College football fans are in store for another treat on Sunday, September 6, including Wisconsin vs. #4 Notre Dame at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC. PrizePicks tabs the Fighting Irish as a clear 21.5-point favorite on the spread.
Wisconsin and Notre Dame will battle under the lights in a neutral-site game in Green Bay’s Lambeau Field. Each program is pulling out all the stops, including alternate uniforms. The Badgers hope to bounce back following a 4-8 2026 season, while the Irish are firmly among national title contenders.
Below, we’ll look at each team entering the 2026 season, followed by a Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame prediction and player picks for projections on PrizePicks.
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Wisconsin vs. #4 Notre Dame Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for NCAAF Week 1
Week 1 of the college football season often features messy play, but tonight’s battle could surprise with an efficient game thanks to returning experience. Bill Connelly of ESPN cited Notre Dame with the most returning production in the nation (72%), and Wisconsin’s 59% mark is 35th among 138 FBS teams.
Wisconsin enters the fourth season of the Luke Fickell era, and frankly, it hasn’t gone well. The Badgers went 7-6 in his first season, followed by 5-7 and 4-8 finishes. Fickell is firmly in the hot seat, needing a winning record to extend his stay in Madison.
According to Game On Paper, Wisconsin tallied a putrid -0.07 adjusted EPA per play in the 2025 season (26th percentile), contributing to only 12.8 PPG (134th out of 136 teams). The unit heavily relied on the run with a 58.5% rush-play rate (84th percentile) yet posted 3.3 yards per carry (10th percentile).
Led by the defensive-minded head coach Fickell, the defense did its part by holding teams to 21.6 PPG (74th percentile) and -0.13 adjusted EPA per play (78th percentile). If the Badgers are to improve, it must be on the back of the offense.
Wisconsin offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes survived the offseason, likely aided by a bevy of injuries in 2025, as he enters his second season with the program.
Fortunately, Grimes should benefit from Old Dominion transfer QB Colton Joseph starting, as he recorded 2,624 passing yards, 1,007 rushing yards, and 34 total TDs last season.
However, the Badgers have a stiff test against one of college football’s best defenses. Notre Dame was stifling by holding teams to -0.24 adjusted EPA per play in 2025 (fifth nationally) and returns 77% of production on defense (second nationally).
On the other side of the ball, the Fighting Irish lost RBs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price to the 2026 NFL Draft, but this should remain a strong unit led by QB CJ Carr, a strong offensive line, and a potentially improved receiving corps — featuring Ohio State transfer WRs Quincy Porter and Mylan Graham.
After narrowly missing the College Football Playoff last season, Notre Dame enters 2026 as a clear national championship contender, carrying the third-shortest payout to win the hardware (7.14x) on PrizePicks. Furthermore, Carr is a Heisman hopeful, featuring the second-shortest payout to win the award (7.14x).
Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame Spread, Over/Under, Payouts – Sunday, September 6
As one of college football’s best teams, Notre Dame opens 2026 as a hefty 21.5-point favorite for the spread against Wisconsin, per PrizePicks.
Here are the full payouts for Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame on PrizePicks, including winner payouts, the spread, and over/under.
Make your Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame prediction on the spread on PrizePicks!
PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame Prediction on Spread for NCAAF Week 1
After beginning the 2025 season 0-2, Notre Dame ripped off 10 consecutive wins to end last season. This became a team no one wanted to see in the CFP, winning its final four regular-season games by an average margin of +38.3 points per game while going 3-1 against the spread in the split.
Now, the Fighting Irish enter the 2026 campaign with plenty to prove following a playoff snub. Wisconsin could be on the receiving end of some pent-up anger.
As mentioned, Notre Dame returns a ton of experience we can rely on. That includes an offensive line that could be one of the nation’s best, with Sullivan Absher as the new face earning the right guard spot.
The Irish have two notable injuries headed into tonight, as transfer WR Quincy Porter is out, while star LB Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa is questionable following last year’s ACL injury.
If Viliamu-Asa returns to an already loaded defense, the Badgers are likely in major trouble. This unit has college football’s best CB in Leonard Moore, who is currently fourth on NFL Mock Draft Database’s 2027 Consensus Big Board. S Brauntae Johnson (19th) and Viliamu-Asa (38th) are also potential first-round picks for the 2027 NFL Draft.
The pass rush added even more talent with a former 5-star EDGE prospect, Alabama transfer Keon Keeley. Keep in mind this unit generated a 7.61% sack rate last season (81st percentile). Meanwhile, Wisconsin allowed a putrid 9.33% sack rate (eighth percentile).
That’s already a major issue against one of the nation’s best secondaries, and the Badgers’ starting RG Emerson Mandell (foot) is out tonight.
Colton Joseph had turnover issues last season, tallying 10 INTs over 12 games at Old Dominion last year. With potential pressure and Notre Dame generating 1.9 takeaways per game (92nd percentile) in 2025, Wisconsin must take care of the ball to stay in this game.
Usually we are used to saying Notre Dame’s offense is one-dimensional. But that’s no longer the case, as Carr is tracking to be a first-round pick in the 2027 draft, and the Irish posted 0.35 EPA/Pass (96th percentile) a season ago.
If this receiving unit is even better than last year, Carr could feast all season, beginning with a Wisconsin defense that surrendered 7.6 yards per passing attempt (30th percentile) a season ago.
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Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks – 9/6/26
Sunday’s top Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame picks to target on PrizePicks include CJ Carr and Jaden Greathouse.
Notre Dame QB CJ Carr vs. Wisconsin: 234.5 Pass Yards
- Considering returning talent in the passing game while RBs Love and Price moved on to the NFL, perhaps Notre Dame’s 44.1% pass-play rate (25th percentile) from 2025 will increase this season.
- If the Irish maintain the usual play-calling, Carr was still close to this projection with 228.4 pass yards per game in 2025.
- Wisconsin gave up only 3.4 yards per carry (88th percentile) last season, and this is a team that returns 57% of production on defense (64th percentile).
- Fourth and Short features a metric dubbed “second level yards,” indicating how many yards a defense allows 2.5 to 5 yards downfield per carry. Wisconsin was excellent in this metric, yielding only 0.9 second-level yards per rushing attempt (78th percentile).
- If the Badgers are capping explosive runs, that may turn Notre Dame to Carr’s strong 10.6 average depth of target (aDOT) from last season, per Pro Football Focus.
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Notre Dame WR Jaden Greathouse vs. Wisconsin: 49.5 Receiving Yards
- Further aiding Carr’s chances to shine, Notre Dame could have one of its best receiving corps in years. That includes returning WRs Jordan Faison and Jaden Greathouse.
- Greathouse was hampered by a significant hamstring injury last year, appearing in only four games. In 2024, he enjoyed a CFP breakout with 116.5 receiving yards per game in the final two games of the season.
- However, Greathouse posted only 4 receptions for 73 receiving yards over four 2025 outings.
- His role is also in question with Ohio State transfer WR Mylan Graham listed as OR for the starting job on the Irish’s initial depth chart.
- Before two standout playoff performances in 2024, Greathouse surpassed this projection in only two of 14 games in the 2024 campaign.
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Make Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame Picks on PrizePicks
Wisconsin opens the season with perhaps its toughest matchup of the entire season, truly testing if the Badgers are ready to take the next step. After a CFP snub, Notre Dame opted out of a bowl game last season, and now, the Irish can finally take that frustration to the field on Sunday night.
Don’t wait until kickoff — make your Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame picks on PrizePicks now. Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in on your predictions if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders — now available in 36 states!
Keep it here with the Playbook for continued CFB picks, predictions, futures, and more as we jump into the 2026 season.
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