As teams finalize their cases to make the NCAA Tournament, there’s a huge opportunity ahead for both Wichita State and USF when they clash on Sunday.
After days of duking it out with their foes, the Shockers and Bulls take the floor for the American Athletic Conference Championship at 3:15 p.m. ET on ESPN. Which side can secure one additional statement win as the month of March rolls on? USF is favored by 6.5 points.
Below, we’ll break down our Wichita State vs. USF prediction and picks for Sunday’s game. Make your college basketball picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
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Wichita State vs. USF Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Year No. 3 under head coach Paul Mills has seen Wichita State reach its highest win total (22) since 2019-20. That includes a 13-5 conference record, the Shockers’ best since 2017-18.
In fact, WSU’s last loss was to this very USF club last month. Since then, Mills’ crew has ripped off seven straight victories.
USF is also having one of its best seasons in recent memory. This is just the second time since the turn of the decade that the Bulls have reached 24 or more wins. A stellar 15-3 conference mark propelled South Florida to new heights this year under new head coach Bryan Hodgson.
According to Wichita State’s official team site, the school owns a 12-4 advantage over USF since January of 2018. With that said, it was the Bulls who notched the aforementioned 66-58 triumph back on February 11. The Shockers won an 86-85 overtime thriller on January 18.
Wichita State vs. USF Spread, Over/Under
Wichita State enters Sunday’s game as 6.5-point underdogs, returning a 3.03x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
USF is favored with a 1.36x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: USF Bulls -6.5
- Over/Under: 147.5
- Game Winner Payout: Shockers 3.03x | Bulls 1.36x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Wichita State vs. USF Prediction on Spread – 3/15/26
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your Wichita State vs. USF prediction on spread for Sunday, March 15 on PrizePicks.
- Entering play on Sunday, USF owns a 14-11 against-the-spread record as favorites. Wichita State, meanwhile, is a tidy 7-3 ATS as underdogs.
- This one is a classic offense-versus-defense stylistic clash. USF scores more points on a nightly basis (87.5) than all but four programs, but Wichita State is 30th in effective field goal percentage allowed (47.4%).
- Per KenPom, USF has the 49th-ranked net rating at +15.82. Wichita State slots in at 82nd with a +10.32 mark.
- Via Bart Torvik, South Florida is the more balanced program, sitting 64th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 60th on defense. Wichita State is 115th and 63rd, respectively.
- The pace battle could be one to watch here. USF is 12th in adjusted tempo compared to WSU at 242nd.
Wichita State vs. USF Picks for PrizePicks Today: 3/15/26
Here are three top Wichita State vs. USF picks to target for Sunday, March 15 on PrizePicks. Player stat projections via PrizePicks are headlined by G Kenyon Giles, F Izaiyah Nelson, and G Joseph Pinion.
Wichita State G Kenyon Giles vs. USF Projection: 20.5 Points
- Through 32 games, Giles averages 19.7 PPG. In conference action, however, that number rises to 21.3.
- Giles scored 22 and 24 points in his two previous contests against South Florida this season.
- The senior guard’s 26.5% usage rate is a collegiate career high, as are his 17.0 shots per game.
- USF surrenders a 34.3% efficiency mark from 3-point land, and Giles takes 9.1 a night while making 38.4% of his tries.
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USF F Izaiyah Nelson vs. Wichita State Projection: 25.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts
- Nelson averages 26.7 combined points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) this season. Since the start of February, that figure is 27.0.
- In his two games vs. Wichita State this year, the Georgia native combined for 42 PRA.
- Nelson’s 56.6% field goal clip leads all American Athletic Conference players, as does his 63.7% mark on 2-pointers.
- Last season at Arkansas State, Nelson led the Sun Belt in offensive rebounding percentage (13.6) and total rebounding percentage (18.9).
USF G Joseph Pinion vs. Wichita State Projection: 22.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts
- Pinion puts up 20.6 PRA on a nightly basis. In his last seven contests, he’s leveled up to an average of 22.9.
- Via Bart Torvik, 347 players have at least the same share of team minutes (74.5%) and usage rate (20.5%) as Pinion. His 55.6% true shooting clip is 174th.
- The Shockers yield the 35th-lowest points per shot total at 1.032, also sitting 38th in 3-point defense (31.1%).
- WSU allows the ninth-lowest ratio of assists per made field goals (0.428), another feather in their cap as a great defensive team.
Make Wichita State vs. USF Picks on PrizePicks
Wichita State vs. USF picks for the American Athletic Conference Championship are just one of many ways hoops fans can get in on the daily college basketball action.
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