The UFC returns to Brazilon Saturday with UFC Rio, taking place at the Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro on October 11, with the main card scheduled for 7 p.m. ET.
This marks the UFC's 13th visit to the Brazilian city, featuring former lightweight champion Charles Oliveira vs. Mateusz Gamrot in what promises to be an electric five-round main event in the lightweight division.
We'll break down our expert UFC Rio predictions for Oliveira vs. Gamrot, plus picks for every main card fight on this special Fight Night from Brazil, including PrizePicks picks for every fight on the main card.
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The UFC Rio: Oliveira vs. Gamrot main card is set to start at 7 p.m. ET, with Oliveira vs. Gamrot expected to start around 9:30 p.m. ET, depending on when the other fights end.
UFC Rio Predictions, Preview for Main Card: Saturday, October 11
After stepping in on short notice to replace the injured Rafael Fiziev, Gamrot brings his relentless wrestling and submission game to face Oliveira, who holds the unique distinction of being the only fighter in UFC history to achieve 20 wins, 20 finishes, and 20 bonuses.
The Brazilian superstar enters with a perfect 17-0 record when fighting on home soil and aims to bounce back from his devastating first-round knockout loss to Ilia Topuria in June.
Co-headlining UFC Rio is former flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo vs. rising bantamweight contender Montel Jackson in a critical matchup that could determine the next title challenger.
Figueiredo enters on a two-fight losing streak, including a knee injury TKO to Cory Sandhagen, while Jackson rides a six-fight winning streak with knockdowns in seven consecutive UFC bouts.
The main card showcases the depth of Brazilian talent with Vicente Luque making his return to Brazil against welterweight newcomer Joel Alvarez, who makes his 170-pound debut after struggling with weight cuts at lightweight.
Rounding out the main card, rising Brazilian heavyweight Jhonata Diniz faces Portugal's undefeated Mario Pinto in what promises to be an explosive heavyweight clash between two dangerous finishers.
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Charles Oliveira vs. Mateusz Gamrot Prediction & Preview
Charles Oliveira (35-11) returns to the familiar warmth of Brazilian soil where he remains undefeated, riding an extraordinary 17-0 record in his home country. The former lightweight (155 lbs) champion faces his toughest test on home soil yet against wrestling phenom Matuesz Gamrot (25-3), who steps in on short notice after Rafael Fiziev's injury withdrawal.
"Do Bronx," brings an unmatched finishing ability to the octagon with 20 UFC stoppages in his legendary career. His submission mastery is unparalleled, holding the promotion record with 16 tapout victories alongside his devastating striking power.
However, coming off a brutal first-round knockout loss to Ilia Topuria in June for the lightweight title, questions linger about Oliveira's durability at age 35. The Brazilian icon has shown vulnerability in recent fights, getting dropped multiple times and struggling with elite wrestlers who can neutralize his ground game.
Gamrot enters as the perfect nightmare matchup for Oliveira's weaknesses, carrying a relentless wrestling foundation and cardio advantage. The 34-year-old Polish fighter has won four of his last five fights, showcasing improved striking to complement his suffocating grappling style.
"Gamer's" takedown accuracy and scrambling abilities present serious problems for Oliveira's submission-heavy offense. Unlike many opponents, Gamrot possesses the technical wrestling to avoid dangerous positions while maintaining consistent pressure over five rounds.
The key battle will be Oliveira's ability to keep the fight standing where his boxing and knockout power shine brightest. If Gamrot can impose his wrestling early and often, he possesses the tools to grind out a decision victory and potentially earn his first title shot.
Oliveira vs. Gamrot Projection: Gamrot 3.5 Takedowns
UFC Rio pick via the PrizePicks MMA board.
- Gamrot is a former ADCC world champion and wrestling national champion in Poland.
- “Gamer” averages 5.33 takedowns landed and attempts 14.80 takedowns per 15 minutes.
- The former KSW lightweight champion has landed 51 takedowns in his 11-fight UFC career.
- Oliveira has a takedown defense of 56% while being taken down 22 times in his UFC career.
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Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Montel Jackson Prediction & Preview
Former flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo (24-5-1) enters his toughest bantamweight (135 lbs) test to date, seeking to reclaim momentum after consecutive losses have put his title aspirations in jeopardy.
The Brazilian legend's championship pedigree and finishing ability remain dangerous weapons, but questions about his durability and adjustments to life at 135 pounds linger following back-to-back defeats to Petr Yan and Sandhagen.
His dangerous submission game and veteran experience provide constant threats that could neutralize Jackson's striking advantages in scrambles and exchanges. Figueiredo's crowd support in Rio creates an emotional boost that has historically elevated his performance in crucial moments throughout his career.
Montel Jackson (15-2) represents the new generation of bantamweight contenders, riding a six-fight winning streak that has propelled him into the division's top 15 rankings. The Wisconsin native's explosive boxing and knockout power have produced knockdowns in seven consecutive UFC bouts, showcasing timing and precision that could exploit any defensive lapses from the aging former champion.
At 5'10" with significant reach advantages, Jackson controls distance and dictates striking exchanges against the shorter Figueiredo. His wrestling foundation provides solid takedown defense while keeping fights standing, where his boxing arsenal shines brightest.
This represents a classic crossroads bout where Jackson seeks to break into elite contention while Figueiredo attempts to salvage his championship dreams. Jackson's youth, size, and current form make him a dangerous test for a fighter showing signs of wear from years of championship-level warfare.
Figueiredo vs. Jackson Pick: Figueiredo 29.5 Significant Strikes
UFC Rio pick via the PrizePicks MMA board.
- Figueiredo comes into his matchup at UFC Rio with back-to-back losses for only the second time in his UFC career.
- The former flyweight champion averages 2.82 significant strikes and throws 5.22 strikes per minute.
- The Brazilian bantamweight contender has landed at least 45 significant strikes in three out of his last five fights.
- Figueiredo has never been knocked out in his UFC career — his only stoppage victory was a doctor stoppage against former flyweight champion Brandon Moreno.
Vicente Luque vs. Joel Alvarez Prediction & Preview
Luque (23-11-1) enters his UFC Rio homecoming looking to redeem himself in front of a passionate Brazilian audience following a difficult stretch in his welterweight (170 lbs) career. The "Silent Assassin" has endured a challenging period with losses to established contenders, though his recent submission victory over Themba Gorimbo showed flashes of his vintage finishing ability.
Known for his aggressive striking combinations and dangerous submission game, Luque's 11 knockouts and nine submissions demonstrate his multi-faceted finishing threat. His experience in high-stakes fights and ability to perform under pressure make him particularly dangerous on home soil.
Joel Alvarez (22-3) makes his welterweight debut riding momentum from three consecutive stoppage victories, including a spectacular flying knee knockout of Drakkar Klose. The Spanish submission specialist has built his reputation on relentless grappling pressure and an incredible 17 submission victories in 22 career wins.
At 6'3" with a lengthy frame, Alvarez's natural size advantages become even more pronounced at welterweight where he can leverage his reach and clinch work. His undefeated record via submission and aggressive pace present unique challenges for opponents who struggle with rangy grapplers.
This stylistic clash pits Luque's veteran striking power against Alvarez's size, youth, and grappling superiority. While Luque's home crowd advantage and knockout threat create early danger, Alvarez's physical tools and submission game could prove decisive if the fight extends beyond the opening exchanges.
Luque vs. Alvarez Pick: 6.25 Minutes Fight Time
UFC Rio pick via the PrizePicks MMA board.
- Luque has 20 finishes (11 KO/TKO/9 SUB) in his 23-win career.
- “The Silent Assassin” has 10 first-round finishes in his 35-fight professional career.
- The Brazilian welterweight comes into this matchup off back-to-back fights that have not reached seven minutes of fight time.
- Alvarez is one of the most dangerous fighters in the UFC, finishing all 22 of his wins (5 TKO/17 SUB).
- “El Fenomeno” has eight first-round finishes in his professional career, coming off a first-round KO against Drakkar Klose.
Jhonata Diniz vs. Mario Pinto Prediction & Preview
Jhonata Diniz (9-1) steps into the UFC octagon brimming with confidence after imposing seven first-round knockouts to date. His lone defeat came via doctor stoppage against Marcin Tybura late last year, testing his resolve.
The 34-year-old Brazilian brings veteran experience from his Santa Fe Team camp, showcasing powerful striking and relentless aggression. His 79.5-inch reach and 258-pound frame enhance his finishing threats against any heavyweight adversary.
Mario Pinto (10-0) answers the call as the undefeated prospect with a reputation for knocking out the opposition. He boasts six stoppages by strikes and one submission victory, illustrating his well-rounded skill set.
The 27-year-old London resident carries momentum from five first-round finishes across various promotions before joining the UFC. His reach advantage at a 6’5″ frame offers significant leverage in both striking exchanges and clinch situations.
Stylistically, this affair presents a clash between Diniz’s powerful boxing and Pinto’s rangy kickboxing pedigree. Diniz prefers to press forward and unload heavy combinations, aiming to overwhelm opponents early in the fight.
Pinto, on the other hand, utilizes dynamic footwork and powerful boxing technique to control distance and set up his devastating KO capabilities. Also, the x-factor could potentially be his underrated grappling game that we’ve yet to see in his short UFC stint, as we’ve seen Diniz struggle in that realm in past fights.
Diniz vs. Pinto Prediction: 11.5 Minutes Fight Time
UFC Rio pick via the PrizePicks MMA board.
- Diniz has seven wins via KO/TKO in his nine-win career.
- Six of his seven KO victories have come in the first round.
- The Brazilian knockout artist has seen a third round only twice in his MMA career.
- Pinto comes into this fight with back-to-back wins, coming in under six minutes — one of which came in under two minutes.
- The Portugal native has finished seven of his 10 victories with six of those coming by KO/TKO.
Ricardo Ramos vs. Kaan Ofli Prediction & Preview
Ricardo Ramos (17-7) returns to the octagon, aiming to reverse a recent downturn in his career with a pivotal featherweight (145 lbs) showdown. The Brazilian veteran brings a well-rounded arsenal highlighted by four knockout victories, seven submissions, and a reputation for high-level scrambles.
After suffering a unanimous decision loss to Chepe Mariscal in March, Ramos seeks redemption by sharpening his precision striking and tightening his defensive grappling. His southpaw stance and 74-inch reach advantage allow him to control distance with crisp jabs before unleashing spinning elbows and body kicks.
Despite mixed results in recent bouts, Ramos’ experience against elite-level competition gives him mental toughness in high-pressure situations. He holds three Performance of the Night bonuses, underscoring his ability to finish opponents when his timing and angles align.
Standing across from him is Australia’s rising star Kaan Ofli (11-4-1), who enters hostile territory searching for his first UFC victory after dropping back-to-back fights to Muhammad Naimov and Mairon Santos. The TUF Season 32 runner up, utilizes his wrestling pace and relentless pressure, which have propelled him to five submission victories in his 11-win career.
This stylistic clash pits Ramos’ diverse finishing threats against Ofli’s grappling dominance. Ramos must stay mobile and avoid prolonged ground exchanges, while Ofli needs to close the distance quickly to capitalize on submission openings and tire the veteran’s cardio.
Ramos vs. Ofli Projection: Ramos 1.5 Takedowns
UFC Rio pick via the PrizePicks MMA board.
- Ramos is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt and world champion
- He has seven wins via submission in his MMA career.
- The Brazilian averages 2.57 takedowns landed and 4.50 attempted per 15 minutes.
- The longtime UFC featherweight has landed at least two takedowns in six of his 14 UFC fights.
- Ofli has yet to defend a takedown in his short UFC career, getting taken down by Naimov on both of his attempts.
Lucas Almeida vs. Michael Aswell Prediction & Preview:
Lucas Almeida (13-4) returns to action looking to regain momentum after splitting his last eight fights. The Brazilian veteran boasts nine career knockouts and five submission victories, showcasing his diverse finishing arsenal.
Known for crisp striking and dangerous knockout power, Almeida carries a 93% finish rate that highlights his threat in every phase of the fight. His southpaw stance and 71-inch reach allow him to control distance while setting up varied attacks on his feet.
Despite recent setbacks to Danny Silva, Andre Fili and Pat Sabatini in three out of his last four, Almeida’s resilience and experience elevate his performance under pressure. He trains at Team Kioshi in Sao Paulo, blending Muay Thai and Brazilian jiu-jitsu to sharpen his skill set.
Michael Aswell (10-3) answers the call as a rising featherweight prospect with five knockout victories. The Texas native earned his UFC debut earlier this year and demonstrated crisp boxing and relentless volume in a short-notice loss to Bolaji Oki.
“The Texas Kid” mixes heavy hands with insane volume — lands 9.10 significant strikes per minute — that frustrates opponents’ defense, breaking them down over time.
Victory here could launch Aswell into featherweight contention while Almeida fights to prove to the UFC brass that he’s still a legit contender.
Almeida vs. Aswell Projection: 143.5 Significant Strikes (Combo)
UFC Rio pick via the PrizePicks MMA board.
- Almeida lands 4.94 significant strikes while throwing 12.66 per minute.
- In his three fights that have gone the distance — dating back to DWCS — he’s landed a combined 240 significant strikes.
- Aswell has landed a staggering 9.10 significant strikes while throwing 20.68 per minute in his two fights inside the octagon.
- “The Texas Kid” has landed a combined 274 significant strikes between his UFC debut and DWCS fights.
UFC Rio Projections & Start Times: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2
Here is the full UFC Rio main card schedule and start times, in reverse order.
UFC Rio: Oliveira vs. Gamrot projections below are via the PrizePicks MMA board as of Friday, October 10.
Charles Oliveira vs. Mateusz Gamrot – Main Event
- Lightweight
- Expected start Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
- Oliveira Projections: 32.5 Significant Strikes, 0.5 Takedowns (Demon)
- Gamrot Projection: 48.5 Significant Strikes, 3.5 Takedowns
- Significant Strikes (Combo): 80.5
- Fight Time Projection: 16.5 Minutes
- Rounds Projection: 2.5 Total Rounds (Goblin)
Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Montel Jackson – Co-Main Event
- Bantamweight
- Expected start Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
- Figueiredo Projections: 29.5 Significant Strikes
- Jackson Projections: 37.5 Significant Strikes, 1.5 Takedowns (Demon)
- Significant Strikes (Combo): 66.5
- Rounds Projection: 2.5 Total Rounds (Goblin)
Vicente Luque vs. Joel Alvarez
- Welterweight
- Expected start Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
- Luque Projection: 21.5 Significant Strikes
- Alvarez Projection: 29.5 Significant Strikes, 0.5 Takedowns (Demon)
- Significant Strikes (Combo): 50.5
- Fight Time Projection: 6.25 Minutes
- Rounds Projection: 0.5 Total Rounds (Goblin)
Jhonata Diniz vs. Mario Pinto
- Heavyweight
- Expected start Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
- Diniz Projections: 38.5 Significant Strikes
- Pinto Projection: 32.5 Significant Strikes
- Significant Strikes (Combo): 70.5
- Fight Time Projection: 11.5 Minutes
- Rounds Projection: 1.5 (Goblin)
Ricardo Ramos vs. Kaan Ofli
- Featherweight
- Expected start Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Ramos Projections: 34.5 Significant Strikes, 1.5 Takedowns
- Ofli Projection: 27.5 Significant Strikes
- Significant Strikes (Combo): 62.5
- Rounds Projection: 2.5 (Goblin)
- Fight Time Projection: 14.99 Minutes
Lucas Almeida vs. Michael Aswell
- Featherweight
- Expected start Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Almeida Projections: 66.5 Significant Strikes
- Aswell Projection: 76.5 Significant Strikes
- Significant Strikes (Combo): 143.5
- Rounds Projection: 2.5 (Goblin)
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UFC Rio: Oliveira vs. Gamrot is set to deliver an explosive Saturday night, featuring two elite lightweight contenders who are determined to leave their mark in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
The main card gets underway at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+, broadcasting live from Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
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