The No. 4 seed Vanderbilt Commodores and No. 1 seed Florida Gators square off in a semifinal game on Saturday to tip off day four of the SEC Tournament.
Vanderbilt knocked off in-state rival Tennessee in the quarterfinals, while Florida defeated Kentucky for the third time this season with its 12th straight win. Saturday’s contest is the first of two SEC semifinals and tips off at 1:00 p.m. ET at Bridgestone Arena, aired on ESPN. Florida is favored by 6.5 points.
Below, we’ll break down our Vanderbilt vs. Florida prediction and picks for Saturday afternoon’s game. Make your college basketball picks on PrizePicks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
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Vanderbilt vs. Florida Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Vanderbilt and Florida met in January in Nashville, with Florida winning 98-94. The teams last met in the SEC Tournament in 2021, with Florida winning the second-round game by six points.
Per Joe Lunardi of ESPN’s bracketology, the Gators track to enter the SEC Tournament as a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year, while Vanderbilt is solidly a five seed.
The winner of Saturday’s semifinal moves on to the championship game against the winner of Ole Miss and Arkansas.
Vanderbilt vs. Florida Spread, Over/Under
The Gators enter Saturday’s semifinal SEC Tournament game as 6.5-point favorites, returning a 1.28x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win.
The Commodores are underdogs with a 3.7x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: Florida Gators -6.5
- Over/Under: 160.5
- Game Winner Payout: Vanderbilt 3.7x | Florida 1.28x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Vanderbilt vs. Florida Prediction on Spread – 3/14/26
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your SEC Tournament Vanderbilt vs. Florida college basketball prediction on the spread for Saturday, March 14 on PrizePicks.
- Florida is looking to advance to its 13th SEC Tournament final and second in a row, while Vanderbilt is looking for its third championship game berth — the last being 2012, when they won the SEC title.
- Vanderbilt is 17-15 against the spread and 3-3 ATS as an underdog. The Commodores covered in each of the last two games, both vs. Tennessee, after failing to cover in four of the previous five.
- Per KenPom, Vanderbilt is ranked 12th in the country overall, holding an offensive rating of 125.6 (eighth) and a defensive rating of 99.1 (28th).
- The Commodores score 86.6 points per game, 14th in the nation and sixth in the SEC, while their defense allows 74.9 PPG, fourth in the SEC.
- Florida is also 17-15 ATS, tied with Vanderbilt. The Gators didn't cover vs. Kentucky as 10.5-point favorites but have covered in 14 of their last 18.
- KenPom ranks Florida fourth in the nation, including an offensive rating of 125.5 (11th) and a defensive rating of 90.3 (fourth).
- Florida leads Division I in rebounds per game (45.7) and average scoring margin (14.7).
- Florida C Rueben Chinyelu leads the country in rebounds per game (11.7).
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Make #22 Vanderbilt vs. #4 Florida Picks on PrizePicks
Can Vanderbilt upset the top-seeded Gators and improve their NCAA seeding, or will Florida continue its winning streak and move one step closer to defending their SEC title?
You can make your Vanderbilt vs Florida picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
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