Valkyries vs. Mercury Prediction, Spread, WNBA Picks – Wednesday, July 29

In a battle that isn’t quite as exciting in late July as many expected when the season began, the Golden State Valkyries hit the road to take on the Phoenix Mercury on Wednesday night. The July 29 contest tips off at 10 p.m. ET on USA Network and CNBC, with Golden State entering as favorites and returning a 1.47x payout with a win, via PrizePicks.

It’s been a season to remember for the Valkyries, although it’s certainly been one to forget for their Wednesday foes. Can Phoenix find a way to defend home court and generate any sort of momentum by pulling off a midweek upset? 

Below, we'll break down our Valkyries vs. Mercury prediction and picks for Wednesday’s WNBA game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Valkyries vs. Mercury prediction on PrizePicks now.

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Valkyries vs. Mercury Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Wednesday, July 29

After bursting onto the scene as an expansion franchise a year ago, the Valkyries have already established themselves as one of the Association’s budding star organizations. Under head coach Natalie Nakase, they own a 19-8 record this season, good for second in the Western Conference.

Since dropping back-to-back games on June 19 and 21 to fall to 10-7 on the year, Golden State has caught fire and is 9-1 in that span. This is the best 3-point shooting team in the WNBA by volume, and an elite interior defense has the Valks’ opponents struggling to keep up with that blistering scoring pace.

Golden State has three players scoring in double figures this season, with F Gabby Williams’ 14.8 points per game leading the way. G Veronica Burton (11.9 PPG) isn’t totally outdone, however, as she’s been the club’s primary distributor and nets 5.5 assists each night. 

As the kids these days say, the Mercury’s fall-off needs to be studied. Just a year removed from a 27-17 campaign and a trip to the WNBA Finals, Nate Tibbetts’ crew is an ugly 10-18 and doesn’t seem to have any route to saving the season. 

Phoenix is just 5-5 in its last 10 but has won consecutive contests. The postseason isn’t in the cards right now, however, as evidenced by the team being a whopping 8.5 games out of the No. 4 seed out West.

G-F Kahleah Copper (20.5 PPG) is doing her best to keep the Mercury afloat, but there simply isn’t enough scoring punch on this year’s roster to get the job done. On the other end of the floor, Phoenix is a middling defensive group that could use some additional athleticism. The top three minute-getters on this squad have a combined average age of 34.3 years. 

This is the last of three meetings between these two teams in 2026. Golden State defeated Phoenix on May 10 and June 9 by a combined 22 points.

Valkyries vs. Mercury Spread, Over/Under – Wednesday, July 29

The Valkyries enter Wednesday’s game as 4.5-point road favorites against the Mercury, returning a 1.47x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.

Here are the full payouts for the Valkyries vs. Mercury game on PrizePicks.

Make your Valkyries vs. Mercury prediction on spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks — available in 36 states!

Payouts show potential returns on correct Team Picks predictions. A 2x payout returns $200 on a $100 entry. Lower multipliers reflect outcomes users are picking as more likely. Payouts are live as of writing and subject to change.

Valkyries vs. Mercury Injury Report for Wednesday, July 29

Let’s dive into the full Valkyries vs. Mercury injury report for Wednesday, July 29, via WNBA.com.

Golden State Valkyries Injury Report

• F Gabby Williams (reconditioning): Questionable

Phoenix Mercury Injury Report

• No injuries reported

Valkyries vs. Mercury Prediction on Spread – 7/29/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Valkyries vs. Mercury prediction on the spread for Wednesday, July 29’s game. 

• No team has a better cover percentage (60%) than the Valkyries when serving as road favorites this year. Their 3-2 against-the-spread record is miles better than the Mercury’s league-worst 0-4 ATS mark as home underdogs. 
• According to databallr, there’s a sizable gap between these two in net rating. The Valkyries’ +7.7 mark is second; the Mercury’s -4.2 is 10th. 
• As mentioned, no one takes (30.5) or makes (10.6) more 3-pointers than the Valks each time out. That could be a catastrophic matchup against a Mercury team that cedes the second-highest 3-point clip (37.0%).
• If you’re looking into first-half or quarter spreads, keep an eye on how the second quarter unfolds. Golden State scores the sixth-most PPG in that frame (21.3), whereas Phoenix allows the third-most (22.6).
• In addition to giving up the fewest points per shot at 1.054, Golden State’s 2-point defense (46.7%) is tops in the sport. Phoenix shoots a poor 50.8% inside the arc, good for just 10th leaguewide. 

Lock in your Valkyries vs. Mercury prediction on PrizePicks before tonight’s WNBA game.

Valkyries vs. Mercury Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 7/29/26

Here are the top Valkyries vs. Mercury picks to target on Wednesday, July 29. Today’s WNBA picks for PrizePicks include F Gabby Williams, G-F Kahleah Copper, and F Alyssa Thomas.

Valkyries F Gabby Williams vs. Mercury: 14.5 Points

• Williams’ per-game average of 14.8 points comes with a career-high 12.7 shot attempts each night. 
• The veteran forward is taking a personal best 5.2 3-pointers per game, reaching new heights by connecting on 34.3% of them.
• A back-to-back All-Star, Williams is also getting to the free throw line more in 2026 than ever (3.5 FTA/G).
• 43.1% of Williams’ points are of the unassisted variety, putting her in the 79th percentile. 

Add Gabby Williams to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Mercury G-F Kahleah Copper vs. Valkyries: 18 Points

• Copper is pouring in 20.5 PPG through 27 outings, including 21.5 in her last four contests.
• Although she isn’t faring well from beyond the arc, Copper is thriving near the basket. She’s made 72.4% of her shots from 0-3 feet and 49.2% in floater range (3-10 feet). 
• The standout wing boasts a 29.3% usage rate, sitting in the 96th percentile.
• Volume isn’t an issue for Copper, as she’s in the 92nd percentile or higher in attempts at all ranges of the floor and at the charity stripe.

Add Kahleah Copper to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Mercury F Alyssa Thomas vs. Valkyries: 31 Pts + Rebs + Asts

• Through 26 games, Thomas is producing a nightly PRA average of 29.7. That average is up to 30.6 in her last five. 
• The short midrange area is one of Thomas’ most effective areas for scoring, evidenced by her 48.6% mark from 3-10 feet.
• Thomas’ 16.8% defensive rebounding clip resides in the 82nd percentile. 
• On top of her 22.3% usage split and 35.3% on-ball rate, Thomas takes tremendous care of the ball. She owns a 2.38 assist-to-turnover ratio (88th percentile) on the year. 

Add Alyssa Thomas to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Golden State has been one of the WNBA’s hottest teams as of late and is looking to hunt down the Minnesota Lynx in the West standings. Could Phoenix, mired in a seemingly lost season, have something to say about that on Wednesday?

Don’t wait until tip-off — make your Valkyries vs. Mercury picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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