Our Wimbledon predictions for Day 5 third-round matches on Friday, July 3, include Roman Safiullin vs. Joao Fonseca, Daria Kasatkina vs, Naomi Osaka, and Arthur Rinderknech vs. Novak Djokovic.
Djokovic is coming off a dominant second-round win and will look to keep rolling in his bid for a 25th Grand Slam title. Fonseca continues to build off his strong finish at the French Open and will try to reach the fourth round at Wimbledon for the first time.
On the women’s side, Naomi Osaka is also seeking her first fourth-round appearance at Wimbledon.
Below, we’ll break down our best Wimbledon predictions and picks for Friday’s Day 5 matches, including winner payouts, key stats, and third-round match predictions for PrizePicks.
Make your Wimbledon predictions on PrizePicks for Friday’s matches now!
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2026 Wimbledon Predictions, Day 5 Picks – Friday, July 3
Before we get into our Wimbledon predictions for Friday, here’s a quick look at the three matches we’re focusing on and the consensus favorites on PrizePicks Team Picks — where you can pick winners on every Wimbledon match.
Roman Safiullin vs. Joao Fonseca — Third Round
- Safiullin– 3.12x payout | Fonseca – 1.33x payout
Arthur Rinderknech vs. Novak Djokovic — Third Round
- Rinderknech – 5.88x payout | Djokovic – 1.09x payout
Daria Kasatkina vs. Naomi Osaka — Third Round
- Kasatkina – 4.16x payout | Osaka – 1.2x payout
On PrizePicks Team Picks, a 2x payout represents a return of $200 on a $100 entry (or $20 on $10). A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.
Payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. Tennis winner markets are available in 35 states.
Roman Safiullin vs. Joao Fonseca Wimbledon Prediction — Friday, July 3
Match Winner Payouts: Safiullin 3.12x | Fonseca 1.33x
Tournament Round: Third Round (Round of 32)
2026 Record Entering Wimbledon: Safiullin 0-2 | Fonseca 14-11
Head-to-Head Record: First Career Meeting
How to Watch: ESPN/ESPN App
Following a quarterfinals appearance at the French Open – easily his best result at a major – Joao Fonseca has kept the momentum going so far at Wimbledon, winning his first two matches in straight sets. He’s been broken just twice across those victories.
Following a mediocre start to the season, the 19-year-old has lifted his level in these middle two majors and could be starting to tap into the ceiling many envisioned since he first came on the scene.
Next, he’ll face an opponent who’s had a much bumpier ride into the third round.
Roman Safiullin has already played five matches after coming through qualifying, and to make matters worse, his last three have all gone five sets. In all, the Russian has spent over 15 and a half hours on court, which is over triple the time Fonseca has played.
This will make things all the tougher for Safiullin, a player who missed the end of 2025 due to injury and hasn’t faced top-flight competition very often this year. Spending nearly the entire year in Challenger events, the world No. 132 came into Wimbledon with just two tour-level matches, both of which he lost.
Safiullin has cracked the top 40 before, so he’s a better player than his lowly ranking would suggest. However, this will be just his third match against a top-50 player in 2026, and facing an in-form Fonseca could prove too much after the physical and mental toll he's already endured this week.
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Safiullin vs. Fonseca Pick for Wimbledon on Friday
Joao Fonseca — 26 Fantasy Score
Note: In PrizePicks tennis fantasy scoring, players earn 10 points to start (match played), games won/lost are +1/-1, sets won/lost at +3/-3, aces are 0.5, while double faults count for -0.5.
Over his career, Safiullin is 25-44 versus top-50 players and 8-26 versus top-20 players. Fonseca is the world No. 27 and has a career-high ranking of No. 24.
Safiullin was a Wimbledon quarterfinalist in 2023, but this is just his second major third-round appearance in the 11 Grand Slams he’s played in since. Even with that quarterfinal appearance, the Russian is just 8-10 in career tour-level grass matches.
Fonseca has scored 31 and 32.5 fantasy points in his first two Wimbledon matches.
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Arthur Rinderknech vs. Novak Djokovic Wimbledon Prediction — Friday, July 3
Match Winner Payouts: Rinderknech 5.88x | Djokovic 1.09x
Tournament Round: Third Round (Round of 32)
2026 Record Entering Wimbledon: Rinderknech 11-14 | Djokovic 9-4
Head-to-Head Record: First Career Meeting
How to Watch: ESPN/ESPN App
After dropping a set in the first round, Novak Djokovic made quick work of Stefanos Tsitsipas on Wednesday, winning 6-3, 6-4, 6-2 in just one hour and 38 minutes.
Djokovic won an absurd 83% of his service points, and he squashed all five of Tsitsipas’ break-point chances.
Djokovic was so unbothered that he pranked a ball girl during a break in play.
That doesn’t bode well for Arthur Rinderknech, a player with an underwhelming 11-14 record this season. He also entered Wimbledon having lost four of his last five matches.
Although Rinderknech has also dropped just one set through two rounds, three of the six sets he's won have gone to a tiebreak, so it hasn't all been smooth sailing.
The 30-year-old has a career losing record in tour-level matches across all surfaces, which includes a 41.9% win rate on grass. Particularly given his form coming into the tournament, the Frenchman could have a tough time causing the seven-time Wimbledon champion many problems.
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Arthur Rinderknech vs. Novak Djokovic Pick for Wimbledon on Friday
Rinderknech vs. Djokovic Pick — 3.5 Total Sets
Djokovic has failed to advance past the Wimbledon third round only once since 2009 and has reached at least the quarterfinals in eight straight.
On the other hand, this is just the second time Rinderknech has even reached the third round at Wimbledon, which is as far as he’s ever gotten.
Per Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings, Djokovic ranks third on grass, and Rinderknech ranks 66th.
Over his career, Rinderknech is 3-21 against top-10 players.
Daria Kasatkina vs. Naomi Osaka Prediction for Wimbledon — Friday, July 3
Match Winner Payouts: Kasatkina 4.16x | Osaka 1.2x
Tournament Round: Third Round (Round of 32)
2026 Record Entering Wimbledon: Kasatkina 15-13 | Osaka 16-7
Head-to-Head Record: Osaka Leads 3-0
How to Watch: ESPN/ESPN App
Naomi Osaka hasn’t faced much adversity through the first two rounds, winning 6-1, 7-5 over Elsa Jacquemot and 6-3, 6-2 over Anastasia Gasanova. Osaka will get at least one more round to show off her Kill Bill-inspired white kimono.
While it’s no secret that Osaka is most comfortable on hard courts, it’s still a bit surprising that she’s never made it past the third round at Wimbledon.
That being said, Osaka just had a career-best showing at the French Open (fourth round) and was a finalist on grass at Bad Homburg. Perhaps she’s playing at a level that can push her to the fourth round and maybe beyond. Although she retired from that Bad Homburg final with a foot injury, her play so far suggests it hasn't bothered her too much.
On the other hand, Daria Kasatkina didn’t exactly come to the All England Club on fire, carrying a four-match losing streak. While Kasatkina managed to break that skid here, she needed a deciding set in both wins.
The 29-year-old is a former top-10 player, but she's played sub-.500 tennis in tour-level matches since the start of 2025, and she’s now ranked No. 65.
She also missed time earlier this season with a hip injury, perhaps explaining some of her recent inconsistencies.
Osaka appears to be the one playing at a higher level right now, and as long as her recent foot injury doesn't become an issue, she could have the edge in this matchup.
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Kasatkina vs. Osaka Wimbledon Pick for Friday
Naomi Osaka Pick — 23.5 Fantasy Score
Note: In PrizePicks tennis fantasy scoring, players earn 10 points to start (match played), games won/lost are +1/-1, sets won/lost at +3/-3, aces are 0.5, while double faults count for -0.5.
Kasatkina is a past Wimbledon quarterfinalist, but that happened way back in 2018, and she’s stalled out at the third round or earlier ever since.
Osaka is 3-0 in the career head-to-head against Kasatkina. The latter is also 2-7 versus top-20 players over the last two seasons.
Naomi is the 13th-best on grass in Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings, whereas Daria is 55th.
Osaka has scored 24 or more fantasy points in five straight completed matches on grass, which exceeds this projection
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Make Your Wimbledon Predictions Today on PrizePicks
We’re getting a lot of star power in Thursday’s early Wimbledon matches between Novak Djokovic, Naomi Osaka, and Joao Fonseca. Who will extend their Wimbledon journey into the weekend?
Don’t wait until the Wimbledon Day 5 matches start — make your Wimbledon predictions on PrizePicks now.
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