U.S. Open Picks, Winner Predictions: Can Schauffele Win at Shinnecock?

The U.S. Open has always been the toughest major to play in golf — a true test of survival, as some have called it. It's the only major where the winning score is consistently in single digits, and occasionally at par or worse. 

Now take an always-difficult U.S. Open and put it at the links-style Shinnecock Hills on Long Island, and you enter another stratosphere for the 2026 tournament.

World No. 1 and tournament favorite Scottie Scheffler tees it up in his first attempt at completing the career Grand Slam, which Rory McIlroy — who is the second favorite this weekend — did in his 11th attempt at the 2025 Masters. 

Let's break down our U.S. Open picks and best PGA predictions on PrizePicks this week, including picks for potential winners or top-10 finishers in the event.

Make your 2026 U.S. Open golf picks — including winners & Top 10s— on PrizePicks now!

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U.S. Open Picks, Predictions, & Winner Payouts for PGA This Week

Shinnecock Hills is hosting the U.S. Open for the sixth time in course history. The previous four times, dating back to 1986, resulted in winning scores of -1, E, -4, +1 — the last one being Brooks Koepka’s triumph in 2018. 

Golfers need driving accuracy to avoid penal rough, long iron play to hit greens on a 7,400-yard course, and good touch around the undulating, fast, and frustrating greens. Weather projections have gusts off the Atlantic Ocean and Bay at up to 25 MPH, which could impact play.

Scottie Scheffler is the favorite to win the 2026 U.S. Open as we enter Thursday’s Round 1. 

Scheffler has two Masters titles and won the 2025 PGA Championship and Open Championship, leaving just the U.S. Open title. He will be joined by 6-time major winner Rory McIlroy, 2022 U.S. Open Champion Matt Fitzpatrick, and 2021 U.S. Open Champion Jon Rahm as the favorites to win this weekend’s U.S. Open Golf Championship.

As for the U.S. Open purse, the total is set at a record-setting total of at least $21.5 million. The winner will earn $4.3M

Here are the top 10 favorites to win the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills, via PrizePicks Team Picks, including their payouts if you predict them to win the tournament. 

Payouts from TeamPicks are live as of publishing, but are subject to change.

2026 U.S. Open Picks, Winner Predictions This Week

Here are four golfers to consider for your 2026 U.S. Open picks on PrizePicks Team Picks, including outright winners and Top 10 and 20 finishes. 

All payouts are via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can make your golf picks to win real money in 35 states, including California, Texas, and New York.

Xander Schauffele – U.S. Open Prediction

Xander Schauffele U.S. Open Winner Payout: 14.28x (No 1.28x)

Top 10 Payout: Yes 2.63 | No 1.44x

• Xander Schauffele has 19 top-10 finishes in 36 career majors, which is a 57.8% hit rate. 
• He has the two wins, but neither one was a U.S. Open. 
• That said, Schauffele has participated in nine career U.S. Opens and finished in the top 15 all nine times. He was tied for sixth here in 2018.
• The two-time major winner checks all the boxes as you'd expect. He is ninth in shots gained overall, 14th off the tee, 30th on approach, and 47th in putting. 
• He's 31st in approaches from over 200 and 13th in scrambling. At some point, Schauffele is going to get his U.S. Open win. Why not now? 

Pick Xander Schauffele to win the 2026 U.S. Open on PrizePicks

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Tommy Fleetwood – U.S. Open Prediction

Tommy Fleetwood U.S. Open Winner Payout:  Yes 16.66x

Top 10 Payout:  Yes 2.94x | No 1.36x

• Tommy Fleetwood has won only one event on U.S. soil, and it was a 30-golfer event. But this links-style course is more of an Open you'd see over in the United Kingdom, especially with the wind coming off the Atlantic Ocean and bay and the deep fescue rough that you'd see in Scotland.
• The Englishman finished runner-up at Shinnecock Hills to Brooks Koepka in 2018, firing a final-round 63 to almost catch Koepka.
• We mention Shinnecock being more like an Open Championship course. Well, Fleetwood has three top 10s at the Open, including Royal Portrush, St. Andrews, and Royal Liverpool — all of which have characteristics you'll see at Shinnecock.
• Fleetwood leads the Tour in shots gained around the green and is sixth in driving accuracy, two big metrics golfers will need on this course. He is also eighth on tour in total shots gained, 10th tee-to-green, and 17th on approach from over 200 yards. 
• The 2026 FedExCup champion has gained strokes off the tee in eight straight and 12 of 13 events this year and gained strokes overall in 11 of 13 events.

Pick Tommy Fleetwood to win the 2026 U.S. Open on PrizePicks

Tyrrell Hatton – U.S. Open Prediction

Tyrrell Hatton U.S. Open Winner Payout:  Yes 33.33x 

Top 10 Payout:  Yes 4.76x | No 1.16x

• Having Tyrrell Hatton on your major card isn't for the faint of heart. He has had very good results, but can also drive you mad with some of the crooked numbers he has put up to take him out of contention. 
• Another Englishman like Fleetwood, Hatton has had success in the U.S. Opens, finishing fourth at a very tough Oakmont track last year and sixth in 2018, right here at Shinnecock. 
• He also finished third at the Masters, his second top-10 in three years there. 
• Over the last six majors (dating back to the 2025 Masters), Hatton is second in shots gained, tee-to-green, second in ball striking, and seventh in overall shots gained.
• While playing over on the LIV Tour, he just won the Spain event and has three other top-10 finishes. 
• His irons have been great, gaining shots on approach in eight of 11 events this season, including 1.27 strokes when missing the cut at the PGA Championship.

Pick Tyrrell Hatton to win the 2026 U.S. Open on PrizePicks

Hideki Matsuyama U.S. Open Prediction

Hideki Matsuyama U.S. Open Winner Payout:  Yes 33.33x 

Top 20 Payout: Yes 3.44x | No 1.28x

• The former Masters champion has finished in the top 10 of two of his past four U.S. Open starts, finishing fourth at The Country Club in 2022 and sixth at Pinehurst in 2024.
• Matsuyama also has a runner-up finish in 2017 at Erin Hills, a similar links-style course in Wisconsin.
• Short game and work around the green are going to be paramount this week at Shinnecock. Matsuyama is 27th in shots-gained scrambling, fourth on approach from 75-100 yards, and fifth from over 100 yards. 
• "Deki" finished 12th at the Masters and 26th last month at the PGA Championship. 

Pick Hideki Matsuyama to win the 2026 U.S. Open on PrizePicks

Make 2026 U.S. Open Golf Picks on PrizePicks

Can world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler complete the career Grand Slam with a win at Shinnecock? Or will Englishmen Tommy Fleetwood and Tyrrell Hatton use their links experience to take home a first major?

You can make 2026 U.S. Open golf picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. 

With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.

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