The No. 4 seed Vanderbilt Commodores and the No. 3 seed Arkansas Razorbacks square off in the SEC Championship on Sunday, March 15, at 1:00 p.m. ET, televised by ESPN. Vanderbilt knocked off the No. 1 seed and defending national champion Florida in the semifinals, while Arkansas ended the No. 15 seed Ole Miss’ Cinderella run.
Below, we’ll break down our Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas prediction and picks for Sunday afternoon’s title game.
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Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Vanderbilt and Arkansas met for a January bout in Fayetteville, with Arkansas winning by 25. The teams last met for the SEC Tournament in 2024, and Arkansas won the first-round game in OT.
The Commodores are looking for their third SEC Tournament title and first since 2012, while Arkansas’s lone tourney title was in 2000. The Razorbacks have lost in the SEC Championship six times, compared to Vandy's 2-0 record in the final.
Per Joe Lunardi of ESPN’s Bracketology, Vanderbilt moved from a No. 5 seed to a No. 4 seed with its win over Florida. Arkansas is currently listed as a No. 5 seed for next week’s NCAA Tournament.
Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas Spread, Over/Under
Vanderbilt enters Saturday’s SEC Tournament title game as a 2.5-point favorite, returning a 1.66x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win.
The Razorbacks are underdogs with a 2.22x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: Vanderbilt Commodores -2.5
- Over/Under: 164.5
- Game Winner Payout: Vanderbilt 1.66x | Arkansas 2.22x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas Prediction on Spread for SEC Championship – 3/15/26
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your SEC Tournament Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas college basketball prediction on the spread for Sunday, March 15, on PrizePicks.
- Vanderbilt is 18-15 against the spread this season. The Commodores covered their last three games, all as underdogs, two vs. Tennessee, and as a 6.5-point dog vs. Florida on Saturday.
- The Commodores are 14-12 ATS as a favorite, the fourth-best mark in the conference.
- Per KenPom, Vanderbilt is rated 12th in the country, with an offensive rating of 127.3 (sixth) and a 99.2 defensive rating (29th).
- The Commodores score 86.7 points per game, which ranks 14th nationally and sixth in the SEC, while the defense allows 74.9 points per game (fourth in the SEC).
- Arkansas is an SEC-best 21-12 (63.6%) against the spread, despite not covering in either SEC Tournament game.
- The Razorbacks are also an SEC-best 15-7 (68.2%) against the spread as a favorite but will be an underdog vs. Vanderbilt. Arkansas is 6-5 ATS as an underdog in the 2025-26 campaign.
- Per KenPom, Arkansas ranks 17th in efficiency, with an offensive rating of 127.6 (fifth) and a defensive rating of 102.1 (51st).
- Arkansas is second in the SEC and third nationally, averaging 90.1 points per game. But the defense is on the other end of the spectrum, allowing 80.2 points per game (14th in the SEC).
Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas Picks for PrizePicks Today: 3/15/26
Here are top Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas picks to target for Sunday, March 15, on PrizePicks. Today’s college basketball picks for PrizePicks are headlined by Vanderbilt G Tyler Tanner and Arkansas G Darius Acuff Jr.
Vanderbilt G Tyler Tanner vs. Arkansas Projection: 22.5 Points
- Vanderbilt G Tyler Tanner is averaging 19.2 points per game, ranking fifth in the SEC.
- In his last 14 appearances, Tanner posted 22.1 PPG, which includes eight 20-point games. He racked up a career-high 37 points on February 7 vs. Oklahoma.
- His efficient shooting of 50.0% from the field (sixth in the SEC) plays a major role in Tanner’s scoring success.
- Vandy's star guard scored 11 points on 3-of-10 shooting (30.0%) when the teams met earlier this season. This was tied for his second-lowest point total of the season.
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Arkansas G Darius Acuff Jr. vs. Vanderbilt Projection: 23.5 Points
- The SEC Player of the Year and Freshman of the Year, Darius Acuff Jr., leads the SEC with 22.7 PPG (ninth nationally).
- Acuff is just the third player to win both awards from the coaches and media votes, joining Anthony Davis (2012) and Brandon Miller (2023).
- The Razorback freshman also leads the conference with 6.4 assists per game, totaling at least 5 assists in 16 consecutive games.
- Over his past 13 games, Acuff averaged 27.2 PPG, shooting 48.7% from the field. He reached at least 17 points in every game, featuring a career-high 49 points in a double OT loss vs. Alabama on February 18.
Make Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas Picks on PrizePicks
Can Vanderbilt follow up its big upset of No. 1 seed Florida and capture the school’s third tournament title? Or will Arkansas cut down the nets in Vanderbilt’s backyard, winning its first title since 2000? Catch the Vanderbilt-Arkansas showdown at 1:00 p.m. on ESPN.
You can make your Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
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