Uruguay vs. Spain Prediction, Picks, Lineups for World Cup 2026

Uruguay vs. Spain will decide the winner of Group H at World Cup 2026 when the teams kick off at Guadalajara Stadium at 8:00 p.m. ET on Friday, June 26, with the match airing live on FOX.

‍Spain can clinch Group H with a victory, while a draw would make things interesting depending on Cape Verde’s result. Uruguay would be eliminated from the tournament with a defeat, while a draw could possibly see them advance.

An opening-match draw for Spain made some people take pause, but they still come into Friday’s match as favorites on PrizePicks Team Picks, returning a 1.63x payout should they win.

Below, we’ll break down our Uruguay vs. Spain prediction and picks for today’s World Cup match, including the spread, total goals, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

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Uruguay vs. Spain Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Friday, June 26

How to watch Uruguay vs. Spain: FOX (English) | Peacock and Telemundo (Spanish)

Kickoff Time: 8:00 p.m. ET

Venue: Guadalajara Stadium, Zapopan, Mexico

Group: Group H

Spain are still one of the favorites to win World Cup 2026, possessing a 6.25x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks. They’ll have an opportunity to take a major step towards achieving that goal with victory on Friday.

Winning Group H is critical for La Roja, as the team who finishes second in the group would face Argentina in the round of 32. Victory would ensure they play the runner-up of Group J instead, which would be either Austria or Algeria.

First they must get past Uruguay, who has taken a draw in both their first two fixtures. But Uruguay is dealing with issues both on and off the pitch.

Rumors on Thursday indicated a revolt inside the locker room, led by captain CM Fede Valverde, against manager Marcelo Bielsa regarding their training load and tactics. He reportedly responded by accusing them of trying to get him sacked. Needless to say, things aren’t going great.

After not having a single warm-up match ahead of World Cup 2026, Uruguay has looked disorganized defensively and their attack has lacked any sign of cohesion. Bielsa’s high-pressure style requires players to be on the same page, but it’s also something that leaves them vulnerable to Spain. 

Uruguay presses at the fourth-highest depth of any nation in the World Cup. Few midfields in the world are as press-resistant as theirs, featuring the likes of Rodri, Pedri, and Dani Olmo. If anything, playing that sort of style could make it easier for Spain to find more goals.

Cape Verde frustrated Spain without Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams on the pitch, as they forced the Spaniards to find a way through their low block. If given space to operate, they can be lethal in attack, as we saw in their 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia.

With RW Yamal on the pitch from the outset, Spain’s attack looked unlocked. ST Mikel Oyarzabal bagged a brace as they took a 3-0 lead within 25 minutes and cruised to the easy victory. 

Spain plays the highest line of any nation, and it’s led to 25 high turnovers forced. That could bode poorly for Uruguay who, despite the third-highest possession rate, are converting just 6.82% of their shots and have created just 4 big chances through two matches.

If Uruguay can’t find a way to win the ball back or get through Spain’s press, they could very well be heading home tomorrow — and Bielsa could be looking for his next job.

Uruguay vs. Spain: Favorite to Win, Spread, Total Goals – Friday, June 26

Spain enters Friday’s match as strong favorites, returning a 1.63x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks. Meanwhile Uruguay will look to utilize their possession-based attack to make Spain chase the ball for longer periods of time.

Here are the full payouts for the Uruguay vs. Spain match on PrizePicks.

• Winner Payout: Uruguay – 5.26x | Tie – 3.33x | Spain – 1.63x
• Spread: Spain -1.5 – 2.85x Payout 
• Total Goals: 2.5 – Over 2.12x | Under 1.66x
• Both Teams to Score: Yes 2.08x | No 1.69x

Payouts show potential returns on correct Team Picks predictions. A 2x payout returns $200 on a $100 entry. Lower multipliers reflect outcomes users are picking as more likely. Payouts are live as of writing and subject to change.

Make your Uruguay vs. Spain spread or goals on PrizePicks Team Picks — available in 35 states!

Uruguay vs. Spain Prediction on Total Goals for World Cup 2026

Here are the key stats and trends for Uruguay vs. Spain before making your World Cup 2026 predictions on PrizePicks.

• Both Uruguay and Spain want to possess the ball, meaning neither may sit back and defend. Per FotMob, the two nations both rank top-three in average possession and in shots attempted per match.  
• Spain’s 347 passes per match in the final third are the most of any nation, and only Canada has averaged touches inside the penalty box.
• Both nations also average better than 2 xG per match, ranking inside the top eight nations. It's worth noting that both teams are also underperforming their xG, with Spain sitting at -0.20 goals vs. xG per 90 and Uruguay at -0.52. They’ve also done this while facing two nations that have sat deep and countered. 
• Spain’s 7.5 shots on target per 90 minutes lead the tournament despite Yamal missing much of the first match.
• Both countries excel at forcing high turnovers and rank in the top four in starting distance from goal. This can lead to lots of odd-man counterattacks and open spaces for the likes of Yamal and Uruguayan ST Darwin Núñez to attack into. 
• A draw does Uruguay little good, as they can’t win the group and could have to rely on other results to get through in third place. If Spain gets a lead, then Uruguay would have to push forward looking for goals. 

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Uruguay vs. Spain Lineups for World Cup 2026 – Friday, June 26

Here are the projected Uruguay vs. Spain lineups for today's World Cup match. Lineups are not official and are based on historical data.

Uruguay Lineup vs. Spain Today

Projected Formation: 4-3-3

• Goalkeeper: Fernando Muslera
• Defense: Guillermo Varela, Mathías Olivera, Sebastián Cáceres, Juan Manuel Sanabria
• Midfield: Rodrigo Bentancur, Manuel Ugarte, Fede Valverde
• Forwards: Agustín Canobbio, Darwin Núñez, Maxi Araújo

Spain Lineup vs. Uruguay Today

Projected Formation: 4-3-3

• Goalkeeper: Unai Simón
• Defense: Pedro Porro, Pau Cubarsí, Aymeric Laporte, Marc Cururella
• Midfield: Rodri, Pedri, Dani Olmo
• Forwards: Lamine Yamal, Mikel Oyarzabal, Nico Williams

Uruguay vs. Spain Picks, Player Stats for World Cup: 6/26/26

Here are the top Uruguay vs. Spain player picks to target on Friday, Jun 26. Today’s World Cup 2026 picks are headlined by Lamine Yamal and Juan Manuel Sanabria.

Spain RW Lamine Yamal vs. Uruguay: 1.5 Shots (Discounted from 3.5) 

• Lamine Yamal took 2 shots in limited minutes off the bench vs. Cape Verde and followed that up with 5 shots against Saudi Arabia before being subbed off at halftime.
• Four of Yamal’s 5 shots came from outside the box as he cut inside onto his left foot, showing he’s not afraid to fire from anywhere. 
• Yamal opened the scoring after 10 minutes, as he punched home a low cross from close range after making a great run at the back post. 
• In his last 16 competitive starts for Spain, Yamal has taken 2+ shots on 14 occasions. He's averaged 3.5 shots per outing in those 16 matches. 
• Yamal’s shot total is discounted today via PrizePicks. Discounts lower a player projection for a limited time, making the More side easier to hit than the original number.

Combine Spain + Lamine Yamal World Cup picks for bigger payouts on PrizePicks.

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Uruguay LB Juan Manuel Sanabria vs. Spain: 3.5 Crosses 

• Juan Manuel Sanabria has attempted 13 crosses through Uruguay’s first two matches, with 6 against Saudi Arabia and 7 against Cape Verde.
• Uruguay has attempted 26.5 crosses per match, more than any other nation in the tournament. 
• Sanabria has 4+ crosses in four of his last five matches for Uruguay in which he’s played at least 45 minutes. 
• He splits corner kick duties for Uruguay, which may elevate his crossing total. This could especially be true if Uruguay is chasing the match in the second half.

Combine Uruguay + Juan Manuel Sanabria World Cup picks for bigger payouts on PrizePicks.

Make Your Uruguay vs. Spain Prediction for World Cup on PrizePicks

Spain will be looking to claim top spot in Group H, while Uruguay is hoping to avoid an embarrassing elimination in the group stage. Will the off-pitch issues plaguing the Uruguayan side prevent them from finding a way to upset La Roja?

Don’t wait until lock. Make your Uruguay vs. Spain picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right on every World Cup game.

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