2025 Heisman trophy winner QB Fernando Mendoza went No. 1 overall in the 2026 NFL Draft on Thursday night to the Las Vegas Raiders.
He joins a Raiders franchise, with co-owner Tom Brady, that went an NFL-worst 3-14 last season, finishing last in scoring at 14.2 points per game.
We know the Raiders hope Mendoza is the long-term future for the franchise, but when will that future start? While Las Vegas is no longer on the draft clock, the clock has started on Mendoza taking over the league’s worst offense.
Below, we’ll break down the Raiders QB depth chart and predict if Mendoza will start at QB for the Oakland Raiders — with a 6.5 Games Started projection on PrizePicks.
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Will Fernando Mendoza Start at QB for the Raiders in 2026?
Immediately after Mendoza was drafted, PrizePicks posted a projection for Mendoza to start 6.5 games in 2026, via the NFLSZN board, a season-long fantasy game.
Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1 overall marked the fourth consecutive NFL Draft, and eighth time in the last nine drafts that a QB went first overall.
Let’s take a look at how many starts the previous seven No. 1 pick QBs made in their rookie season. The 17-game season started in 2021.
- 2025 Cam Ward, Tennessee - 17 starts
- 2024 Caleb Williams, Chicago - 17
- 2023 Bryce Young, Carolina - 16
- 2021 Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville - 17
- 2020 Joe Burrow, Cincinnati - 10
- 2019 Kyler Murray, Arizona - 16
- 2018 Baker Mayfield, Cleveland - 13
All of them played several more games than the 6.5 games projection set by PrizePicks, although the current QB situation in Las Vegas could make it sticky.
Raiders QB Depth Chart: Who is Fernando Mendoza’s QB Competition in Las Vegas?
Now that Mendoza is officially on the Raiders roster, he will get the chance to compete for the starting job, with the Raiders' first NFL game 20 weeks away. Let’s take a look at who is currently on the Raiders depth chart at QB.
QB Aidan O’Connell, who started Week 18 for Las Vegas last season in place of Geno Smith, is back on the roster for 2026.
The Raiders’ passing offense finished 28th in the NFL in 2025, averaging 167.7 yards per game. O’Connell also played in nine games (six starts) for the Raiders in 2024 as Gardner Minshew’s backup and is not considered a threat to start in 2026.
O’Connell is joined in the Raiders QB room by veteran Kirk Cousins, who was signed to a 5-year, $172M contract, which is designed as a one-year, $20M guaranteed “bridge” contract for 2026.
Cousins enters his 15th season in the NFL and joins the Raiders after spending the past two seasons with the Atlanta Falcons (2024-25). He has passed for 44,700 yards with 298 touchdowns, 131 interceptions, and a 96.8 passer rating over his career.
Make 2026 NFL Season Picks on PrizePicks
Will No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza join Cam Ward and Caleb Williams in starting from the first game of the season? How many games will he start for the Raiders in the 2026 season?
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