Wings vs. Mercury Prediction, Spread, WNBA Picks – Monday, September 21

As the WNBA regular season winds down ahead of the playoffs, there’s a pair of intriguing matchups on the docket for Monday. The nightcap sees the postseason-bound Dallas Wings take on a Phoenix Mercury team that’s fallen from grace at a rapid pace.

Heading into the 10 p.m. ET bout on USA Network, Dallas is favored away from home by 6.5 points on PrizePicks. As the Wings aim to improve their seeding to kick off a new week, Phoenix has a massive chance to play the spoiler role. 

Below, we'll break down our Wings vs. Mercury prediction and picks for Monday’s WNBA game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Wings vs. Mercury prediction on PrizePicks now.

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Wings vs. Mercury Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Monday, September 21

What a difference a year makes for both of these teams, albeit with completely opposite meanings. For the Wings, the first campaign of the Jose Fernandez era couldn’t be going much better considering how 2025 went in Chris Koclanes’ only season at the helm.

Dallas already owns 26 wins after mustering just 10 in 2025, largely thanks to an offense that is tracking to finish with the single-highest rating (112.8) in franchise history. Star G Paige Bueckers is leading the way by playing MVP-level basketball, fueling a Wings attack and helping the team achieve a six-game winning streak. 

The Wings have already locked up one of the eight WNBA playoff seeds, although they enter Monday night’s play tied with the Washington Mystics and New York Liberty at 26-16. They’re also just one game behind the fifth-seeded Indiana Fever. According to ESPN’s WNBA BPI, Dallas owns a 10.9% chance to make the WNBA Finals and a 3.5% chance to win it all. 

Phoenix, meanwhile, has gone from competing in the championship round in 2025 to being 12 games below .500 to start this week. Not even the in-season trade pickup of all-world G Kelsey Plum was enough to save this team, which has gone 3-7 in its last 10 and still doesn’t know if Plum will even re-sign during the offseason. 

An anemic offense (11th in per-game scoring, 14th in field goal attempts) has doomed the Mighty Mercury. Age is also a factor, as the club’s top four scorers not named Plum (but including wing DeWanna Bonner, who was recently bought out) are an average of 32.7 years old. This organization could use a quick reset once the 2026 campaign ends. 

These two squads have faced off twice in 2026, with Dallas winning on both occasions and each team splitting the against-the-spread outcome. The last meeting took place just two days ago, when Dallas won 87-82 and Bueckers’ 20-point first half wound up being enough.

Wings vs. Mercury Spread, Over/Under – Monday, September 21

The Wings enter Monday’s game as 6.5-point road favorites against the Mercury, returning a 1.4x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.

Here are the full payouts for the Wings vs. Mercury game on PrizePicks.

Make your Wings vs. Mercury prediction on spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks — available in 36 states!

Payouts show potential returns on correct Team Picks predictions. A 2x payout returns $200 on a $100 entry. Lower multipliers reflect outcomes users are picking as more likely. Payouts are live as of writing and subject to change.

Wings vs. Mercury Injury Report for Monday, September 21

Let’s dive into the full Wings vs. Mercury injury report for Monday, September 21, via WNBA.com.

Dallas Wings Injury Report

• F Alanna Smith (leg): OUT

Phoenix Mercury Injury Report

• G-F Kahleah Copper (groin): Probable
• G Kara Dunn (knee): Probable
• G Kelsey Plum (leg): OUT

Wings vs. Mercury Prediction on Spread – 9/21/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Wings vs. Mercury prediction on the spread for Monday, September 21’s game. 

• Dallas is nothing special as a road favorite, going 3-6 ATS, but Phoenix’s 2-7 ATS mark as home underdogs is even worse.
• Second-chance points could go the Wings’ way in this one. According to databallr, they rank sixth with an offensive rebounding net rating contribution of 0.6, whereas Phoenix is dead last at -3.1. 
• Two particular areas of the floor could be taken advantage of on Monday. Phoenix is allowing foes to shoot 42.0% on midrange tries (12th) and 37.0% from deep (15th); Dallas shoots 42.9% (third) and 34.1% (eighth) on those attempts, respectively. 
• The Mercury are markedly less disciplined than their counterparts, committing a turnover-per-play ratio of 15.4% to the Wings’ 13.2% and logging 18.9 personal fouls per game to the Wings’ 18.3. 
• Phoenix sends its opponents to the free throw line at the second-highest clip (34.6%) in the league. Dallas is a respectable 78.9% shooting team in that regard..

Lock in your Wings vs. Mercury prediction on PrizePicks before tonight’s WNBA game.

Wings vs. Mercury Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 9/21/26

Here are the top Wings vs. Mercury picks to target on Monday, September 21. Today’s WNBA picks for PrizePicks include G Paige Bueckers, G Arike Ogunbowale, and F Alyssa Thomas.

Wings G Paige Bueckers vs. Mercury: 28.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts

• Bueckers is breaking out in her second season, averaging a combined 30.5 points, rebounds, and assists each night. That number is 32.2 in her last eight games. 
• The former UConn standout is much more efficient at the rim in her sophomore campaign, making 78.7% of her shots from 0-3 feet after canning 69.2% in 2025.
• Bueckers spends 37.4% of her time on-ball, ranking in the 86th percentile, and has a 25.5% usage rate (89th percentile). 
• Phoenix allows the highest defensive rebounding percentage (79.1%) in the sport. 

Add Paige Bueckers + Wings to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Wings G Arike Ogunbowale vs. Mercury: 16.5 Points

• Ogunbowale is enjoying a nice year for the Wings, chipping in 15.3 PPG but shooting 45.5% since the start of August. 
• Improved efficiency from floater range and long midrange is boosting Ogunbowale’s overall productivity. She’s canning 47.3% of her looks from 3-10 feet and a career-high 48.6% from 16 feet to the 3-point line. 
• Via databallr, 42.1% of the 29-year-old’s makes are of the unassisted variety, putting her in the 79th percentile. 
• The lifetime Dallas star is adept at getting to the free throw line, averaging 4.5 attempts in her career and shooting 86.9% at the charity stripe. 

Add Arike Ogunbowale + Wings to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Mercury F Alyssa Thomas vs. Wings: 30.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts

• Thomas just exploded for 19 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists on 8-of-11 shooting against Dallas on Saturday. 
• The 34-year-old fills up the stat sheet like no other, averaging 30.7 PRA on the year and 31.5 in her last dozen outings.
• Thomas is a productive rebounder on the defensive glass, with her 18.2% rate sitting in the 86th percentile.
• This is the third year in a row in which Thomas has produced an assist clip of 40% or greater. 

Add Alyssa Thomas + Mercury to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Make Wings vs. Mercury Picks on PrizePicks

Even with every WNBA playoff spot obtained, there’s still plenty to sort out near the bottom of the postseason picture this week. Dallas has a prime opportunity to gain some ground on its competitors, but Phoenix likely isn’t going to go away without a fight in a chance to make someone else’s life more difficult. 

Don’t wait until tip-off — make your Wings vs. Mercury picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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