UMass vs. Rutgers Prediction, Pick for College Football – Thursday, September 3

College football Week 1 kicks off on Thursday night, as we get a matchup between the UMass Minutemen vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Thursday, September 3, at 6:00 p.m. ET on FOX.

Although UMass is a Group of Six team and Rutgers is in the Big Ten, this game is about as far away as you can get from College Football Playoff implications. These teams had a combined five wins last year — all coming from Rutgers.

It's projected to be a cakewalk matchup for the Scarlet Knights to open the season. Even as one of the lowest-ranked teams in the Big Ten, Rutgers enters as a massive 30.5-point favorite on the spread vs. UMass with a 2.04x payout if they cover.

Below, we’ll break down our UMass vs. Rutgers prediction and pick for Thursday night Week 1 in college football, including the spread, over/under, and player picks.

Make your UMass vs. Rutgers picks on PrizePicks now! 

{{cfb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

UMass vs. Rutgers Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Thursday College Football

Let’s call a spade a spade: UMass was not only the worst team in Division 1 college football last year, but it might have been one of the worst college football teams of all time.

They went 0-12, scored the fewest points per game in the FBS (11.1), and allowed the most points (38.6). They lost 10 games by two or more possessions, and their only loss by less than a touchdown was to FCS program Bryant.

UMass head coach Joe Harasymiak completely overhauled the roster, bringing in 56 new players, including 30 transfers and 26 freshmen.

One of UMass’ most notable transfers is QB William Watson III from Virginia Tech, who is expected to start at QB. “Pop” may bring stability to a position that struggled last year. He has an above-average football IQ, and his athleticism allows him to scramble around the pocket.

Watson doesn’t have a cannon for an arm, but his strength as a passer is accuracy and ball placement.

The Minutemen also brought in WR Joseph Griffin Jr., who has the potential to become a top pass catcher in this offense. He has Power Four experience with two years at Boston College and one at Wisconsin. When given a chance, he was a playmaker, averaging 13.3 yards per catch.

In 2025, Rutgers had a strong start, going 3-0, and outscoring its opponents 139-58. However, those wins came against Ohio, Miami (Ohio), and FCS program Norfolk State; as the Scarlet Knights entered Big Ten play, reality set in. They finished with a 2-7 conference record, and their wins were against Maryland, who were 1-8 in the conference, and Purdue, who were 0-9.

Rutgers showed they can put up points last season, averaging 25.8 per game. Their 255.6 passing yards per game ranked 30th in the country.

QB Athan Kaliakmanis left to go pro, and now Rutgers has Boston College transfer Dylan Lonergan, who threw for 2,025 yards, 12 TDs, 5 INTs, and an impressive 66.9% completion rate in ten games last season.

The high volume of passing stemmed from the Scarlet Knights’ tendency to play from behind. Rutgers had one of the worst defenses in the country last year, ranking 121st in points allowed per game (33.8) and 129th in yards allowed per game (452.6). 

Rutgers brought in former South Dakota head coach Travis Johansen to reshape the defense. Prior to being named head coach, he served as South Dakota’s defensive coordinator, where he helped produce a top-ten scoring FCS defense in 2024.

Make your UMass vs. Rutgers prediction on PrizePicks — including the spread and total!

UMass Spread, Over/Under for Week 1 - Thursday, September 3

Here are the full payouts for Rutgers vs. UMass on PrizePicks Team Picks, including for each team to win, spread, and the over/under. Rutgers enters as a massive -30.5-point favorite on the spread.

UMass played three non-conference games vs. Power Four teams in 2025, losing by an average of 36 points in those games.

Make your UMass vs. Rutgers prediction on the spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

{{cfb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Rutgers vs. UMass Prediction on Over/Under for Thursday, September 3

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Rutgers vs. UMass prediction on the over/under for the season opener for both teams on Thursday, September 3.

• Despite UMass’ bottom-barrel offense, the total went over in 9 of their 12 games last season, with their 75% over rate being the second-best in the country.
• The over hit in all three of Rutgers' non-conference matchups last year.
• With Rutgers implementing a new defensive scheme and UMass returning just four starters on defense, it might take some time for these two defensive units to get in sync due to substantial changes.
• Neither defense forced many turnovers last year. UMass ranked 129th (0.6) and Rutgers ranked 116th (0.8) in takeaways per game.
• Last year, Rutgers ranked 104th (87.76%) and UMass 109th (88.24%) in opponent red-zone scoring rate — a good sign when either team is able to get inside the 20-yard line.
• Expect the Minutemen to move quickly, as they ranked 16th last season in seconds per play (23.6). This could set the tone for a fast-paced game, leading to more possessions for both teams.

Lock in your UMass vs. Rutgers prediction on PrizePicks before today’s college football game.

Rutgers vs. UMass Picks, Player Stats for College Football Today

Here are the top UMass vs. Rutgers picks to target for college football on Thursday, September 3. Today’s CFB picks for PrizePicks include both teams' signal callers: Rutgers QB Dylan Lonergan and UMass QB William Watson Jr.

Rutgers QB Dylan Lonergan vs. UMass: 228.5 Pass Yards

• Last season at Boston College, Lonergan threw for more than 228 yards in five of the six games where he made more than 20 pass attempts.
• Rutgers averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game in 2025 (66th).
• Lonergan’s 66.9% completion percentage last season ranked 27th in the nation.
• Last season, UMass allowed the highest completion rate in the country (70.9%).
• The Minutemen were getting torched in the secondary last season, ranking 129th in yards allowed per pass attempt (8.9).
• What could help Lonergan excel this season is that he has a highly coveted pass catcher. Rutgers WR KJ Duff has been named to the Biletnikoff Award Watch List and On3’s Preseason All-American Third Team.

Add Dylan Lonergan to your PrizePicks college football picks now!

{{cfb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

UMass QB William Watson III vs. Rutgers: 0.5 Pass TDs

• With Rutgers installing a new defensive system that has not yet been used in a live game, it may take some time to adjust.
• That could be tough against Watson’s athleticism and ability to scramble to evade defenders.
• The Scarlet Knights gave up 1.9 passing touchdowns allowed per game last year, ranking 116th.
• Rutgers also ranked an abysmal 134th in expected points added per pass allowed, per Game on Paper.
• Watson has a dynamic wide receiver in Wisconsin transfer Joseph Griffin Jr., who averages 13.3 yards on 44 catches through three seasons. At 6'4", he could be Watson’s go-to target in the red zone.
• Rutgers struggled to stop big plays through the air last year, ranking 122nd in yards per completion (13.2). 

Add William Watson III to your PrizePicks college football picks now!

Make Your Rutgers vs. UMass Prediction on PrizePicks

College football is officially back, as Rutgers vs. UMass kicks off a full course of games throughout the weekend. On Thursday night, UMass travels to New Jersey to take on Rutgers in a battle of two teams at the bottom of their respective conferences

Both programs had a terrible 2025 season, leading to huge changes to the roster and coaching staffs in hopes of a rebound year.

Don’t wait until kickoff at 6 p.m. ET— make your UMass vs. Rutgers picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick college football players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on college football game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 36 states.

Stay locked in on Playbook for daily college football predictions, picks, and news every day all the way through the 2026 College Football Playoff!