USF vs. UTSA Prediction, Spread, NCAAF Picks – Thursday, October 8

A pair of 4-1 squads link up in American Conference action as the South Florida Bulls visit the UTSA Roadrunners. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, October 8 at the Alamodome in San Antonio and will be televised nationally on ESPN.

USF suffered its first loss following a 4-0 start in a 17-13 home defeat to Temple as 5.5-point favorites. The Bulls were held to fewer than 19 points for the third time this season. UTSA won its conference opener last week, holding off Rice 16-14 as 12.5-point road favorites, and run into this one as 6.5-point favorites.

Below, we'll break down our USF vs. UTSA prediction and picks for Thursday's college football game, including the winner, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your USF vs. UTSA picks and predictions on PrizePicks now.

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USF vs. UTSA Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Thursday, October 8

The Roadrunners enter Thursday’s game as 6.5-point favorites against the Bulls. South Florida returns a 3.03x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the USF vs. UTSA game on PrizePicks. PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Make your USF vs. UTSA prediction on winner, over/under, and more on PrizePicks!

South Florida’s offense dropped 59 points against FCS quad Delaware State on September 19, but head coach Brian Hartline’s squad has scored 74 points in the four games against FBS teams.

In last week’s loss to Temple, the Bulls limited the Owls to 92 passing yards but surrendered the go-ahead 34-yard TD run with 3:08 remaining. USF ran 16 more plays than Temple while posting a negative EPA for the second straight week, according to Game on Paper.

UTSA is leaving the Lone Star State for the first time this season after squeezing past Rice last week. The Roadrunners dropped 59 points on Colorado State two weeks ago but managed only 1 TD against a Rice club that doesn’t own a win against an FBS program.

The running game has been UTSA’s priority, posting the 18th-best success rate in the country compared to being 106th passing-wise. The Roadrunners will have their hands full against this USF defense, which sits 20th in EPA/rush.

The Roadrunners aim to avenge a 55-23 blowout loss in Tampa to the Bulls last November, punctuated by a 31-point second quarter outburst from South Florida. Amazingly, UTSA ran 25 more scrimmage plays than USF, but the Bulls put up 10.1 yards per play.

USF vs. UTSA Prediction on Spread – 10/8/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our USF vs. UTSA pick against the spread for Thursday, October 8.

• All three of South Florida’s against-the-spread (ATS) losses came in the favorite role.
• The Bulls are 4-1 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season, including in their comeback win over Army in Week 2.
• The Roadrunners have failed to cover in both opportunities as a favorite against Colorado State and Rice.
• USF has faced two of the four worst passing offenses in the American Conference, with each averaging fewer than 150 yards per game. UTSA is posting 210.8.
• The Roadrunners are 2-3 ATS since last season as a conference favorite, including a pair of outright defeats in 2025 to Army and Temple.

Lock in your USF vs. UTSA prediction on PrizePicks.

USF vs. UTSA Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 10/8/26

Here are top USF vs. UTSA picks to target on Thursday, October 8. Today’s college football picks for PrizePicks include RB D.J. Crowther and QB Owen McCown.

USF RB D.J. Crowther vs. UTSA: 81.5 Rush Yards

• Crowther has topped the 100-yard rushing mark twice against Delaware State (101) and Bowling Green (143).
• UTSA’s defensive rushing success rate is 92nd nationally, and the group has allowed at least 82 rushing yards to two RBs.
• The former Dartmouth standout faces a Roadrunners defense ceding 199.4 yards per game, the ninth-highest figure in the country. 

Add D.J. Crowther + South Florida to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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UTSA QB Owen McCown vs. USF: 223.5 Pass Yards

• McCown’s top passing performance came against Colorado State, seeing him throw for 303 yards and 3 TDs on 30 attempts. USF has allowed at least 249 passing yards in two of the last three games.
• McCown’s passing projection sat at 245.5 in last year’s loss to South Florida. He finished with 200, his third-lowest outcome against an American foe since the start of 2025.
• USF’s defense owns the second-lowest EPA/dropback among American squads, ranking behind only UAB at -0.03.  

Add Owen McCown + UTSA to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Make USF vs. UTSA Picks on PrizePicks

Either the Bulls or Roadrunners will be the first American Conference team to win two league games tonight in San Antonio. Can South Florida rebound from last week’s loss, or will UTSA avenge the blowout to the Bulls last November?

Don’t wait until lock — make your USF vs. UTSA picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right. Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right.

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