The NCAA Tournament gets underway on Tuesday night in Dayton, OH. The first of four play-in games features a battle of No. 16 seeds in UMBC and Howard in the Midwest Region, with the winner advancing in the bracket to face No. 1 seed Michigan on Thursday.
The UMBC Retrievers went 14-2 in American East action this season, then swept the conference tournament to return to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since shocking the world with an upset of No. 1 seed Virginia in 2018.
Howard went 11-3 in the MEAC to earn the top seed, then beat NC Central to earn the automatic bid to the dance. The Bison are 1.5-point favorites tonight, per PrizePicks Team Picks.
Tuesday’s UMBC-Howard contest is the first of two NCAA Tournament play-in games on Tuesday and tips off at 6:40 p.m. at UD Arena, televised by truTV.
Below, we’ll break down our UMBC vs. Howard prediction on the spread for Tuesday night’s game. Make your CBB picks on PrizePicks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
{{nba_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
UMBC vs. Howard Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
UMBC enters on a 12-game winning streak and is making its third all-time tournament appearance. The Retrievers lost as a No. 15 seed in their debut in 2008, followed by becoming the first No. 16 seed to knock off a No. 1 seed in 2018. UMBC has never played in the play-in game. Overall, the American East has nine NCAA Tournament wins.
Howard is making its third NCAA Tournament appearance in its last four years and fifth in program history. The Bison are 0-4 all-time in the tourney, losing their lone play-in game in 2024 to Wagner. The MEAC has seven NCAA Tournament wins, including three No. 15 seed upsets of No. 2 seeds.
UMBC vs. Howard Spread, Over/Under
UMBC enters Tuesday’s NCAA Tournament favored with a 1.88x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win.
Howard is the underdog with a 1.92x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: Howard Bison -1.5
- Over/Under: 141.5
- Game Winner Payout: UMBC 1.88x | Howard 1.92x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
{{nba_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
UMBC vs. Howard Prediction on Spread for NCAA Tournament – 3/17/26
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your NCAA Tournament UMBC vs. Howard college basketball prediction on the spread for Tuesday, March 17, on PrizePicks.
- UMBC was 19-11 against the spread this season. The cover percentage (63.3%) was the best among American East schools and the 23rd in the country.
- The Retrievers have covered in six straight and in 11 of 12 during their current 12-game winning streak.
- As a favorite this season, the American East champs are 14-7 ATS, 13th-best among teams with at least 10 games as a favorite.
- Per KenPom, UMBC is rated 185th in the country, with an offensive rating of 108.2 (183rd) and a defensive rating of 109.9 (192nd).
- UMBC led the American East in both PPG (76.2) and fewest points allowed (67.0). The 67.0 PPG allowed is 29th-best in the nation.
- Much like UMBC, Howard led its conference in PPG (77.5) and allowed the fewest points (67.8). The 67.8 PPG allowed is 40th in the nation.
- Howard is the best cover percentage team in the country, going 20-8-1 against the number (71.4%) this season.
- The Bison did not cover in the MEAC Championship game vs. NC Central but did cover in the previous seven games.
- Howard is 6-2-1 against the number as an underdog, which includes a cover vs. top-ranked Duke (+43.5).
- According to KenPom, the Bison are rated 207th in the country, with an offensive rating of 103.1 (283rd) and a defensive rating of 106.3 (117th).
Make UMBC vs. Howard Picks on PrizePicks
Can UMBC bring back the magic from 2018? Or will Howard win its first-ever NCAA Tournament game? The UMBC-Howard NCAA Tournament game is at 6:40 p.m. on truTV.
You can make your UMBC vs. Howard picks and NCAA Tournament projections on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
Keep tabs on the Playbook for continued college basketball predictions, picks, and news.
