs. Liberty prediction on PrizePicks now.

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Aces vs. Liberty Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Tuesday, June 30

New York won eight consecutive games before getting tripped up at home by Washington on June 19 as 12.5-point favorites. The Liberty traveled west and squandered a 17-point lead in a buzzer-beating loss to the Sparks to tip off the four-game road trip.

However, the 2024 WNBA champions bounced back with a convincing 87-76 victory at Las Vegas as 2.5-point underdogs on June 23. The Liberty knocked down 13 treys while holding the Aces to 8 free throw attempts, tied for their fewest of the season.

New York dropped the final two games of the swing at Seattle (99-88) and Golden State (76-67), marking the second time in 2026 it's gone through a 1-4 slump.

The Aces rebounded nicely from the Liberty loss to knock off the Wings, 99-84, avenging a pair of defeats to Dallas. Las Vegas held off Chicago on Sunday, 107-99, as the Aces drilled 58 of 70 free throw tries in the past two wins.

Last season, the Aces lost three of their four games with Wilson sidelined.

Aces vs. Liberty Spread, Over/Under – Tuesday, June 30

The Liberty enter Tuesday’s game as 6.5-point home favorites against the Aces, returning a 2.85x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Aces vs. Liberty game on PrizePicks.

• Spread: New York Liberty -6.5 (1.85x payout)
• Over/Under: 174.5 (1.96x payout on Over)
• Game Winner Payout: Aces 2.85x | Liberty 1.4x

Make your Aces vs. Liberty prediction on spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks — available in 35 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Aces vs. Liberty Injury Report for Tuesday, June 30

Let’s dive into the full Aces vs. Liberty injury report for Tuesday, June 30, via WNBA.com.

Las Vegas Aces Injury Report

• C A’ja Wilson (ankle) - OUT
• F Janiah Barker (leg) - OUT
• G Dana Evans (leg) - OUT

New York Liberty Injury Report

• F Satou Sabally (concussion) - OUT

Aces vs. Liberty Prediction on Winner – 6/30/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Aces vs. Liberty prediction on the winner for the WNBA Commissioner's Cup Final on Tuesday, June 30.

• The Aces own the second-best road record in the league at 9-2 (the Lynx are 9-1). 
• Since losing three straight games at Barclays Center in late May, the Liberty are 5-1 in their last six home contests.
• The Liberty have controlled this series since 2024, winning nine of the past 11 matchups.
• New York has attempted at least 25 3-pointers in eight consecutive games, shooting 37% in this span.
• The Liberty allow the second-fewest free throw attempts per game (18.6), but the Aces posted at least 33 tries in each of the last two outings.
• Las Vegas is listed as an underdog for the first time this season. The Aces compiled a 4-0 against-the-spread (ATS) record in their final four tries in the dog role in 2025.
• Both of these teams sit at the bottom of the league in defensive turnover rate. The Aces rank 14th at 15.2%, while the Liberty are last at 14.7%.
• The Aces lead the league in effective field goal percentage (eFG%) at 55% while posting a net rating of +8.7 on the road. New York's eFG% drops from 57.3% away from home to 50.5% in its own arena.

Lock in your Aces vs. Liberty prediction on PrizePicks before tonight’s WNBA game.

Aces vs. Liberty Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 6/30/26

Here are the top Aces vs. Liberty picks to target on Tuesday, June 30. Today’s WNBA picks for PrizePicks include Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu.

Liberty F Breanna Stewart vs. Aces: 28.5 Pts + Rebs

• Stewart leads New York in scoring at 19.2 PPG and is second in rebounds per game (8.5).
• The former UConn star has finished with 28 or fewer points and rebounds in six consecutive outings (24.6 PR average).
• The top pick of the 2016 draft scored 20 points and grabbed 6 boards in last Tuesday’s win at Las Vegas. She's failed to produce at least 29 points and rebounds in four of the past six meetings.
• Stewart's offensive rating drops from 115.8 on the road to 104 at home. The Aces are second in the league in road defensive rating (104), creating a potentially tough matchup.

Add Breanna Stewart to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Liberty G Sabrina Ionescu vs. Aces: 14.5 Points

• It’s been an injury-ravaged season for the former Oregon standout, who has missed 12 games.
• Ionescu is averaging a career-low 9.5 PPG and has scored more than 15 points just once.
• Her top scoring output came at Las Vegas last week, seeing her put up only 16 points on 5-of-12 shooting.
• The 2020 WNBA Draft's top selection averages 8.0 PPG and shoots 28.1% from the floor at Barclays Center in 2026.

Add Sabrina Ionescu to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Make Aces vs. Liberty Commissioner's Cup Final Picks on PrizePicks

Will the Liberty take advantage of Wilson’s absence and capture the Commissioner’s Cup championship tonight against the Aces? The team and some of its players don't fare particularly well at home, which road warrior Las Vegas might take advantage of despite being down its top player.

Don’t wait until tip-off — make your Aces vs. Liberty picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick WNBA players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.

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