The 2026 NCAA Tournament continues on Friday, March 20, as the No. 3 seed Virginia Cavaliers (29-5) clash with the No. 14 seed Wright State Raiders (23-11). Leaning on their trademark defense, the Cavaliers aim to avoid an early March upset as 17.5-point favorites on PrizePicks Team Picks.
Let’s dive into a Wright State vs. Virginia prediction on the spread for this showdown, tipping off at 1:50 p.m. ET on TBS. Make your college basketball picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
New users on PrizePicks can start the 2026 NCAA Tournament with $50 in Lineups instantly after playing $5+ — win or lose! Just sign up with promo code PLAYBOOK and you’re good to go.
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Wright State vs. Virginia Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Virginia is the No. 3 seed in the Midwest region with a polished 29-5 record, including an ACC Tournament runner-up finish after falling to Duke, 74-70, in the championship game. The Cavaliers' most glaring defeat was a 77-51 pounding at Cameron Indoor Stadium on February 28.
Virginia's signature Pack Line defense remains among the nation's most suffocating, ranked 10th in the country in field goal percentage allowed (39.5%). The team's methodical pace — 231st at 69.6 possessions per game — makes every game a grind-it-out battle.
F Thijs De Ridder is the most dangerous offensive weapon in this matchup, leading Virginia with 15.5 points and 6.2 rebounds per game and a 50.8% field goal percentage. The Belgian-born forward erupted for 32 points at Notre Dame and has delivered five 20+ point performances in ACC play alone.
G Malik Thomas (12.4 PPG) and G Sam Lewis (10.8 PPG) provide reliable secondary scoring as the Cavaliers look to snap a haunting 0-3 NCAA Tournament drought dating back to their 2019 championship.
Virginia and Wright State have never met in program history. The Raiders arrive carrying a respectable 19-13-0 against-the-spread record into this year’s tournament.
Wright State F Michael Imariagbe (11.8 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 58.9% FG%) is the Horizon League's most dominant big man, and the Raiders have won 18 of their last 22 games. The biggest spread they'll face all season comes on the biggest stage in program history.
Wright State vs. Virginia Spread, Over/Under
The Raiders enter this matchup as 17.5-point underdogs, returning a 10x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if Wright State wins outright.
Meanwhile, Virginia is the favorite with a 1.03x payout if the Cavaliers win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: Virginia Cavaliers -17.5 (1.78x payout)
- Over/Under: 145.5 (1.85x payout on over)
- Game Winner Payout: Wright State 10x | Virginia 1.03x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
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Wright State vs. Virginia Prediction on Spread – 3/20/26
Here are some key stats to know before locking in your Wright State vs. Virginia prediction against the spread for the NCAA Tournament matchup on Friday, March 20, on PrizePicks.
- Virginia has a 17-5-2 ATS record (53.1%). The Cavaliers are just 8-6-1 ATS when favored by double digits.
- Wright State is a red-hot 6-2 ATS in its last eight games entering the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
- According to Bart Torvik, Virginia has recorded an adjusted defensive efficiency of 95.9, ranking in the top 15 nationally.
- The Cavaliers allow just 68.4 PPG and limit opponents to 30.6% from deep.
- The Raiders have knocked down 36.1% of their 3-point shots, ranking fourth in the Horizon League.
- Wright State secures 35.4 rebounds per game, sitting in the top five in the Horizon League. Meanwhile, Virginia's deliberate pace limits total rebounds, but the Hoos secure defensive boards at a 73.3% clip.
- De Ridder has averaged 15.1 PPG and is shooting 49% from the field and 37.5% from deep over his last nine games.
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Make Wright State vs. Virginia Picks on PrizePicks
Virginia has weathered a demanding ACC schedule, relying heavily on its defense to earn a top-three seed. Now, can the Cavaliers avoid a first-round stumble and dictate the tempo as their 2026 NCAA Tournament journey officially tips off?
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Check out the Playbook throughout the 2026 NCAA Tournament for more college basketball predictions, picks, and news every day.
