Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston State Prediction, Spread, NCAAF Picks – 10/14/26

The Sam Houston State Bearkats (1-4) look for their first Conference USA win, hosting the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (2-4). Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday, October 14 at Elliott T. Bowers Stadium in Huntsville, Texas and will be televised nationally on ESPN. 

The Bearkats have yet to defeat an FBS school in four tries, with their lone victory coming against Nicholls by a final of 59-0. Sam Houston State returns home after getting rolled at Liberty 35-3, its second straight 30+ point defeat.

Western Kentucky has gone through a pair of 21-point decisions in its first two conference games. Following a 34-13 setback at New Mexico State, the Hilltoppers routed Missouri State by that exact score last Thursday.

Below, we'll break down our Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston State prediction and picks for Wednesday's college football game, including the winner, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston State picks on PrizePicks now.

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Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston State Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Wednesday, October 14

The Hilltoppers enter Wednesday’s game as 1.5-point favorites against the Bearkats. Sam Houston State returns a 2x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston State game on PrizePicks.

PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Make your Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston State prediction on winner, over/under, and more on PrizePicks!

The Hilltoppers started the season with three consecutive losses of 35+ points. Following a 49-14 defeat at Nevada, WKU drew SEC champion Georgia and defending national champion Indiana. The results were as expected, with the Bulldogs bashing the Hilltoppers 70-20 before the Hoosiers pitched a 38-0 shutout.

Western Kentucky finally broke through with a 52-7 triumph over FCS school Mercyhurst but fell in a 20-3 hole in a 21-point defeat to New Mexico State.

In last Thursday’s 34-13 blowout of Missouri State, the Hilltoppers gained 464 yards and posted a total EPA of 11.98, according to Game on Paper. WKU ranks 118th nationally in EPA/pass and 116th in EPA/rush.

The numbers were ugly for Sam Houston State last week, compiling an EPA of -18.06 and picking up 4.24 yards per play in the loss at Liberty. The Bearkats were competitive in their first two losses to Troy and Tulsa, dropping them by a combined 9 points.

However, the Bearkats were outscored 84-17 in the past two defeats at Texas Tech and Liberty, extending their losing streak to six games against FBS squads dating back to 2025.

Since Sam Houston State entered Conference USA in 2023, the Bearkats have lost all three times to Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers rolled to a 41-24 home victory last season as WKU ran 23 more plays from scrimmage and gained 558 yards. 

Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston State Prediction on Spread – 10/14/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston State pick against the spread for Wednesday, October 14.

• Sam Houston State covered its first three games before getting wiped out against Texas Tech and Liberty.
• Western Kentucky closed as a 10.5-point home favorite in last season’s opening week win over Sam Houston State.
• The Hilltoppers are listed as a conference favorite for the first time after closing as 1.5-point underdogs against New Mexico State and Missouri State.
• Sam Houston State’s top defensive metric is ranking 25th in dropback EPA/play.
• The Bearkats have given up 12 TDs in the last two games, but only three of those scores were passing scores.
• Western Kentucky’s offensive success rate sits at 40%, good for just 112th nationally.

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Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston State Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 10/14/26

Here are top Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston State picks to target on Wednesday, October 14. Today’s college football picks for PrizePicks include RB Ajay Allen and QB Landyn Locke.

Western Kentucky RB Ajay Allen vs. Sam Houston State: 67.5 Rush Yards

• Allen compiled his second 100-yard rushing performance of 2026 against Missouri State, going off for 105 yards on 13 carries.
• The senior racked up 71 of those 105 yards on WKU’s second-to-last drive, including scoring his second TD of the game.
• The Bearkats have allowed three opposing RBs to post at least 90 yards on the ground this season.
• Missouri State ranked 97th defensively in EPA/rush, while Sam Houston State sits 130th nationally in that category.

Add Ajay Allen + Western Kentucky to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Sam Houston State QB Landyn Locke vs. Western Kentucky: 240.5 Pass Yards

• The sophomore topped the 300-yard mark in each of the first three games, including a 335-yard performance against Troy.
• With that said, he didn’t pass the 200-yard ledger in each of the past two losses, getting held to a season-low 138 yards against Liberty.
• Western Kentucky has allowed only one QB to throw for at least 241 yards this campaign, giving up 271 to Indiana’s Josh Hoover.
• The Bearkats sit 110th in EPA/dropback and are facing a WKU defense that ranks 61st — its strongest defensive metric.  

Add Landyn Locke + Sam Houston to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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The Bearkats have yet to beat the Hilltoppers in three tries as Conference USA rivals. Can Sam Houston State break through at home, or will Western Kentucky pick up its second consecutive league victory?

Don’t wait until lock — make your Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston State picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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