Will the Giants score their first run of the 2026 MLB season? Saturday, March 28, could provide the answer, as the San Francisco Giants (0-2) host the New York Yankees (2-0) at 7:15 p.m. ET on FOX.
The Giants look to get in the win and run columns tonight after losing the first two games of this series. Yankees SP Will Warren (3.91 xFIP in 2025) and Giants SP Tyler Mahle (4.43 xFIP in 2025) are slated for today's starting pitcher matchup.
Below, we’ll break down our Yankees vs. Giants prediction and picks for tonight's game. Make your MLB picks on PrizePicks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
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Yankees vs. Giants Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
The New York Yankees are on the hunt for a 3-0 series sweep vs. the San Francisco Giants. Last season, New York finished second in the AL East and led the division in run differential (+164). The Yankees are among the favorites to win their division once again.
Perhaps due to a lack of fortune last year, the Yankees barely touched their roster for the 2026 campaign. They are likely relying on the development of their young starting pitchers, headlined by SP Cam Schittler and SP Will Warren, who pitches tonight.
Warren will look to follow up the dominant outing of Schittler yesterday, where he went 5.1 strong innings, allowing 1 hit while totaling 8 strikeouts.
The Giants need to score a run. Yesterday marked just the 19th time in MLB history that a team began a season with back-to-back donuts in the runs column. It is also the first time in the Giants' 144-year history that such a “feat” has occurred.
San Francisco made a big splash in the offseason by acquiring three-time batting champion 1B Luis Arraez. DH Rafael Devers likely remains the most feared hitter in their lineup, but Arraez in the leadoff spot could be largely responsible for kick-starting a slumping offense.
Arraez is seeing the ball well with a 12.5% BB rate through two games, so it could be a matter of time before he is spraying his patented line drives all over the ballpark.
Yankees vs. Giants Spread, Over/Under
The Yankees enter Saturday’s game as road favorites, returning a 1.72x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Giants are home underdogs with a 2.12x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: Yankees -1.5 (2.27x payout)
- Over/Under: 8.5 Runs (1.92x payout on over)
- Game Winner Payout: Yankees 1.72x | Giants 2.12x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Yankees vs. Giants Prediction on Spread – 3/28/26
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your Yankees vs. Giants MLB prediction on the 1.5-run spread for Saturday, March 28, on PrizePicks.
- The Giants had the second-worst run line record in the MLB last season at 74-88-0 (45.7%); only the Colorado Rockies were worse.
- They were also a league-worst 17-31-0 (35.4%) ATS in non-league games.
- Giants SP Tyler Mahle could be due for negative regression following his solid 2025 campaign.
- Mahle had a 2.18 ERA in 2025, but his xFIP was over 2 runs higher at 4.43 xFIP.
- According to FanGraphs, Mahle had a .260 BABIP, .33 points lower than his career average of .293.
- His LOB% was 9.8% higher than his career average (64.6% vs. 74.8%), and Mahle's HR/FB rate was 8.3% lower than his career average (4.9% vs. 13.2%).
- On the flip side, Yankees SP Will Warren may be due for positive regression, as his 3.91 xFIP in 2025 was almost half a run lower than his ERA (4.44).
Yankees vs. Giants Picks for PrizePicks Today: 3/28/26
Here are the top Yankees vs. Giants picks to target for Saturday, March 28, on PrizePicks. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks are headlined by Yankees SP Will Warren and Giants SP Tyler Mahle.
Yankees SP Will Warren vs. Giants Projection: 1.5 Walks
- Warren started to settle into his own as the 2025 season progressed. Over his last 11 starts, he walked fewer than two batters in seven games.
- His numbers dip against LHH with a 4.66 xFIP and a 4.94 BB/9. Against RHH, he had just a 3.06 xFIP and a 2.11 BB/9.
- The Giants’ lineup will likely feature four LHH, and two of them are C Patrick Bailey (6.6% BB rate in 2025) and 1B Luis Arraez (5.0% BB rate in 2025).
- Warren threw for roughly 25.1 innings over six spring training starts. Due to short starts in spring training, his chances for walks could be limited today.
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Giants SP Tyler Mahle vs. Yankees Projection: 4.5 Strikeouts
- In 2025, the Yankees struck out 1.5% more on the road than they did at Yankee Stadium.
- Mahle had an 8.39 K/9 at home as opposed to a paltry 4.36 K/9 in road games last season.
- Against LHH, he had a 7.81 K/9, 2.23 BB/9, and 3.98 xFIP, compared to 6.02 K/9, 3.69 BB/9, and 4.82 xFIP vs. RHH.
- The Yankees’ lineup against RHP features six LHH.
- A virtually identical New York lineup last season had a 23.5% strikeout rate, the sixth-highest K% in the majors.
- Mahle pitched a spring-training high of 67 pitches in his last outing, meaning he could be bound for 80+ pitches on Saturday.
Make Yankees vs. Giants Picks on PrizePicks
Will the Yankees pitching continue to befuddle the Giants' hitters? Or will San Francisco regress to an offensive norm by finally putting some runs on the board this Saturday?
You can make Yankees vs. Giants picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick MLB players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. And with Team Picks, you can make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
Stick around with the Playbook for continued MLB predictions, picks, and news throughout the 2026 season.
