Just over a year ago, the United States and Canada went toe-to-toe in an instant classic in the final of the inaugural 4 Nations Face-Off. On Sunday, the two countries will renew their rivalry in the men’s hockey gold medal game at the 2026 Winter Olympics.
The United States cruised to a 6-2 win against Slovakia in the semifinals, while Canada came from behind to defeat Finland 3-2. Now, the two hockey powerhouses will face off at 8:10 a.m. ET on Sunday morning from Milano Santagiulia Ice Arena in Milan, Italy, with the game available to watch on USA Network and streaming on Peacock.
Below, we'll break down our United States vs. Canada prediction and Olympic hockey picks for Sunday’s gold medal game clash. Make your hockey picks during the Winter Olympics on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right, including on winners, puck lines, and medal predictions.
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USA vs. Canada Prediction, Puck Line, Winner Payouts for Gold Medal Game
The United States enter Sunday's gold medal game as underdogs, returning a 1.96x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
Canada is the favorite with a 1.78x payout if they win and bring home the gold medal, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Puck Line: Canada -1.5
- Over/Under: 5.5
- Winner Payout: USA 1.96x | Canada 1.78x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
USA vs. Canada Prediction for Olympic Hockey Gold Medal Game
The United States turned in arguably its most complete performance against Slovakia on Friday. When Slovakia was caught in a badly-timed line change, the United States wasted little time scoring the first goal as D Zach Werenski uncorked a pass to C Dylan Larkin.
From there, the Americans raced out to a commanding 5-0 advantage with goals from RW Tage Thompson, LW Jack Hughes (twice), and C Jack Eichel in the first two periods.
Canada’s road to the gold medal game was a little more difficult. Their mettle was certainly tested when they fell behind 2-0 against Finland on Friday.
After D Shea Theodore tied the game earlier in the third period, Canada C Nathan MacKinnon ripped a one-timer past G Juuse Saros with just 35.2 seconds left. Canada would ultimately hang on for the heart-pounding victory.
Canada has a 4-1 all-time record against the United States at the Winter Olympics, including a 3-0 mark in medal-round games. Canada beat the United States 5-2 in the 2002 gold medal game and again in the 2010 gold medal game by a 3-2 decision in overtime. The last meeting took place in the 2014 semifinals, when Canada squeaked out a 1-0 win.
The two teams split their two matchups during the 4 Nations Face-Off last February. The United States will be looking to win its first gold medal since the “Miracle on Ice” triumph at Lake Placid at the 1980 Winter Olympics.
Here are some Olympic hockey stats to help you make your United States vs. Canada gold medal prediction on Sunday, February 22, in the 2026 Winter Olympics.
- The United States has averaged 4.8 goals per game throughout the Winter Olympics to Canada's 5.4.
- Canada C Connor McDavid leads all Olympic skaters in points (13) with two goals and 11 assists in five games. As a result, McDavid is the resounding favorite to win the Olympic Men’s Hockey MVP, with a 1.36x payout on PrizePicks.
- The status of Canada's Sidney Crosby remains up in the air as he continues to deal with a lower-body injury. Crosby suffered the injury against Czechia in the quarterfinals and missed Friday’s semifinal matchup vs. Finland.
- United States G Connor Hellebuyck leads all Olympic goaltenders in goals against average (1.23) and save percentage (.947). Hellebuyck stopped 22 of the 24 shots that he faced vs. Slovakia in the semifinals.
- Canada owns the most efficient power play at the Winter Olympics, scoring on 43.75% (7 of 16) of its opportunities. The Canadians scored two power play goals in Friday’s win vs. Finland.
- Meanwhile, the United States possesses the top penalty kill at the Winter Games. The Americans have yet to surrender a power play goal in 15 chances.
- The United States has registered the third-most penalty minutes (52) throughout the Olympics.
- United States D Quinn Hughes leads all Olympic defensemen in points (7) with a goal and 6 assists in five games. Hughes has tallied at least 1 point in every game thus far.
USA vs. Canada Picks for PrizePicks in Olympic Gold Medal Match
Here are the top United States vs. Canada picks to target in the men's hockey gold medal game for Sunday, February 22, on PrizePicks.
Our top player picks to target for goals and points are headlined by United States LW Jack Hughes and Canada LW Macklin Celebrini.
United States LW Jack Hughes: 0.5 Goals
- The New Jersey Devils star tallied 2 goals in the United States’ 6-2 win vs. Slovakia in the semifinals.
- Hughes has registered 6 points with 3 goals and 3 assists in five games throughout the Winter Olympics.
- The American forward skates on the LW on a line with Thompson and Larkin, per Daily Faceoff.
- Hughes is tied for third in plus/minus rating (+7) among all Olympic skaters.
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Canada LW Macklin Celebrini: 4.5 Shots on Goal
- The San Jose Sharks phenom leads all Olympic skaters in goals (5).
- Celebrini has racked up at least 5 shots on goal in one of his last five games throughout the Winter Games.
- The 2024 first-overall pick plays on Canada’s top line with McDavid and RW Tom Wilson.
- Celebrini logged 8 shots on goal vs. Finland in Friday’s semifinal matchup.
Make United States vs. Canada Olympic Hockey Picks on PrizePicks
International bragging rights are on the line when the United States takes on Canada in Sunday’s gold medal game at the 2026 Winter Olympics.
Canada is the current gold medal favorite, boasting a loaded roster of NHL superstars, including three-time NHL MVP Connor McDavid and second-year standout Macklin Celebrini. Meanwhile, the United States is led by three-time NHL leading scorer Auston Matthews and 2024 Norris Trophy winner Quinn Hughes.
You can make your Olympic hockey picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make your predictions on winners, spreads, medal winners, and more — now available in 34 states.
Stick around with the Playbook for continued Olympic predictions, picks, and news.
